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Created Thu 11th Sep 12:50pm PDT by ratel
All questions » World » Americas » 

Who will win the riding of Central Nova?

Settled as Peter McKay (Conservative)

Peter MacKay won by over 5000 votes (Elizabeth May came second).
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/riding/013/

Background:

This is the riding in central nova scotia where Green Party leader Elizabeth May will be running against the Conservative Defense Minister (and forming PC leader) Peter McKay. The Liberals have also decided not to run a candidate out of leader's courtesy for the Greens. Who will win?
Initial odds:
Peter McKay (Conservative) - 50%
Elizabeth May (Green) - 25%
Louise Lorefice (NDP) - 25%


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Peter McKay (Conservative)
84%
Elizabeth May (Green) - 25%
15%
Louise Lorefice (NDP) - 25%
1%
Activity: H$14,549
Settled as Peter McKay (Conservative) on Wed 15th Oct 9:57am PDT

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 9:57am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Peter McKay (Conservative): 50%, Elizabeth May (Green) - 25%: 30%, Louise Lorefice (NDP) - 25%: 20%

Action history:

Created Thu 11th Sep 12:50pm PDT by ratel
Changed Suspend date Sat 11th Oct 9:36am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: was: "2008-10-15 15:59:00"
Suspended Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 15th Oct 2:33am PDT by mork[Power User]: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/riding/013/
Settled as 'Peter McKay (Conservative)' Wed 15th Oct 9:57am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Peter MacKay won by over 5000 votes (Elizabeth May came second).
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/riding/013/

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 9:57am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (41)

41 predictions

5 weeks ago
kirin predicted Peter McKay (Conservative) (H$500 at 83%)
5 weeks ago
canadianveggie predicted Elizabeth May (Green) - 25% (H$250 at 14%)
5 weeks ago
aland predicted Peter McKay (Conservative) (H$250 at 86%)
5 weeks ago
randburg predicted Peter McKay (Conservative) (H$1,000 at 73%)
5 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Elizabeth May (Green) - 25% (H$100 at 26%)
more

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