Created Thu 11th Sep 2008 11:50am PST by

Who will win the riding of Central Nova?

Settled as Peter McKay (Conservative)

Peter MacKay won by over 5000 votes (Elizabeth May came second).
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/riding/013/

Background:

Background: This is the riding in central nova scotia where Green Party leader Elizabeth May will be running against the Conservative Defense Minister (and forming PC leader) Peter McKay. The Liberals have also decided not to run a candidate out of leader's courtesy for the Greens. Who will win?
Initial odds:
Peter McKay (Conservative) - 50%
Elizabeth May (Green) - 25%
Louise Lorefice (NDP) - 25%

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Peter McKay (Conservative)

84%

Elizabeth May (Green) - 25%

15%

Louise Lorefice (NDP) - 25%

Settled as Peter McKay (Conservative) on Wed 15th Oct 2008 8:57am PST

Activity: H$14,549
Predictions: 41
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2008 8:57am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Peter McKay (Conservative): 50%, Elizabeth May (Green) - 25%: 30%, Louise Lorefice (NDP) - 25%: 20%

Action history:

Created Thu 11th Sep 2008 11:50am PST by

ratel

Changed Suspend date Sat 11th Oct 2008 8:36am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: was: "2008-10-15 15:59:00"

Suspended Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Wed 15th Oct 2008 1:33am PST by

mork

: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/riding/013/

Settled as 'Peter McKay (Conservative)' Wed 15th Oct 2008 8:57am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: Peter MacKay won by over 5000 votes (Elizabeth May came second).
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/riding/013/

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Predictions (41)

1 year ago

kirin

predicted Peter McKay (Conservative) (H$500 at 83%)

1 year ago

canadianveggie Level 14, Prophet (H$136,323)

predicted Elizabeth May (Green) - 25% (H$250 at 14%)

1 year ago

aland

predicted Peter McKay (Conservative) (H$250 at 86%)

1 year ago

randburg Level 20, Hubdub God (H$5,033,007)

predicted Peter McKay (Conservative) (H$1,000 at 73%)

1 year ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

predicted Elizabeth May (Green) - 25% (H$100 at 26%)

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