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Who will get this year's Nobel Prize in Literature?

Settled as a male individual

French novelist Jean-Marie Gustave Le Clézio was named the winner this morning and cited by the committee as an "author of new departures, poetic adventure and sensual ecstasy, explorer of a humanity beyond and below the reigning civilization." Le Clézio is responsible for more than 40 books, only 12 of which have been translated into English.

http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2008/10/jean-marie_gustave_le_clzio_wi.html

Background:

The Nobel Prize in Literature
The very first Nobel Prize in Literature was awarded in 1901 to the French poet and philosopher Sully Prudhomme, who in his poetry showed the "rare combination of the qualities of both heart and intellect". Over the years, the Nobel Prize in Literature has distinguished the works of authors from many different languages and cultural backgrounds. The prize has been awarded to unknown masters as well as authors acclaimed worldwide.

Nominations for 2008
197 names were submitted for the 2008 Nobel Peace Prize, 33 of which are organizations. The Nobel Committees in Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, Literature and the Prize Committee for Economics each usually receives 250-300 names every year. The names of the nominees cannot be revealed until 50 years later.

Announcements of the 2008 Nobel Prizes
According to tradition, the Swedish Academy will set the date for its announcement of the Nobel Prize in Literature later.

http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/literature/
http://www.nobelprize.org/prize_announcements/
http://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/nomination_facts.html

If the prize is awarded to "person X and his staff", this question settles "individual". If the prize is awarded to "the university of X, with director Y", this question settles "organization". I did not make an advantage in the starting odds for males, although nowadays reality sadly still speaks a different language.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

a male individual
70%
a female individual
28%
multiple male individuals
1%
multiple female individuals
0%
multiple male and female individuals
0%
other (eg: organization, institute)
1%
Activity: H$18,279
Settled as a male individual on Thu 9th Oct 2:40pm PDT

Suspend date: Wed 8th Oct 4am PDT Settlement date: Thu 9th Oct 2:40pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 8th Oct 4am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: a male individual: 45%, a female individual: 45%, multiple male individuals: 3%, multiple female individuals: 3%, multiple male and female individuals: 3%, other (eg: organization, institute): 1%

Action history:

Created Thu 11th Sep 1:09pm PDT by kruijs[Power User]
Changed Suspend date Mon 6th Oct 11:59pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: was: "2008-10-13 04:00:00"
Suspended Wed 8th Oct 4am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 9th Oct 12:45pm PDT by orlin: One man.

http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/literature/laureates/2008/
Settled as 'a male individual' Thu 9th Oct 2:40pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: French novelist Jean-Marie Gustave Le Clézio was named the winner this morning and cited by the committee as an "author of new departures, poetic adventure and sensual ecstasy, explorer of a humanity beyond and below the reigning civilization." Le Clézio is responsible for more than 40 books, only 12 of which have been translated into English.

http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2008/10/jean-marie_gustave_le_clzio_wi.html

Suspend date: Wed 8th Oct 4am PDT Settlement date: Thu 9th Oct 2:40pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 8th Oct 4am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (73)

73 predictions

6 weeks ago
snem predicted a male individual (H$100 at 70%)
6 weeks ago
snem predicted a female individual (H$100 at 28%)
6 weeks ago
junk__mail predicted a female individual (H$22 at 19%)
6 weeks ago
mreid predicted a female individual (H$50 at 19%)
6 weeks ago
snem predicted a female individual (H$100 at 16%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 orchidnyc
I like these questions! :)
posted 10 weeks ago
Sheesh ralph naders getting desprate to win something. now hes running for the nobel literature prize to! GIVE IT UP NADER! YOU CANT WIN AND NEVER WILL WIN!
posted 10 weeks ago

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