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Who will get this year's Nobel Prize in Chemistry?

Settled as multiple male individuals

Two American and one Japanese male scientists have won this year's Nobel Prize for Chemistry, for their discovery of a green fluorescent protein that has become a key tool in bioscience.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKTRE4973TM20081008

Background:

The Nobel Prize in Chemistry

In 1901 the very first Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded to Jacobus H. van 't Hoff for his work on rates of reaction, chemical equilibrium, and osmotic pressure. In more recent years, the Chemistry Nobel Laureates have increased our understanding of chemical processes and their molecular basis, and have also contributed to many of the technological advancements we enjoy today.

Nominations for 2008
197 names were submitted for the 2008 Nobel Peace Prize, 33 of which are organizations. The Nobel Committees in Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, Literature and the Prize Committee for Economics each usually receives 250-300 names every year. The names of the nominees cannot be revealed until 50 years later.

Announcements of the 2008 Nobel Prizes
Chemistry - Wednesday, October 8, 11:45 a.m. CET at the earliest

http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/chemistry/
http://www.nobelprize.org/prize_announcements/
http://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/nomination_facts.html

If the prize is awarded to "person X and his staff", this question settles "individual". If the prize is awarded to "the university of X, with director Y", this question settles "organization". I did not make an advantage in the starting odds for males, although nowadays reality sadly still speaks a different language.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

a male individual
10%
a female individual
3%
multiple male individuals
58%
multiple female individuals
4%
multiple male and female individuals
17%
other (eg: organization, institute)
9%
Activity: H$10,012
Settled as multiple male individuals on Wed 8th Oct 3:10am PDT

Suspend date: Wed 8th Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 8th Oct 3:10am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 8th Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: a male individual: 20%, a female individual: 20%, multiple male individuals: 10%, multiple female individuals: 10%, multiple male and female individuals: 20%, other (eg: organization, institute): 20%

Action history:

Created Thu 11th Sep 1:21pm PDT by kruijs[Power User]
Changed Suspend date Mon 6th Oct 4am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: was: "2008-10-08 02:45:00"
Changed Suspend date Mon 6th Oct 4:02am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: was: "2008-10-07 20:45:00"
Changed Suspend date Mon 6th Oct 4:03am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: was: "2008-10-07 00:30:00"
Changed Suspend date Mon 6th Oct 11:43pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: was: "2008-10-08 00:30:00"
Changed Suspend date Mon 6th Oct 11:44pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: was: "2008-10-08 23:59:00"
Suspended Mon 6th Oct 11:53pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: Suspend date reached.
Settled as 'multiple male individuals' Wed 8th Oct 3:10am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Two American and one Japanese male scientists have won this year's Nobel Prize for Chemistry, for their discovery of a green fluorescent protein that has become a key tool in bioscience.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKTRE4973TM20081008

Suspend date: Wed 8th Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 8th Oct 3:10am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 8th Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (54)

54 predictions

6 weeks ago
bernardo predicted multiple male and female individuals (H$28 at 17%)
6 weeks ago
bernardo predicted multiple male individuals (H$50 at 60%)
7 weeks ago
snem predicted multiple male and female individuals (H$20 at 17%)
8 weeks ago
ihydsqrl predicted multiple male individuals (H$3 at 59%)
8 weeks ago
shojun predicted multiple male individuals (H$10 at 59%)
more

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