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Will Kim Jong-Il be the leader of North Korea on Feb 1, 2009?

Current forecast: 68% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 68% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

According to the CIA World Factbook, the "leader", or "highest administrative authority", of North Korea is the Chairman of the National Defense Commission, a position Kim Jong-Il has had since 1994. Will Kim Jong-Il still serve in this position on Feb 1, 2009?

If he ceases to serve as leader of North Korea any time before then, the market will be settled. There will be no need to wait until Feb 2009.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source, or according to the CIA World Factbook: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
68%
No
32%
Activity: H$32,312
Question suspends in 10 weeks

Suspend date: Sat 31st Jan 2009 8:59pm PST (10 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Thu 11th Sep 4:34pm PDT by tarpash

Suspend date: Sat 31st Jan 2009 8:59pm PST (10 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (81)

81 predictions

6 hours ago
capecodviking predicted Yes (H$2 at 68%)
1 day ago
romanofski predicted No (H$200 at 32%)
2 days ago
andrewpmk predicted Yes (H$20 at 68%)
4 days ago
sonofagun predicted Yes (H$100 at 68%)
2 weeks ago
scoppage predicted Yes (H$100 at 58%)
more

Comments (3)

Does it count as "yes" if he dies, is stuffed, and is propped up at state functions?
posted 10 weeks ago
I think the little fella cashed in his ticket a long time ago. They buried him in a shoe box and repaced him with the second ugliest little man in Asia. That is the story I heard.
posted 8 weeks ago
  3 gadget666
is that pic taken from "team america"? btw, mr ill is living proof of the existence of "short man syndrome"
posted 4 weeks ago

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