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Which hubdubber will be #2 on the All Time Net Worth list @00:00GMT Jan 1 2009?

Current forecast: sdchargers (82% chance61%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is sdchargers with a probability of 82% (up 61% in last 1 day)

Cuz it's more interesting to predict #2.

Choices compiled from top nine active hubdubbers at time of question creation.


Settlement details: As reported by hubdub

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

orlin
3%
infernalmachine
1%
sdchargers
82%
elly
2%
destry
1%
fingers_of_fury
0%
mtf0528
1%
jenniandboys
1%
melvster
6%
OTHER
4%
Activity: H$53,038
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 4pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: orlin: 10%, infernalmachine: 10%, sdchargers: 10%, elly: 10%, destry: 10%, fingers_of_fury: 10%, mtf0528: 10%, jenniandboys: 10%, melvster: 10%, OTHER: 10%

Action history:

Created Fri 12th Sep 5:28pm PDT by carnacthemagnificent

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 4pm PST (5 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (106)

106 predictions

1 week ago
pitchedoutsideleg predicted sdchargers (H$5,000 at 88%)
1 week ago
bgrigore predicted sdchargers (H$1,000 at 69%)
1 week ago
gtown predicted sdchargers (H$20 at 66%)
1 week ago
bgrigore predicted sdchargers (H$1,000 at 62%)
3 weeks ago
youbet predicted OTHER (H$100 at 13%)

Comments (9)

  1 bigken1
I am not sure of this question.. Not what it means, but why people are predicting as they are.. Perhaps someone can explain (i hope). If orlin has the top money now, etc.. why isn't he being more preferred than sdchargers? (for example)... any thoughts? thx
posted 9 weeks ago
Perhaps, the conventional wisdom is that orlin will remain in the #1 spot and will not be the one who settles this question?
posted 9 weeks ago
  3 bigken1
Oh, yes, perhaps the #2 thing is it.. I really don't read these questions so precisely as they need to be read...
getting old. :( ... Well, that must be it.. sorry folks.. still any thoughts on how u predict #2..?
posted 9 weeks ago
@bigken - bet on those who play the stock market questions
posted 9 weeks ago
in other words - not me
posted 9 weeks ago
  6 bigken1
Right, well, I finally figured out something. That is that the top people can try and arrange things to make money on this, and have money to manipulate the result of this market, so anyone like me (a poor schlub sp?) , can easily lose a bunch of $H.. Anyway, I will keep an eye on it, as it is an interesting question, but there might be some chaotic behavior near the end of the year... ....
posted 9 weeks ago
Unless a poor schlub like you gets lucky picking a few of the choices with initially low percentages, and cashes out when there's a big move in the money (most likely "vanity" wagering).
posted 9 weeks ago
  8 bigken1
Right carnac. I did it the other way around. I cashed in a lot of my $h , and then put a small amount on sdchargers, just to follow the market, and now I see I have lost half of it.... :(

Anyway, that's the way it goes....
posted 9 weeks ago
Anyone with H$ on me...
SELL SELL!!!

Too late... I'm already at 0%
posted 2 weeks ago

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