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What will be the average global temperature for September 2008

Settled as +0.30C to +0.399C (+0.54F to +0.72F)

Average global temperature for 2008/09 is 0.376

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh%2Bsh/monthly

Background:

The UK Met Office produce a monthly figure for the global average temperature each month relative to the average for the period 1960-91 (see: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh%2Bsh/monthly) Figures recently have been anywhere in the range -0.2C to +0.8C.


Settlement details: The data will be the first published results on http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh%2Bsh/monthly rounded down to the nearest 0.01C

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

+0.50C or more (more than +0.9F)
11%
+0.40C to +0.499C (+0.72F to +0.90F)
27%
+0.30C to +0.399C (+0.54F to +0.72F)
32%
+0.20C to +0.299C (+0.36F to +0.54F)
14%
+0.10C to +0.199C (+0.18F to +0.36F)
9%
less than +0.10C (less than +0.18F)
8%
Activity: H$6,295
Settled as +0.30C to +0.399C (+0.54F to +0.72F) on Sun 19th Oct 6:57pm PDT

Suspend date: Tue 30th Sep 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Sun 19th Oct 6:57pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 30th Sep 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: +0.50C or more (more than +0.9F): 14%, +0.40C to +0.499C (+0.72F to +0.90F): 22%, +0.30C to +0.399C (+0.54F to +0.72F): 17%, +0.20C to +0.299C (+0.36F to +0.54F): 23%, +0.10C to +0.199C (+0.18F to +0.36F): 15%, less than +0.10C (less than +0.18F): 9%

Action history:

Created Mon 15th Sep 6:30am PDT by isonomia
Suspended Tue 30th Sep 4:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 19th Oct 6:35pm PDT by gtown: .030 to .399:

2008/09 0.376 0.391 0.360 0.566 0.186 0.376 0.370 0.567 0.185 0.567 0.185
Settled as '+0.30C to +0.399C (+0.54F to +0.72F)' Sun 19th Oct 6:57pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: Average global temperature for 2008/09 is 0.376

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh%2Bsh/monthly

Suspend date: Tue 30th Sep 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Sun 19th Oct 6:57pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 30th Sep 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (28)

28 predictions

7 weeks ago
frostybeard predicted +0.30C to +0.399C (+0.54F to +0.72F) (H$20 at 32%)
7 weeks ago
gtown predicted +0.30C to +0.399C (+0.54F to +0.72F) (H$10 at 31%)
7 weeks ago
horiconfrog predicted +0.30C to +0.399C (+0.54F to +0.72F) (H$20 at 31%)
7 weeks ago
curly predicted +0.30C to +0.399C (+0.54F to +0.72F) (H$50 at 31%)
7 weeks ago
sdchargers[Power User] predicted +0.40C to +0.499C (+0.72F to +0.90F) (H$100 at 26%)
more

Comments (7)

  1 bigken1
Hey, great question!! isonomia..
by the way, what does isonomia stand for? anything?
Anyway, great question, and nice starting percentages too!!! Good luck on hubdub.
posted 9 weeks ago
  2 isonomia
Isonomia is a greek word meaning legal or political equality. It really means "though we may all be different, rich poor, gifted, work-addicted/shy" in politics and the law we are all equal.
posted 9 weeks ago
  3 bigken1
Hi, I thought isonomia was a condition of not being able to sleep..
(insomnia) :)
What a nice word. It should be true (the equality in politics and law). One person , one vote; justice is blind, etc.
but I am afraid in the US , it is not, sadly to say. Where are u located? Are u a lawyer? Your question deals with
global change; are u interested in this? I am.
well, take care, and great question again. I bet on a few, to get the ball rolling.
posted 9 weeks ago
  4 kruijs[Power User]
great name,
great question,

:-)
posted 9 weeks ago
This page explains the data file:
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/time-series.html

The first entry after the date is the best estimate of the anomaly.
posted 8 weeks ago
  6 tisha[Admin]
@pitchedoutsideleg - legend. I was just looking at the data table and thinking 'wha???'
posted 8 weeks ago
  7 tisha[Admin]
September figures not yet published - I'll settle this question as soon as they are.
posted 6 weeks ago

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