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Will a DJIA circuit breaker trip by the end of 2008?

Current forecast: 18% chance 18%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 18% likely to happen (down 18% in last 1 day)

To prevent a catastrophic market crash, there are circuit breakers that automatically halt all activity on the NYSE. These are tied to the DJIA; the first kicks in at a 10% drop. For the third quarter, this means the market would have to drop at least 1,200 points in one day; the numbers will be recalibrated for Q4. Will we see this sort of crash or, even in light of the increasing financial turmoil, stay out of that kind of trouble?

http://www.nyse.com/press/circuit_breakers.html


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
18%
No
82%
Activity: H$92,407
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 10am PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 5%

Action history:

Created Mon 15th Sep 8:18am PDT by pixelpaws

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 10am PST (5 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (64)

64 predictions

1 week ago
jpkoester1 predicted No (H$500 at 73%)
1 week ago
morgie predicted Yes (H$20 at 35%)
1 week ago
storekeeperathscm predicted No (H$20 at 65%)
1 week ago
marshall predicted No (H$100 at 56%)
1 week ago
dtoxify predicted No (H$20 at 56%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 pixelpaws
$16,000 in activity? I feel special. :)

Today's 777 point drop was the largest single-day decline in the history of the Dow. Even that war more than 400 points short of tripping the breaker.
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 pixelpaws
Per the site in the background information, the new circuit breaker level for Q4 is a 1,100 point drop in the DOW. Keep in mind that, to halt trading (to "trip the breaker"), it must hit that level before 2:30 PM ET. Otherwise, the market would be free to continue trading unless it hit the next breaker, after a 2,200 point (20%) decline, at which point the market would close for the day.
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 cognos[Power User]
I understand that ...

"Ahead of the market’s open, Dow Jones industrial average futures fell the maximum allowed limit of 550, or 6.27 percent, to 8,224. That triggered circuit breakers that automatically freeze selling until the market’s 9:30 a.m. EDT open."

doesn't count, but maybe today's the day.
posted 4 weeks ago

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