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Will Spore sell at least two million copies during September 2008?

Settled as No

Just passed one million
http://www.gamespot.com/pc/strategy/spore/news.html?sid=6198159&om_act=convert&om_clk=newsfeatures&tag=newsfeatures;title;1

Background:

'Lazard Capital Markets senior VP, Colin Sebastian, has stated his belief that September will be an important month for Electronic Arts, as it releases ... Spore, which he expects to sell 2 million units in the US" -- http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/spore-expected-to-sell-2-million-in-us-in-september

"In interviews with retailers across the country, there is ample anecdotal evidence that the game is doing well, especially for a PC title. However, its initial sales don't appear to be in the same ballpark as massive hits like Grand Theft Auto IV, from Rockstar Games, Guitar Hero III, from Activision or Wii Fit, from Nintendo. " -- http://news.cnet.com/8301-13772_3-10040941-52.html

Will EA manage to push that many copies of the game out or will all the fuss over DRM keep it from hitting the magic number? Official sales numbers for the game likely won't be available until at least early October. Starting odds set at 40% to account for the CNET report.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
6%
No
94%
Activity: H$55,814
Settled as No on Thu 2nd Oct 4:16pm PDT

Suspend date: Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Thu 2nd Oct 4:16pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 15th Sep 8:58am PDT by pixelpaws
Suspended Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 2nd Oct 12:48pm PDT by s99nj: This should only be PC, because that is the real version of spore (as confirmed by Will Wright, its creator), the other versions are NOT spore, they are spin-offs.

Suspend date: Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Thu 2nd Oct 4:16pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (73)

73 predictions

7 weeks ago
exilpat predicted Yes (H$20 at 6%)
7 weeks ago
gtown predicted Yes (H$1 at 6%)
7 weeks ago
notwithoutbling predicted No (H$230 at 94%)
7 weeks ago
philphan1 predicted No (H$100 at 94%)
7 weeks ago
lvnmom22 predicted No (H$5,000 at 93%)
more

Comments (3)

I have to say that Im more than a little disappointed with Spore's gameplay.
posted 9 weeks ago
Almost forgot, are you counting all the released versions of Spore? Or just PC? Because that would obviously make a huge difference!
posted 9 weeks ago
  3 s99nj
Should only be PC, because that is the real version of spore, the other versions are NOT spore, they are spin-offs.
posted 7 weeks ago

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