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Will Apple use it's "kill switch" to wipe the Podcaster app from iPhones?

Current forecast: 29% chance 3%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 29% likely to happen (down 3% in last 1 day)

Recently, Alex Sokirynsky, the developer of the Podcaster iPhone app, decided to use a new and legal way to distribute his application after Apple refused to allow it in the iPhone App Store. Apple allows for Ad Hoc app distribution, intended for use by large businesses who want to distribute apps among their employees. Sokirynsky has taken advantage of the Ad Hoc distribution method to release his app to the world. You do not need a jailbroken iPhone to download and use Podcaster.

Full story at: http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/podcaster_developer_uses_little_known_ad_hoc_to_distribute_banned_app.php

and: http://almerica.blogspot.com/

From the article:
It seems like Apple is stuck between the proverbial "rock and a hard place." If they choose to ignore this, Ad Hoc distribution will almost certainly become the method of choice for distributing banned apps. But if they pull the "kill switch," they could then potentially alienate their community of developers. What do you think Apple will do?

Question should settle as YES if Apple uses it's hidden kill switch to either remove or disable the Podcaster app from running on iphones or ipod touches by Dec. 31st, 2008.

Question should settle as NO if Apple has not used it's kill switch to disable/delete Podcaster by Dec. 31st, 2008.

It is conceivable that Apple would use the kill switch to disable a number of iPhones, but not all iPhones, as an initial test of the kill switch. If this happens before Dec. 31st 2008, it will count as use of the kill switch (a YES result).


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
29%
No
71%
Activity: H$3,914
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Mon 15th Sep 11:16am PDT by geoff

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
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Predictions (21)

21 predictions

6 days ago
yoshi7865 predicted No (H$182 at 71%)
1 week ago
supi predicted Yes (H$10 at 30%)
2 weeks ago
jseaver predicted No (H$600 at 70%)
2 weeks ago
zarjay predicted No (H$20 at 69%)
2 weeks ago
geoff predicted No (H$1,000 at 69%)
more

Comments (2)

How could Apple possible kill the application when it's not distributed through the App Store? The "kill switch" mechanism could only conceivably work by associating a unique ID with an application, and then instructing each iPhone, through a software update or a network-accessible black list, to not run the application with a specific ID. If Apple does not distribute the app, it cannot assign it a unique ID, and so cannot kill it.
posted 8 weeks ago
  2 geoff
fishescycle, theoretically apple could use the name, or hash of any application to blacklist it, so they can "kill" the podcaster app if they want to. If you're interested, the current apple "kill switch" url is: https://iphone-services.apple.com/clbl/unauthorizedApps
posted 8 weeks ago

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