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Will there be a White Christmas this year in Chicago?

Background: To be considered as a "White Christmas", there must be 1 inch of snow on the ground at any time during 25th December (local time).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Christmas

Clarification: The market only states that an inch of snow be on the ground, so its freshness is not a factor. Settlement will most likely depend on the reports from Wunderground. So as long as the almanac states that an inch or more in depth is in Chicago the market settles. I believe Wunderground goes by the snow depth reports from O'Hare.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
90%
No
10%
Settled as Yes on Fri 26th Dec 2008 9:40pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 26th Dec 2008 9:40pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 24th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 15th Sep 2008 11:12am PST by kruijs[Power User]
Suspended Wed 24th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 25th Dec 2008 10:40am PST by conspiracy2riot: Currently
Snow Depth: 6.0 in

http://www.wunderground.com/US/IL/Chicago/KORD.html
Settlement requested Fri 26th Dec 2008 6:38am PST by deanthoreau: You will see by this map that yup chicago had a white xmas
http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/SnowDepth.html
Settled as 'Yes' Fri 26th Dec 2008 9:40pm PST by ryanj: Chicago had at least 6 inches of snow depth on the 25
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KORD/2008/12/25/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 26th Dec 2008 9:40pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 24th Dec 2008 8:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (141)

47 weeks ago
horiconfrog predicted Yes (H$50 at 90%)
47 weeks ago
deanthoreau predicted No (H$20 at 15%)
47 weeks ago
mattg42 predicted Yes (H$5,000 at 83%)
47 weeks ago
nuaetius predicted Yes (H$31 at 81%)
47 weeks ago
gotmick predicted Yes (H$100 at 81%)

Comments (20)

its already getting a bit cold, i have to say this year is the best chance in a long time.
posted 1 year ago
I know! Considering the Large Haldrom Collider didnt kill us i think we should be extra extravagent on the celebrations this year!
posted 1 year ago
  3 newsiebri
Is this just one inch of snow period? Or one inch of fresh snow falling that day?
posted 47 weeks ago
  4 deanthoreau
yeah, what aobut snow already on the ground? and who is going to measure it?
posted 47 weeks ago
  5 chatarra
@Dean
It may prove difficult to actually measure if Chicago will have a white Christmas
The city may be closed due to heavy snowfall.
posted 47 weeks ago
  6 deanthoreau
Umm true but in that case they will just reschedule xmas to the 26th
posted 47 weeks ago
  7 chatarra
No work on Friday - off for everybody

Chicago will be the envy of the nation.
Yeeaahhhhhhh!!!!!!
posted 47 weeks ago
  8 deanthoreau
oh chatarra, you should do the question will the CBOT be closed on Friday due to weather :) and by the way is your name a combination of the words chat and tara as in chat house?
posted 47 weeks ago
  9 chatarra
Great idea on the question.

As for the origin of Chatarra:
Before joining Hubdub, Chatarra is a name I adopted to identify spam email, when signing up for dubious internet offerings.
Chatarra is Spanish for Junk (Scrap Metal)

When I first started hubdubbing, I wasn't sure if I would
1) stay around
or
2) receive junk email from being a member
so being the naturally suspicious person that I am, I started my account with my spam email name.
Now, I wish I could change it, but I have too much tied up in winnings to make that sort of a change.
posted 47 weeks ago
  10 deanthoreau
well look at it this way chatarra. Your Hubbdubbie name didnt just go up in value so did chatarra in the good ol usa...they are stealing man hole covers aorund here cause the scrap metal prices are so good :)
posted 47 weeks ago
  11 chatarra
That whole (hole) man hole covers things really scares me.

I have ridden a motorcycle to 43 different states so far, and I love to ride.
Http://www.MotorcycleManiac.net
Although I considered teaching MSF classes, (Motorcycle Safety Foundation),
I think it would be difficult (at best) to recover after hitting a missing man hole cover.
posted 47 weeks ago
  12 deanthoreau
sure would...its horrible in the city...they are actually chaining them and welding them in place..then having to carbon arc them when they need to open them...
be careful chatarra, economy going to get a lot worse and metal thieving will happen more.
Well let them know cause at least in a car u screw up the car but u are in ok shape;
posted 47 weeks ago
HELLO??????

I sent the info in that there was 6 inches on the ground yesterday at 10 something a.m. PST complete with a link.

Are we going to settle this anytime soon? I tend to bet on questions that are supposed to settle soon and I'm sitting here with the bulk of my capital tied up in suspended questions.

I feel like I've been visited by the IRS and my assets are frozen in limbo.
posted 47 weeks ago
  14 deanthoreau
psst conspiracy....sure its not your limbo frozen to your assets?
posted 47 weeks ago
  15 kruijs[Power User]
hey, consp2, maybe the cat-ed is having a nice Christmas time.

Why don't you let him?

- peace on earth -
posted 47 weeks ago
@ dean....ya know...I think I'd have more information on my limbo if I had some Viagra laying around.

@krujis, it appears my whining is for naught. it's all beyond my control, man.
but i do maintain that certain weather questions are sometimes best settled as soon as possible. in this case, the information had better be accessible as the link i sent was a live page giving real time info. since Chicago did not get any new snow after the suspension date, what was reported ON the ground yesterday in real time is all i had to offer the editor.
i've no way of knowing if they can verify that thru archives. and if they can't and they wind up returning everyone's money, all i've done is tie up my capital ruining my ability to do anything on this site.
i already hate the new site format....add this to the mix and the site just becomes more frustrating than interesting.
plus i already have so very much against christmas....
posted 47 weeks ago
  17 deanthoreau
lol conspiracy..u want me to send u some? CIA dropped off some to me earlier today :)
ok conspiracy u need to go hang out at huffingtonpost and www.thenation.com a while bro.... u will feel beter,
posted 47 weeks ago
  18 kruijs[Power User]
consp, what about the site format do you hate? you could drop it in the "contact us" box or the forum. they will have an eye for your opinion, for sure.
posted 47 weeks ago
@dean took your advice and i now have a profile picture.

@krujis i don't like that the format changed on the site here. i'd spoken to jen about it previously. a week or two ago i accidentally was included in this new page when the administrators were supposed to be checking it out. i hated it then. i liked all my predictions being in chronological order and on one page. this new crap has me opening pages all over and clicking all the time to return to where i was. it's just more time consuming and i have patience issues.
so i also wrote again when they made the change because there were things i could not initially find....why? cuz their like 2-3 clicks away when they used to be only one. but it's doubtful anything is going to change.
but now my biggest issue is this wad i stuck into this market thinking i'd have it plus my winnings BACK by now. i feel like i'm being punished. meanwhile i'm trying to whittle what i can in predictions down so i dont have so many to page thru to view.
posted 47 weeks ago
WHAT is going on here today? I have cashed in a bunch of bets netting me a little over 200 bucks in the last 24 hours. But my net worth is dropping each time I show up here. Nothing settled yet, but I'm down 800 dollars for absolutely NO reason.
Now as I came on this page, again for no reason I gained 41 of the lost 800 back.
Anybody know what's going on?
posted 47 weeks ago

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