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Created Mon 15th Sep 2:14pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

What will be the result of Monday's Gallup Presidential Poll?

Settled as Obama leads by 3,4, or 5 points

Obama +4
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110578/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-44.aspx

Background:

Things seem to have settled down now, with McCain holding a narrow margin over Obama the past three day. With another couple weeks to go before the first presidential debate, there isn't much to effect the state of the race... oh except the ECONOMY!!! Wonder who a 500 point drop (6th largest of all time) will effect the polls...

Note: Gallup polls are the result of a 3 day rolling average so the poll released on Monday will be based on surveys taken Friday, Saturday and Sunday.


Settlement details: http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx

posted near 1300 on Monday September 22.
If no poll is posted that day for some reason, will be the next released gallup daily poll.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Obama leads by 9 points or more
1%
Obama leads by 6,7 or 8 points
7%
Obama leads by 3,4, or 5 points
84%
Statistical Tie +/- 2 points
7%
McCain leads by 3,4, or 5 points
0%
McCain leads by 6,7, or 8 points
0%
McCain leads by 9 points or more
0%
Activity: H$137,380
Settled as Obama leads by 3,4, or 5 points on Mon 22nd Sep 11am PDT

Suspend date: Mon 22nd Sep 9:30am PDT Settlement date: Mon 22nd Sep 11am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 22nd Sep 9:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Obama leads by 9 points or more: 1%, Obama leads by 6,7 or 8 points: 4%, Obama leads by 3,4, or 5 points: 20%, Statistical Tie +/- 2 points: 40%, McCain leads by 3,4, or 5 points: 30%, McCain leads by 6,7, or 8 points: 4%, McCain leads by 9 points or more: 1%

Action history:

Created Mon 15th Sep 2:14pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]
Suspended Mon 22nd Sep 9:30am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 22nd Sep 10:39am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Obama +4
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110578/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-44.aspx
Settled as 'Obama leads by 3,4, or 5 points' Mon 22nd Sep 11am PDT by destry[Admin]: Obama +4
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110578/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-44.aspx

Suspend date: Mon 22nd Sep 9:30am PDT Settlement date: Mon 22nd Sep 11am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 22nd Sep 9:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (455)

455 predictions

8 weeks ago
robamichael predicted Statistical Tie +/- 2 points (H$50 at 7%)
8 weeks ago
vaha829 predicted Obama leads by 3,4, or 5 points (H$100 at 85%)
8 weeks ago
laaleelaalee predicted Obama leads by 3,4, or 5 points (H$2,700 at 80%)
8 weeks ago
snem predicted Statistical Tie +/- 2 points (H$20 at 11%)
8 weeks ago
lugamar predicted Obama leads by 6,7 or 8 points (H$20 at 17%)
more

Comments (5)

  1 geoff
I really like these...
posted 9 weeks ago
  2 dragonfangxl
Wow geoff A plus! what a fantastic and riveting comment! Grammer, flawless! Spelling, perfect! You really drew me in with that one! Very substancial! Although i do think it was a little long. Try and shorten them up from now on.
posted 8 weeks ago
  3 richporter
Wow dragonfangxl! An extremely useful comment! You deliver substance and content to civil discourse like no other comment I've ever seen! Your grammAr and spelling is far beyond anything Geoff above can comprehend!
posted 8 weeks ago
  4 robamichael
he is 6 ahead right now, but 3 4 5 has highest?
posted 8 weeks ago
  5 robamichael
nevvverr mind
posted 8 weeks ago

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