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Created Wed 17th Sep 6:14am PDT by rpfreely
All questions » World » Americas » 

In the 2008 Canadian election, which party will come in 2nd?

Settled as Liberal

Liberals came in 2nd with 76 seats
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/federal-election-2008

Background:

According to most polls, the Conservatives are favoured to win this election. The Liberals, though still strong, are slipping and some polls have them in a statistical tie with the NDP. The Bloc and Green trade places for the lowest rung on the ladder, but nothing's impossible in politics.

Category Editor Clarificiation: I'm going to count this as seats won, not pop. vote, because "come in 2nd" is better understood as the actual election results (ie seats). (That doesn't stop someone from creating a question comparing pop vote with seats in some form.)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Conservative
3%
Liberal
94%
NDP
4%
Bloc Quebecois
0%
Green Party
0%
Activity: H$31,156
Settled as Liberal on Wed 15th Oct 9:54am PDT

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 9:54am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Conservative: 25%, Liberal: 45%, NDP: 25%, Bloc Quebecois: 3%, Green Party: 2%

Action history:

Created Wed 17th Sep 6:14am PDT by rpfreely
Changed Description Sat 27th Sep 9:53am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: show details
... the lowest rung on the ladder, but nothing's impossible in ... politics.politics.<br/> <br/> <b>Category Editor Clarificiation:</b> I'm going to count this as seats won, not pop. vote, because "come in 2nd" is better understood as the actual election results (ie seats). (That doesn't stop someone from creating a question comparing pop vote with seats in some form.)
Changed Suspend date Sat 11th Oct 9:38am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: was: "2008-10-14 23:59:00"
Suspended Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 15th Oct 2:27am PDT by mork[Power User]: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/ridings/
Settled as 'Liberal' Wed 15th Oct 9:54am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Liberals came in 2nd with 76 seats
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/federal-election-2008

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 9:54am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (55)

55 predictions

5 weeks ago
shojun predicted Liberal (H$2,000 at 92%)
5 weeks ago
hect0r predicted Liberal (H$150 at 90%)
5 weeks ago
gumbloid predicted Liberal (H$100 at 90%)
5 weeks ago
billy_n_herr predicted NDP (H$20 at 7%)
5 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted NDP (H$100 at 5%)
more

Comments (4)

  1 ratel
nice question.
posted 9 weeks ago
  2 rpfreely
Oh stupid me, there's a big difference in terms of vote count and seat count, and I meant seat count. I wonder if the question has to be voided now?
posted 8 weeks ago
  3 rpfreely
On second thought, anyone looking at the initial likelihoods would've thought I meant vote count, because it was very likely that the BQ would win more seats than the NDP, but highly unlikely that they would get more votes. I would be happy if the question were clarified to show in terms of vote count (not that what I think should be determinative).
posted 8 weeks ago
  4 jakethesnake
I had actually assumed it meant seat count, but that won't affect my vote all that much. It would be nice to have clarity, although, I would also put my money down that the party who came in second for popular vote would also have come in 2nd for seats.
posted 7 weeks ago

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