Created Wed 17th Sep 2008 5:14am PST by

rpfreely Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

In the 2008 Canadian election, which party will come in 2nd?

Settled as Liberal

Liberals came in 2nd with 76 seats
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/federal-election-2008

Background:

Background: According to most polls, the Conservatives are favoured to win this election. The Liberals, though still strong, are slipping and some polls have them in a statistical tie with the NDP. The Bloc and Green trade places for the lowest rung on the ladder, but nothing's impossible in politics.

Category Editor Clarificiation: I'm going to count this as seats won, not pop. vote, because "come in 2nd" is better understood as the actual election results (ie seats). (That doesn't stop someone from creating a question comparing pop vote with seats in some form.)

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Conservative

Liberal

94%

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green Party

Settled as Liberal on Wed 15th Oct 2008 8:54am PST

Activity: H$31,156
Predictions: 55
Comments: 4

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2008 8:54am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Conservative: 25%, Liberal: 45%, NDP: 25%, Bloc Quebecois: 3%, Green Party: 2%

Action history:

Created Wed 17th Sep 2008 5:14am PST by

rpfreely Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

Changed Description Sat 27th Sep 2008 8:53am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: show details

... the lowest rung on the ladder, but nothing's impossible in ... ~~politics.~~politics.<br/> <br/> <b>Category Editor Clarificiation:</b> I'm going to count this as seats won, not pop. vote, because "come in 2nd" is better understood as the actual election results (ie seats). (That doesn't stop someone from creating a question comparing pop vote with seats in some form.)

Changed Suspend date Sat 11th Oct 2008 8:38am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: was: "2008-10-14 23:59:00"

Suspended Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Wed 15th Oct 2008 1:27am PST by

mork

: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/ridings/

Settled as 'Liberal' Wed 15th Oct 2008 8:54am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: Liberals came in 2nd with 76 seats
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/federal-election-2008

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Predictions (55)

1 year ago

shojun Level 13, Psychic (H$66,833)

predicted Liberal (H$2,000 at 92%)

1 year ago

hect0r Level 11, Legend (H$18,579)

predicted Liberal (H$150 at 90%)

1 year ago

gumbloid Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

predicted Liberal (H$100 at 90%)

1 year ago

billy_n_herr Level 2, Novice (H$1,027)

predicted NDP (H$20 at 7%)

1 year ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

predicted NDP (H$100 at 5%)

Comments (4)

ratel

nice question.

posted 1 year ago

rpfreely Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

Oh stupid me, there's a big difference in terms of vote count and seat count, and I meant seat count. I wonder if the question has to be voided now?

posted 1 year ago

rpfreely Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

On second thought, anyone looking at the initial likelihoods would've thought I meant vote count, because it was very likely that the BQ would win more seats than the NDP, but highly unlikely that they would get more votes. I would be happy if the question were clarified to show in terms of vote count (not that what I think should be determinative).

posted 1 year ago

jakethesnake Level 15, Seer (H$278,546)

I had actually assumed it meant seat count, but that won't affect my vote all that much. It would be nice to have clarity, although, I would also put my money down that the party who came in second for popular vote would also have come in 2nd for seats.

posted 1 year ago

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