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How many Hubdubbers will have enough "money" to advertise during Super Bowl XLIV?

Current forecast: two (51% chance11%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is two with a probability of 51% (down 11% in last 1 day)

The Super Bowl is normally the most-watched sporting event on American television. 97.4 million viewers watched this year's championship game. To many viewers, the commercials are more important than the game. Consequently, NBC is asking advertisers to pay $3 million for 30 seconds of commercial time for Super Bowl XLIII. This fee is up from $2.7 million for XLII.

This market will settle when the TV network first announces the advertising rate for the 2010 game (XLIV). It will be based on Hubdubbers' net worths at that time. A 1:1 conversion from H$ to US$ will be assumed.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121004269277469845.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
http://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/article/60064

A collection of this year's commercials is embedded below.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

zero or one
13%
two
51%
three
12%
four or five
10%
six or seven
5%
eight, nine, ten
4%
eleven or more
5%
Activity: H$5,827
Question suspends in 23 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 6th May 2009 10am PDT (23 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: zero or one: 20%, two: 30%, three: 20%, four or five: 10%, six or seven: 8%, eight, nine, ten: 7%, eleven or more: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 17th Sep 3:41pm PDT by onedave[Power User]

Suspend date: Wed 6th May 2009 10am PDT (23 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (12)

12 predictions

1 week ago
bgrigore predicted four or five (H$300 at 12%)
4 weeks ago
pixelpaws predicted zero or one (H$50 at 22%)
8 weeks ago
valornhonor[Power User] predicted three (H$1,000 at 24%)
9 weeks ago
onedave[Power User] predicted two (H$20 at 26%)
9 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted eleven or more (H$100 at 5%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
Hi, I just added an image to your question.

With this image your question can become one of the featured questions, promoted on the hubdub homepage. I deliberately chose an image which I though would match your question intentions best. If, however, you do not agree with it, please flag the question to the category editor.

Regards
posted 9 weeks ago

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