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Will Morgan Stanley merge or be acquired by another company before December 31, 2008?

Current forecast: 72% chance 2%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 72% likely to happen (down 2% in last 1 day)

Morgan Stanley Said to Mull Deal; Wachovia Calls Mack

By Christine Harper and Jonathan Keehner

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley is weighing a merger with Wachovia Corp. and several other banks as the securities firm seeks to regain investor confidence after its shares sank 42 percent this week, people familiar with the matter said.

John Mack, Morgan Stanley's chief executive officer, received a call from Wachovia today indicating interest, said one person, who declined to be identified because the talks aren't public and may end without an agreement. Such a deal is one option being considered and the New York-based firm also is seeking ways to limit short sales of its stock, said the person. CNBC reported that Morgan Stanley is in talks to possibly be acquired by China's Citic Group, citing an unidentified person.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKe4HMSOe8no&refer=home

As stated in comments by the question creator:

Announcement of a merger or acquisition should be the trigger to settle this question.


Suspension of the question will occur at the time of any announcement or the end of the market period, 12/31/08. This question is to be settled upon the announcement of a merger or acquisition by another company. The announce deal does not have to be completed by 12/31/08. Even if the deal falls through, the announcement alone is enough to settle the question. It must be a total merger or acquisition or merger to settle as YES, partial sales of segments of the company will not qualify. In the case of bankruptcy the market will continue to its suspension date because an announcement might still be made in spite of the bankruptcy development.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
72%
No
28%
Activity: H$31,577
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Wed 17th Sep 6:43pm PDT by manilamaverick

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (19)

19 predictions

7 weeks ago
tarpash predicted No (H$100 at 22%)
7 weeks ago
jepelde predicted Yes (H$100 at 78%)
8 weeks ago
madbuns predicted Yes (H$20 at 78%)
8 weeks ago
pmcpeak predicted No (H$40 at 22%)
9 weeks ago
sweet_baby_rye predicted Yes (H$100 at 83%)
more

Comments (3)

Announcement of a merger or acquisition should be the trigger to settle this question. FYI.
posted 9 weeks ago
  2 dieseldog
@manilamaverick..you better flag the question and ask that an annoucement will settle the question be put in the settlement details. according to HD rules announcements don't settle. since you created the question the admin will work with you on getting it settled the way you like.
posted 9 weeks ago
Will do dieseldog, thanks.
posted 9 weeks ago

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