Created Thu 18th Sep 1:59am PDT by 
neuronexmachina
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » neuronexmachina 
If McCain is elected, how many in the US will die in terrorist attacks during his first term?
Voided
Market voided.
Background:
This is a question to predict the impact of John McCain's presidency on the likely number of deaths from terrorist attacks in the US during his first term. Only terrorist attacks within the US will count towards the total; the total will not include deaths from conventional attacks, attacks on US citizens in other countries, or attacks on US embassies. Passenger deaths from terrorist attacks on aircraft in transit to or from the US will count towards the total.
This market will be voided (money returned to bidder) if McCain is not elected in 2008. The question will continue until the end of the term if McCain resigns or is otherwise incapacitated.
A corresponding prediction has also been created for Barack Obama.
This market will be voided (money returned to bidder) if McCain is not elected in 2008. The question will continue until the end of the term if McCain resigns or is otherwise incapacitated.
A corresponding prediction has also been created for Barack Obama.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Voided
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Less than 10 deaths |
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11 - 100 deaths |
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101 - 1,000 deaths |
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1,001 - 10,000 deaths |
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10,001 - 100,000 deaths |
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100,001 - 1,000,000 deaths |
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More than 1,000,000 deaths |
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Voided Tue 4th Nov 11:11pm PST
Suspend date: Sun 20th Jan 2013 11:59pm PST (4 years to go)
Initial likelihoods: Less than 10 deaths: 20%, 11 - 100 deaths: 30%, 101 - 1,000 deaths: 25%, 1,001 - 10,000 deaths: 10%, 10,001 - 100,000 deaths: 5%, 100,001 - 1,000,000 deaths: 5%, More than 1,000,000 deaths: 5%
Action history:
Created Thu 18th Sep 1:59am PDT by neuronexmachina
neuronexmachina
Voided Tue 4th Nov 11:11pm PST by 
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: Market voided.
destry: Market voided.
Suspend date: Sun 20th Jan 2013 11:59pm PST (4 years to go)
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predicted More than 1,000,000 deaths (H$100 at 2%)Comments (11)
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score: 10
CNN 2 weeks ago
(CNN) ? Two and seven: With two days left until election day, a new national poll suggests that Barack Obama holds a seven-point lead over John McCain in the race for the White House. In the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey, released
score: 10
The Politico 2 weeks ago
time. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown all faced acts of terrorism within their first year in office. The issue was driven home this month by Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden, who flatly
score: 10
China Post 2 weeks ago
TWN, By David Ting, Special to One old-timer journalist?s prediction in the presidential electionAs the clock is ticking toward November 4, the entire world is asking the question: Will the American voters elect the first black candidate to the White
score: 10
Middle East Media Research Institute 2 weeks ago
of cartoons and blog posts from the Arabic, Iranian, and Urdu-Pashtu media on the upcoming U.S. presidential election (for Part I, visit http://www.memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=Announcement&ID=Announcement7808 ). The posts can be found
score: 10
PBS 2 weeks ago
in the African-American vote is enormous. I do think, Jim, that the significance is more than just this election, because we've had a given of a solid South, really, for the past 40 years, that it's been the most reliable, dependable, and homogenous
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neuronexmachina
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10 settled, 5 voided
I have no idea what the difference means.
http://www.fbi.gov/publications/terror/terrorism2002_2005.htm
Besides 9/11, their count from the past few years includes the anthrax deaths and the LAX shooting.
Whichever way the election goes, only one of these questions can last 4 years. I wagered on both questions for an average wait of only 2 years... I can't wait!
the election is over. obama/biden concedes...mccain/palin wins! how do i know this you ask? orange county choppers (OCC) was at a mccain/palin rally today. i know when i'm choosing a canidate i go with whom ever mikey from OCC's endorse's. :O)
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