Created Thu 18th Sep 2008 12:59am PST by

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$33,500)

If McCain is elected, how many in the US will die in terrorist attacks during his first term?

Voided

Market voided.

Background:

Background: This is a question to predict the impact of John McCain's presidency on the likely number of deaths from terrorist attacks in the US during his first term. Only terrorist attacks within the US will count towards the total; the total will not include deaths from conventional attacks, attacks on US citizens in other countries, or attacks on US embassies. Passenger deaths from terrorist attacks on aircraft in transit to or from the US will count towards the total.

This market will be voided (money returned to bidder) if McCain is not elected in 2008. The question will continue until the end of the term if McCain resigns or is otherwise incapacitated.

A corresponding prediction has also been created for Barack Obama.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Less than 10 deaths

22%

11 - 100 deaths

33%

101 - 1,000 deaths

18%

1,001 - 10,000 deaths

11%

10,001 - 100,000 deaths

100,001 - 1,000,000 deaths

More than 1,000,000 deaths

Voided Tue 4th Nov 2008 11:11pm PST

Activity: H$190,685
Predictions: 86
Comments: 11

Suspend date: Sun 20th Jan 2013 11:59pm PST (3 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Less than 10 deaths: 20%, 11 - 100 deaths: 30%, 101 - 1,000 deaths: 25%, 1,001 - 10,000 deaths: 10%, 10,001 - 100,000 deaths: 5%, 100,001 - 1,000,000 deaths: 5%, More than 1,000,000 deaths: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 18th Sep 2008 12:59am PST by

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$33,500)

Voided Tue 4th Nov 2008 11:11pm PST by

destry [Admin]

: Market voided.

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Suspend date: Sun 20th Jan 2013 11:59pm PST (3 years to go) details

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Predictions (86)

1 year ago

trynreadme Level 1, Newbie (H$952)

predicted Less than 10 deaths (H$20 at 33%)

1 year ago

trynreadme Level 1, Newbie (H$952)

predicted Less than 10 deaths (H$20 at 33%)

1 year ago

trynreadme Level 1, Newbie (H$952)

predicted Less than 10 deaths (H$100 at 32%)

1 year ago

stfxkid Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,304)

predicted Less than 10 deaths (H$20 at 31%)

1 year ago

capecodviking [Power User]

predicted 1,001 - 10,000 deaths (H$50 at 13%)

Comments (11)

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$155,721)

Very interesting to compare the current percentages in this question versus the same Obama question.

I have no idea what the difference means.

posted 1 year ago

bananaman22 Level 5, Predictor (H$1,518)

ure gonna take 4 years to get your money. what a waste of time.

posted 1 year ago

theonecalledmichael Level 15, Seer (H$312,211)

it'll be voided november 4th....

posted 1 year ago

nicfulton Level 7, Pro (H$3,797)

This question seems way to nuanced to be useful. Who decided which is a terrorist attack? McCain? I'm not sure numbers like these are reported by mainstream media, so it's going to take some work to figure this out fairly.

posted 1 year ago

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$33,500)

@nicfulton: Good question. The FBI periodically issues reports on terrorism which includes fatality counts:

http://www.fbi.gov/publications/terror/terrorism2002_2005.htm

Besides 9/11, their count from the past few years includes the anthrax deaths and the LAX shooting.

posted 1 year ago

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$33,500)

Link to the corresponding question for Obama: http://www.hubdub.com/m16631/If_Obama_is_elected_how_many_in_the_US_will_die_in_terrorist_attacks_during_his_first_term

posted 1 year ago

bananaman22 Level 5, Predictor (H$1,518)

theonewhocalledmichael> why would it be? =/

posted 1 year ago

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,428,615)

@banana - tocm is predicting McWalnuts loses which would void this question... I'm predicting that the Messiah, Lord Barack Hussien Obama, loses which would void the other question.

Whichever way the election goes, only one of these questions can last 4 years. I wagered on both questions for an average wait of only 2 years... I can't wait!

posted 1 year ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$601,019)

--------BREAKING NEWS--------

the election is over. obama/biden concedes...mccain/palin wins! how do i know this you ask? orange county choppers (OCC) was at a mccain/palin rally today. i know when i'm choosing a canidate i go with whom ever mikey from OCC's endorse's. :O)

posted 1 year ago

yongke_yu Level 12, Guru (H$28,120)

This question is lame! Why don't you ask, how many black people will commit murder in the first year if Obama is elected? Ops... did I just piss off a lot of people?

posted 1 year ago

trynreadme Level 1, Newbie (H$952)

I think this is a ridiculous accusation, saying that there will be an increase in Terrorist related deaths. If anything I believe that the foreign issues we are facing today will be dealt with in a more strategic manor. Senator McCain was strong on the debate tonight when it came to Foreign policies, and personally I believe that is something America needs to CONTINUE to focus on. We are taking our eyes off of the past and future and worrying TOO much about the present. We have plenty of smart and very capable individuals in America working on our economic crisis as we speak. America will bounce back, that's what we do. But, disregarding our foreign relations and issues is absurd. I believe Senator McCain is the best man for that job. I believe Obama is too focused on trying to relate and is forgetting about what needs to happen outside of America...Don't put on your blinders America, life does exist outside of the U.S. That life can and will come to bite us in the ass if not *PROPERLY* dealt with!!

posted 1 year ago

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