How many in the US will die in terrorist attacks during President Obama's first term?

the fact that obama is getting more support at less than ten than mccain is just proves what i was saying about our election map: it's terribly skewed by all the college aged zombies who get their "news" from the daily show + colbert report.

Actually, now that you mention it, I find it curious that a number of the accounts which have bid "less than 10 deaths" for Obama have only joined in the past one or two days, and have bid largely on stakes which are favorable towards Obama.

@neuron - I think you're seeing a natural bias for players who have been around longer to keep their predictions private. Looking at the positions overall, it looks pretty reasonable.

Ah, that makes sense.

This is a intresting question. Considering Obamas inexeperience there is a chance that terrorism might go up. However considering his support in foreign countrys theres reason for it to go down. Take that and flip it around and you have McCains situation. However admitidly McCain has some foreign affairs experience opposed to Obama.

By the way, I'd like to also encourage people to bid on the corresponding prediction I created for McCain: http://www.hubdub.com/m16630/If_McCain_is_elected_how_many_in_the_US_will_die_in_terrorist_attacks_during_his_first_term

The McCain question has been getting about an order of magnitude less activity than the Obama question so far. If both questions get a lot of activity then it should make it easier to compare the predicted result of each being elected President.

are we looking at deaths outside of iraq?

> are we looking at deaths outside of iraq?

Yes, the question description only includes deaths within the US, not deaths of US citizens in other countries or US embassies.

and ure also gonna take 4 years to get money back on this question! who knows if ure even gonna be using hubdub by then :P hahaha !

dumbest questions ever. and to bet on something like this... how do you sleep at night...

@forbichoff - I think it's worth noting that Hubdub users predict, rather than bet on, the news. As such, the numbers you see here are a forecast of what people think will happen, not necessarily what they want to happen.

More importantly, these forecasts serve a greater purpose in drawing attention to and engaging people into relevant political issues.

I can understand that some people might be squeamish about this question. It's not nice to imagine deaths and terrorist attacks, even hypothetically. My advice would be not to predict on questions you don't feel comfortable with.

Thank you tisha. I, for one, have stopped betting on these type questions.. I wonder if Hubdub could have some kind of special category, for those of us who do not want to bet on these type questions, do not have to see them. right now, they are located everywhere, (politics, general, etc..etc....) . maybe some category, like death related..or something like that, so they would be out of all the other categories..

@forbichoff: I'm quite sorry if you find the question distasteful, but I still think that this sort of question is potentially quite informative and experimentally useful. If one were to get decent predictions from these sorts of questions, one could then use them to hypothetically guide decisions and ultimately save more lives.

well i still think you are wrong. and how could this even ''hypothetically... save more lives" please, explain this one.

@forbichoff - Check out this controversial plan by the Pentagon several years ago: http://hanson.gmu.edu/PAM/press2/RMM-4-04.htm (Scroll down to terrorism)

i support any HD'er making a question as long as it is within the rules. i don't understand why so much is on the less than 10 deaths, unless people are predicting no attack will occur. when the radicals do attack the USA they don't do the one suicide bomber deal. they like to hit us in grand style on our soil. lets just hope and pray their to depleted-busy fighting us over seas to attack us on a grand scale. goodluck betters.

@neuronexmachina...congrads on your questions. you got 3 that has close to a total of $220,000 wagered on them. 9-28-08 1:31 am EST. you and valhonor might have to have a contest. :O)

@jennieandtheboys let me see if i got that right, they asked everyday people, with less knowledge about those events then the whitehouse, what they think will happen? If thats what it is then its retarded. They cant predict on those events for the pentagon when they have limited knowledge on the issue. The only thing these predictions could represent were opinions not facts.

@dieseldog: Thanks. ;)

@draongfangxl: I'm sorry, but even if you think it's retarded it doesn't change the fact that prediction markets on average are better predictors than just about any other forecasting mechanism out there.

See here for functionality suggestions about taking contentious questions off the front page http://www.hubdub.com/e/Topic/Hiding_contentious_questions_173

If they are right more often then its purely luck.

dragonfangxl
"... they asked everyday people, with less knowledge about those events then the whitehouse, what they think will happen? If thats what it is then its retarded. ..."

Isn't the Whitehouse a bunch of retarded?