Created Thu 18th Sep 2008 5:48pm PST by

Will the Green Party match or beat the NDP in a major poll before election day?

Settled as No

No such poll finding. http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html (see bottom of page for poll splits)

Background:

Background: Ok, this one may be a long shot, but the Greens and NDP are growing in support each time a poll comes out. Will any major poll before the election put the Green party's overall support above the NDP?
Initial probability : 5%

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. This url (<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/09/10/f-polls.html">http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/09/10/f-polls.html<;/a>) is a good place to look. Any major poll is acceptable, a non-exhaustive list would be Harris-Decima, ekos, or any national newspaper or tv network. Question to be settled yes if the Green's equal or beat the national support level of the conservatives.

Forecast history %

Yes

94%

Settled as No on Wed 15th Oct 2008 9:10am PST

Activity: H$915
Predictions: 8
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Sun 12th Oct 2008 10pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2008 9:10am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 12th Oct 2008 10pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 18th Sep 2008 5:48pm PST by

ratel

Changed Description Sat 11th Oct 2008 8:41am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

Changed Settlement info Sat 11th Oct 2008 8:41am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: show details

... source. This url (<a href='="http://www.cbc.ca/news/ ... /09/10/f-polls.html'>">http://www.cbc.ca/news/

Changed Suspend date Sat 11th Oct 2008 8:41am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: was: "2008-10-14 15:59:00"

Changed Settlement info Sat 11th Oct 2008 8:42am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: show details

... mainstream news source. This url (<(<a href="<a href="http://www.cbc. ... 09/10/f-polls.html</a>"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/09/10/f-polls.html&lt">http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/09/10/f-polls.html&lt</a>;/a>) is a good place

Changed Suspend date Sat 11th Oct 2008 8:42am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: was: "2008-10-14 14:00:00"

Suspended Sun 12th Oct 2008 10pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Wed 15th Oct 2008 2:02am PST by

mork

: http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html

Settled as 'No' Wed 15th Oct 2008 9:10am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: No such poll finding. http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html (see bottom of page for poll splits)

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Predictions (8)

1 year ago

storekeeperathscm Level 10, Genius (H$14,217)

predicted No (H$100 at 94%)

1 year ago

dr42

predicted No (H$65 at 94%)

1 year ago

crstals Level 11, Legend (H$15,708)

predicted No (H$200 at 94%)

1 year ago

gcawood Level 6, Player (H$2,241)

predicted No (H$100 at 94%)

1 year ago

canadianveggie Level 14, Prophet (H$136,375)

predicted Yes (H$50 at 6%)

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