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Which movie will earn more domestically this year - Indy 4 or Iron Man?

Current forecast: Iron Man wins by between $1 and $2,500,000 (83% chance18%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Iron Man wins by between $1 and $2,500,000 with a probability of 83% (down 18% in last 1 day)

Both movies have been a huge success financially. With 3 months to go, http://boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2008&p=.htm indicates Iron Man is on $318,160,117 and Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull is on $316,542,583. Who do you think will have the most earnings by the end of this year, domestically in the US?


Settlement details: As per http://boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2008&p=.htm

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Iron Man wins by $5,000,001 or more
5%
Iron Man wins by between $2,500,001 and $5,000,000
6%
Iron Man wins by between $1 and $2,500,000
83%
They earn the same amount, to the nearest dollar
0%
Indiana Jones 4 wins by between $1 and $2,500,000
3%
Indy 4 wins by between $2,500,001 and $5,000,000
2%
Indiana Jones 4 wins by $5,000,001 or more
1%
Activity: H$11,293
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 19th Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Iron Man wins by $5,000,001 or more: 20%, Iron Man wins by between $2,500,001 and $5,000,000: 25%, Iron Man wins by between $1 and $2,500,000: 25%, They earn the same amount, to the nearest dollar: 1%, Indiana Jones 4 wins by between $1 and $2,500,000: 15%, Indy 4 wins by between $2,500,001 and $5,000,000: 9%, Indiana Jones 4 wins by $5,000,001 or more: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 20th Sep 11:30pm PDT by shojun

Suspend date: Fri 19th Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (28)

28 predictions

2 weeks ago
shojun predicted Iron Man wins by between $1 and $2,500,000 (H$1,000 at 82%)
2 weeks ago
the_blood_bather predicted Iron Man wins by between $2,500,001 and $5,000,000 (H$100 at 6%)
3 weeks ago
gilliganp predicted Iron Man wins by between $1 and $2,500,000 (H$100 at 81%)
3 weeks ago
shojun predicted Iron Man wins by between $1 and $2,500,000 (H$500 at 80%)
5 weeks ago
cousinjack predicted Iron Man wins by $5,000,001 or more (H$50 at 8%)
more

Comments (1)

I had no idea indy 4 was doing so well! go Mr. Ford.
posted 8 weeks ago

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