What will be the result of Monday's Gallup Presidential Poll?

Though I know that this isn't the poll the question is based on, today's Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Obama up by nine points, 53-44. Might the current fiasco regarding the bailout be taking its toll on the republicans?

unrightfully so - yes i believe it is

Anyone understand why the different polls are so different?
are they biased? or use different areas of the country?
thx, ken

for one, gallup is a 3 day rolling average.

others are obviously biased and show obama gaining as much as 9 points in one week sometimes. Those are usually from the TV news corporations and there is some good info:

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I'm Pretty Sure One of These Michigan Polls Is Way Off

Depending on which pollster you listen to, Obama either leads in Michigan by 10 percent or he's tied with McCain.

I note that the EPIC-MRA poll, which has Obama up 10, is a sample of 406 "people." (This would be a gain of 9 points for Obama in a week from the past poll by this group.)

Which is interesting, because it would appear we're not talking about likely voters, or even registered voters, or even adults. Just whoever answered the phone. I suppose we should be thankful that they filtered out pets. ("Four percent of respondents answered, 'Woof.'")

Mark Halperin gives us the results of the NBC News poll in the minimalist format of Ernest Hemingway: "NBC News Michigan numbers: Obama 46, McCain 46 Dates conducted: 18-23. Error margin: 4 points."

"The state was tied and that was all. Then we went to the bar and has some wine."

The guys at RCP are my favorite poll-watchers, but they include both in their rolling average of the state. If you decide the EPIC-MRA numbers are garbage, and you throw them out, Obama's lead in the state drops from 4.5 percent to 3.25 percent.

@bigken1

There are a number of reasons that the poll numbers differ, some are due to sampling bias as mentioned above, but not all. Here are just a few of the reasons:

1) The dates that the questions were asked could differ. Even if they overlap in time-frame, the numbers from a rolling poll conducted over three days such as Gallup will be more volatile than those conducted over an entire week...than those conducted over an entire month....etc.
2) Some polls are referring to registered voters, and some are referring to likely voters which changes the results...usually "likely voters" polls scew toward the Republican candidate since they are a more reliable voting block. By the way, robamichael, I'm not sure which news organization reported that poll as using 406 "people" as the sample, but it did, in fact, question "likely voters" (As reported in the Detroit News: http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080925/POLITICS01/809250409/1409/METRO) That said, there is a 4.9 percent margin of error on that poll, so you are correct that people shouldn't put a lot of stock in that 10-point lead.
3) The sample size can affect the reliability: Gallup questions atleast 1,000 people per day for its Gallup Daily poll (or atleast 3,000 people). This sample would probably be more representative of the general population than one with a sample size of say, 406 as the one cited above by robamichel (EXCEPT that the one cited above is for Michigan only, so the population being represented is much smaller making the smaller sample size more appropriate). The margin of error is meant to mitigate some of that bias, with smaller relative sample sizes leading to higher margins of error. However, most people don't pay much attention to the margin of error.
4) The polls collect phone numbers for their "random samples" in different ways which can sometimes scew the results. For example, I just read that the Pew Research Group and AP-Ipsos include cell phone numbers in the list that they use to generate their sample, but most organizations do not due to the expense involved in it. As more and more people are now using cell phones as their only phone line, this tends to scew the results to the older population since it is younger people who tend to shun land lines.

There are a number of other reasons, but that atleast covers some of the big ones. I hope that helps.

polls this far away from the election are fun to bet on and chat about, but really don't mean much. with say a week to go before the election they might be more accurate. their reputations are on the line. i guess it's the only way we got to have insight on a large number of people's view. be interesting to see who had the best pole after the election. zogby had a good track record for a few years. sounds like a question in the making..who's poll was the most accurate?

No poll is a 100% accurate. In fact most polls are just guesses. Research based guesses but still guesses. No matter how you conduct your poll you cant find out what the public actually thinks until they get up, walk over to the voting offices, and cast there ballets. Every estimate up tell then is just a guess.

Remember when the polling company "DataUSA Inc." admitted to making up the poll numbers they were contracted to generate for President Bush and Senator Lieberman?

Here is a link to one of the news articles that carried that AP story:
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/09/07/america/NA_POL_US_Poll_Fraud.php

Wow.... Thats kind of scary... If there are companys willing to forge poll numbers whos to say there arnt companys willing to fraud election results?

Hey Dragon....IT ALREADY HAPPENED: IN 2000!!!

Funny. Ill have you know that in every government and private recount it showed bush winning by the same exact amount. strange if the election was frauded there should have been a little variation dont you think?

obama is up by 8 right now

In what? The gallop poll|?

yup gallup

How do you know?

@dragon - http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx Its updated around 1300 every day. Yesterday Obama was +8. Remains to be seen what happens in today's poll, but I'd be putting money on 9+

Damn. My investment is worth about 0 right now.

Obama on the rise.

agree jenni.....up up up for Obama...especially after today

The problem is Obama won't do jack to help the economy, it was the democrats that hurt the bill yesterday.

No kidding. I think most people realize by now that the only reason they didnt pass the bill was because they were insecure after the treasury started doing the job they refused to do for them. They even said themselves "We are hurt and angered by the fact that the treasury does not notify us before making a decision". Heres an idea congress, You want to be notified? Try actually doing the job yourself! Its only fair considering we pay you and you are elected to do that job and yet your inaction is causing the American Economy to take a whooping.