Created Mon 22nd Sep 6:16pm PDT by gadget666

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Will the Green Party make the 5% election threshhold in the NZ 08 election?

The Green Party got 134,622 votes (6.43%) in preliminary results. The special votes that are to be added for the final result number around 240,000, and have traditionally favoured the Green Party. But even if the Green Party gets 0 of the special votes, it would still end up at 5.7% or so. So this close result (unlike a couple of others) is sufficient to settle now.
http://2008.electionresults.govt.nz/partystatus.html

Background:

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Will the Green Party make the 5% election threshhold in the NZ 08 election?

    Yes

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Forecast history, %

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Settled

	Yes	83%
	No	17%

Activity: H$36,871

Settled as Yes on Sun 9th Nov 6:47am PST

Suspend date: Fri 7th Nov 3:59pm PST Settlement date: Sun 9th Nov 6:47am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 7th Nov 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 22nd Sep 6:16pm PDT by gadget666

Suspended Fri 7th Nov 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Sat 8th Nov 5:38am PST by orlin: Yes

6.43% and 134,662 overall votes.

http://www.elections.org.nz/news/preliminary-election-results.html

Settlement requested Sat 8th Nov 3:59pm PST by rslnerd: http://2008.electionresults.govt.nz/partystatus.html

Settled as 'Yes' Sun 9th Nov 6:47am PST by infernalmachine: The Green Party got 134,622 votes (6.43%) in preliminary results. The special votes that are to be added for the final result number around 240,000, and have traditionally favoured the Green Party. But even if the Green Party gets 0 of the special votes, it would still end up at 5.7% or so. So this close result (unlike a couple of others) is sufficient to settle now.
http://2008.electionresults.govt.nz/partystatus.html

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Suspend date: Fri 7th Nov 3:59pm PST Settlement date: Sun 9th Nov 6:47am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 7th Nov 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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Predictions (44)

44 predictions

1 week ago

rslnerd predicted Yes (H$100 at 83%)

2 weeks ago

ksleher predicted No (H$20 at 17%)

2 weeks ago

pita_soup predicted Yes (H$20 at 83%)

2 weeks ago

gtown predicted Yes (H$50 at 83%)

2 weeks ago

jgardner100 predicted Yes (H$50 at 83%)

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1 week ago

rslnerd predicted Yes (H$100 at 83%)

2 weeks ago

ksleher predicted No (H$20 at 17%)

2 weeks ago

pita_soup predicted Yes (H$20 at 83%)

2 weeks ago

gtown predicted Yes (H$50 at 83%)

2 weeks ago

jgardner100 predicted Yes (H$50 at 83%)

2 weeks ago

gilliganp predicted No (H$100 at 17%)

2 weeks ago

greatapple predicted Yes (H$20 at 83%)

2 weeks ago

sweetkyl predicted No (H$100 at 18%)

2 weeks ago

cookietime predicted Yes (H$500 at 82%)

2 weeks ago

freeze predicted Yes (H$20 at 79%)

2 weeks ago

bgrigore predicted Yes (H$3,000 at 78%)

2 weeks ago

shojun predicted Yes (H$1,500 at 81%)

3 weeks ago

cookietime predicted Yes (H$100 at 80%)

3 weeks ago

ejzygmont predicted No (H$20 at 20%)

Showing recent public predictions only

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