Created Mon 22nd Sep 6:17pm PDT by 
gadget666
All questions » World » Other » gadget666 
Will the New Zealand First Party make the 5% election threshhold in the 08 NZ election?
Settled as No
First Party gained only 4.2%
Background:
NZ is having a general electon this year, with 20 parties trying to get into power. a party must gain 5% or more of the total vote, or win an electorate seat, to get into power. this question looks at just the 5% method of gaining power, and will settle as no if a party gains an electorate seat but not 5% of the total vote.
Category Editor Note: This question may have been settled too early. There are still up to 10% of the vote, called Special Votes, to be counted, which may change the result of this question. If so, I will resettle. The final results are due the week of Nov 17. There are two other NZ questions, regarding the Maori Party and the ACT party that are also awaiting final results to settle. Election questions have to settle on the final, not the preliminary, results unless there is near 0% likelihood they will change.
Category Editor Note: This question may have been settled too early. There are still up to 10% of the vote, called Special Votes, to be counted, which may change the result of this question. If so, I will resettle. The final results are due the week of Nov 17. There are two other NZ questions, regarding the Maori Party and the ACT party that are also awaiting final results to settle. Election questions have to settle on the final, not the preliminary, results unless there is near 0% likelihood they will change.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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Yes |
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No |
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Activity: H$20,481
Settled as No on Mon 10th Nov 3:02am PST
Suspend date: Fri 7th Nov 3:59pm PST Settlement date: Mon 10th Nov 3:02am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 7th Nov 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%
Action history:
Created Mon 22nd Sep 6:17pm PDT by gadget666
gadget666
Suspended Mon 22nd Sep 6:52pm PDT by 
mork![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user")
: Flagged by super user: duplicate
http://www.hubdub.com/m16967/will_the_New_Zealand_Pacific_Party_make_the_5_election_threshhold_in_the_08_nz_election
mork: Flagged by super user: duplicate
http://www.hubdub.com/m16967/will_the_New_Zealand_Pacific_Party_make_the_5_election_threshhold_in_the_08_nz_election
Unsuspended Mon 22nd Sep 7:54pm PDT by 
tisha![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: Not a duplicate
tisha: Not a duplicate
Suspended Fri 7th Nov 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 8th Nov 5:35am PST by orlin: No
4.21% and 88,072 overall votes.
http://www.elections.org.nz/news/preliminary-election-results.html
And: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aDHw1_sFAr8w&refer=australia
orlin: No
4.21% and 88,072 overall votes.
http://www.elections.org.nz/news/preliminary-election-results.html
And: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aDHw1_sFAr8w&refer=australia
Settlement requested Sat 8th Nov 3:59pm PST by 
rslnerd: http://2008.electionresults.govt.nz/partystatus.html
rslnerd: http://2008.electionresults.govt.nz/partystatus.html
Settled as 'No' Mon 10th Nov 3:02am PST by 
robuk: First Party gained only 4.2%
robuk: First Party gained only 4.2%
Changed Description Mon 10th Nov 8:49am PST by 
infernalmachine: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... 5% of the total vote.<br/> <br/> <b>Category Editor Note:</b> This question may have been settled too early. There are still up to 10% of the vote, called Special Votes, to be counted, which may change the result of this question. If so, I will resettle. The final results are due the week of Nov 17. There are two other NZ questions, regarding the Maori Party and the ACT party that are also awaiting final results to settle. Election questions <b>have</b> to settle on the final, not the preliminary, results unless there is near 0% likelihood they will change.
Suspend date: Fri 7th Nov 3:59pm PST Settlement date: Mon 10th Nov 3:02am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 7th Nov 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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