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Created Mon 22nd Sep 6:22pm PDT by gadget666
All questions » World » Other » 

Will United Future New Zealand make the 5% threshhold in the 2008 NZ general election?

Settled as No

18,629 votes (0.89%)
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/partystatus.html

Background:

NZ is having a general election this year, with 20 parties trying to get into power. a party must gain 5% or more of the total vote, or win an electorate seat, to get into power. this question looks at just the 5% method of gaining power, and will settle as no if a party gains an electorate seat but not 5% of the total vote.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Yes
10%
No
90%
Activity: H$30,300
Settled as No on Sat 8th Nov 1:41pm PST

Suspend date: Fri 7th Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sat 8th Nov 1:41pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 7th Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 22nd Sep 6:22pm PDT by gadget666
Suspended Fri 7th Nov 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 8th Nov 5:26am PST by orlin: No

0.89% and 18,629 overall votes.

http://www.elections.org.nz/news/preliminary-election-results.html
Settled as 'No' Sat 8th Nov 1:41pm PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: 18,629 votes (0.89%)
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/partystatus.html

Suspend date: Fri 7th Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sat 8th Nov 1:41pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 7th Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (15)

15 predictions

2 weeks ago
cookietime predicted No (H$1,100 at 90%)
2 weeks ago
shojun predicted No (H$1,500 at 89%)
4 weeks ago
elections2008 predicted Yes (H$30 at 28%)
6 weeks ago
cookietime predicted No (H$1,000 at 71%)
6 weeks ago
cookietime predicted No (H$500 at 70%)
more

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