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Will US Congress pass some form of a financial bailout bill before their recess in late September?

Settled as No bailout bill passed & meet beyond 9/26

US Congress is schedule for a holiday after Friday 9/26/08. Will they pass some form of a financial bailout bill to bail out the financials? Will they capitulate to the administration's largess toward the financials? Or will they just go on vacation?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Bailout bill(s) will be passed on/by 9/26 & recess
6%
No bailout bill passed & meet beyond 9/26
88%
No bailout bill passed by 9/26 & go on vacation
6%
Activity: H$32,730
Settled as No bailout bill passed & meet beyond 9/26 on Fri 3rd Oct 12:35pm PDT

Suspend date: Fri 26th Sep 10:59am PDT Settlement date: Fri 3rd Oct 12:35pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 26th Sep 10:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Bailout bill(s) will be passed on/by 9/26 & recess: 34%, No bailout bill passed & meet beyond 9/26: 33%, No bailout bill passed by 9/26 & go on vacation: 33%

Action history:

Created Tue 23rd Sep 10:17am PDT by rk725
Suspended Fri 26th Sep 10:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Fri 26th Sep 9:12pm PDT by randburg: It is September 27th in Washington, DC, there is no bailout bill yet and Congress continues to deliberate...
Settlement requested Fri 26th Sep 10:40pm PDT by dieseldog: Lawmakers Say Progress Made on Bailout, Hope for Weekend Deal
Saturday, September 27, 2008

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,429142,00.html
Settlement requested Sun 28th Sep 5:08am PDT by buckeyeguy: NO (didn't happen) - - Bailout bill(s) will be passed on/by 9/26 & recess
YES (they're still at it) -- No bailout bill passed & meet beyond 9/26
NO (didn't happen) -- No bailout bill passed by 9/26 & go on vacation
Settlement requested Sun 28th Sep 2:59pm PDT by onedave[Power User]: Please settle as 'No bailout bill passed & meet beyond 9/26,' as per comments and http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,429142,00.html. (market suspended)
Suspended Sun 28th Sep 2:59pm PDT by onedave[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Mon 29th Sep 1:11pm PDT by buckeyeguy: Why has this not been settled? The obvious only answer is #2.
Settlement requested Tue 30th Sep 10:15pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: The requirement of "No bailout bill passed & meet beyond 9/26" has been satisfied for settlement of this question.

Even if Congress were to go on "vacation" at this point, it would not change the settlement.
Settlement requested Thu 2nd Oct 12:51pm PDT by s99nj: I shouldn't matter if one of the choices are still an option. The question is the ACTUAL RESULT by the SUSPENSION DATE. It shouldn't matter if there are other choices still in play, because that wasn't the terms of the question (late September). The event that occurred when the question ended IS THE SETTLEMENT. Why is this not decided yet? If there was a question it should have been flagged earlier. This is biased moderation.
Suspended Thu 2nd Oct 4:44pm PDT by theonecalledmichael: Flagged by super user: My 2 cents on this one: the suspend date is passed, and the only thing that happened was option 2....if they had gone on vacation, it would have been 3.....in the past, we have always settled (almost always) based on the creators or the admins suspend/settlement date..... by this new measure, they could continue meeting for weeks with no plan, and this market would remain unsettled..... NOW, one more point, what if they pass a bill now, then go on vacation....How would you settle then..... I say settle option 2 now
Suspended Thu 2nd Oct 4:44pm PDT by theonecalledmichael: Flagged by super user: Suspend date
Settlement requested Fri 3rd Oct 11:35am PDT by rbrog77: Passed - vote of 263-171
Settled as 'No bailout bill passed & meet beyond 9/26' Fri 3rd Oct 12:35pm PDT by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Fri 26th Sep 10:59am PDT Settlement date: Fri 3rd Oct 12:35pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 26th Sep 10:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (119)

119 predictions

8 weeks ago
gianmy predicted No bailout bill passed & meet beyond 9/26 (H$100 at 88%)
8 weeks ago
bobdevine predicted Bailout bill(s) will be passed on/by 9/26 & recess (H$20 at 6%)
8 weeks ago
bobdevine predicted Bailout bill(s) will be passed on/by 9/26 & recess (H$100 at 7%)
8 weeks ago
ally1219 predicted No bailout bill passed & meet beyond 9/26 (H$20 at 87%)
8 weeks ago
lcsnor predicted Bailout bill(s) will be passed on/by 9/26 & recess (H$20 at 5%)
more

Comments (14)

WASHINGTON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - U.S. House Democratic Leader Steny Hoyer said lawmakers hope to enact a proposed $700 billion Wall Street bailout by Friday but will take the time to do it "responsibly."

In remarks to the Center for American Progress, the Maryland lawmaker said the Democratic-controlled Congress would refrain from burdening the legislation with unrelated measures such as children's health care, but would insist on strong oversight and help for homeowners facing foreclosure.

"We would like to do it by Friday," Hoyer said. He said lawmakers would work through the weekend and into next week if necessary to "responsibly" craft and act on the package. Congress was scheduled to recess at the end of this week.

Hoyer also said the administration is beginning to understand the "political realities" of lawmakers including in the legislation a measure to limit the pay of corporate executives who participate in the bailout. (Reporting by Donna Smith, editing by Gerald E. McCormick)
posted 8 weeks ago
  3 dieseldog
at the risk of facing the wrath of the admin. it can't be settled yet. option 3 is still viable.
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 s99nj
Doesn't matter the question is passed its due date, who care if there is still another option. ITS SETTLED!
posted 7 weeks ago
  5 dieseldog
s99nj - what if they go on vaction without passing a bailout? suspension date is not always the settlement date.
posted 7 weeks ago
  6 s99nj
@dieseldog

Shouldn't matter, the question is the ACTUAL RESULT by the SUSPENSION DATE. It shouldn't matter if there other choices still in play, because that wasn't the terms of the question. The event that occurred when the question ended IS THE SETTLEMENT. What moron decided to keep this going. The mods should have flagged this earlier. Another case of biased moderation I mentioned in the forums.
posted 7 weeks ago
  7 dieseldog
s99nj - you can flag the question and explain your view to the admin. goodluck.
posted 7 weeks ago
  8 rk725
All, I'm the question creator and my original intent for the second choice was "No bailout bill passed by 9/26 & meet beyond 9/26", which was what happened. But the field size limitation did not let me put all those words down, so the second choice came out to be "No bailout bill passed & meet beyond 9/26". (*Hint to admin: increase the field size limitation). I apologize for the confusion and I hope this provides closure to everyone. Sorry @dieseldog.
posted 7 weeks ago
I understood option 2 perfectly!
posted 7 weeks ago
  10 destry[Admin]
The problem with this market currently is that option 3 could also occur. It is possible they don't pass the bill in the house and go on vacation. Therefore both option 2 and 3 would be correct. If that event occurs, this market will be voided. If as we all think the house votes on this on Friday and passes it, then option 2 will be the winning option. Right now we are in wait and see.
posted 7 weeks ago
@rk725:
What was your intention with regards to option3?
posted 7 weeks ago
  12 dieseldog
@rk725..no need to aplogise to me. i was trying to help s99nj. he got a lil heated so i sent him to the admin. they get paid to deal with that. :O)
posted 7 weeks ago
I'm leaving now, because common sense should rule the day.....I'm done
posted 7 weeks ago
He was serious!
posted 6 weeks ago

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