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Will the US Congress agree to the 700 billion bail-out as proposed by Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke?

Settled as No

Settled as NO as nor agreement was reached by the Friday deadline for this question

Background:

Please read entire background to fully understand this question and settlement information

The US Treasury is requesting the authority to issue up to 700 billion US dollars of Treasury securities to finance the purchase of banks' "troubled" mortgage-related assets.

A crucial vote on the US Government's proposed 700 billion US dollar bank bail-out could be taken as soon as Wednesday.

The scheme's architects, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, addressed members of Congress to stress the urgency of the situation.

It is to be funded through extending the US national debt, or in other words, the US taxpayer.

To settle Yes, they must agree with this plan as currently discussed until the end of this week, thus on or before Friday, September 26th.

http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5j7n1pK8f8JrJ6mwkiG-iSKogjmEw


ADDITIONAL INFO PROVIDED BY QUESTION CREATOR:
These are the outlines of the plan:
- Issuing up to 700 billion US dollars of Treasury securities to finance the purchase of banks' "troubled" mortgage-related assets.
- The price of assets purchases will be established through "market mechanisms where possible, such as reverse auctions" (This would mean banks would compete to sell their assets at the lowest prices).
- It is to be funded through extending the US national debt, or in other words, the US taxpayer.
- The assets must have been originated or issued on or before September 17, 2008.
- Participating financial institutions must have "significant" operations in the US, but Mr Paulson has the capacity to widen the uptake if it is deemed "necessary to effectively stabilise financial markets"

If any of these are changed, or no agreement is made this week, the question settles as NO.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
14%
No
86%
Activity: H$72,868
Settled as No on Sat 27th Sep 7:03am PDT

Suspend date: Sat 27th Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 27th Sep 7:03am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 27th Sep 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 65%

Action history:

Created Tue 23rd Sep 11:16am PDT by kruijs[Power User]
Settlement requested Fri 26th Sep 10:28pm PDT by dieseldog: Lawmakers Say Progress Made on Bailout, Hope for Weekend Deal
Saturday, September 27, 2008

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,429142,00.html
Suspended Sat 27th Sep 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 27th Sep 5:57am PDT by biloxibeachboy: I believe the question provided a cut off date of yesterday (Friday) for this to have been accomplished.
Settlement requested Sat 27th Sep 6:39am PDT by Erik: "If any of these are changed, or no agreement is made this week, the question settles as NO."

Didn't happen
Settled as 'No' Sat 27th Sep 7:03am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Settled as NO as nor agreement was reached by the Friday deadline for this question

Suspend date: Sat 27th Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 27th Sep 7:03am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 27th Sep 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (230)

230 predictions

7 weeks ago
andreevna predicted Yes (H$20 at 14%)
7 weeks ago
leeangelo predicted No (H$20 at 85%)
7 weeks ago
ksavai predicted No (H$20 at 85%)
7 weeks ago
onthelang predicted No (H$100 at 82%)
7 weeks ago
apawllo predicted No (H$300 at 82%)
more

Comments (35)

  1 youbet
If amendments are made then it settles as NO ??
posted 8 weeks ago
  2 kruijs[Power User]
These are the outlines of the plan:
- Issuing up to 700 billion US dollars of Treasury securities to finance the purchase of banks' "troubled" mortgage-related assets.
- The price of assets purchases will be established through "market mechanisms where possible, such as reverse auctions" (This would mean banks would compete to sell their assets at the lowest prices).
- It is to be funded through extending the US national debt, or in other words, the US taxpayer.
- The assets must have been originated or issued on or before September 17, 2008.
- Participating financial institutions must have "significant" operations in the US, but Mr Paulson has the capacity to widen the uptake if it is deemed "necessary to effectively stabilise financial markets"

If any of these are changed, or no agreement is made this week, the question settles as NO.
posted 8 weeks ago
  3 pixelpaws
I'm pretty sure you mean "bail out" and not "bale out" as I don't think hay is involved. :)
posted 8 weeks ago
  4 kruijs[Power User]
ROFL
posted 8 weeks ago
What if section 8 is changed?
"Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency."
posted 8 weeks ago
  6 bayoubear[Admin]
This is going to be a tough one....I'm pretty sure the Democratic congress is not going to just rubber-stamp whatever Paulson has come up with....

How do you determine whether or not they've 'currently agreed' . . . .I'm just kinda hoping they don't agree to ANYTHING by the end of the market period...would make settlement much easier!
posted 8 weeks ago
FBI investigating companies at heart of meltdown
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1152ap_financial_meltdown_investigation.html
posted 8 weeks ago
1 The situation is really bad! i hope the lazy congress actually recognizes how much action is needed as opposed to there inaction. The treasury isnt supposed to be the one handling this situation, congress is.
posted 8 weeks ago
  9 deelilley
"One of the giant mortgage companies at the heart of the credit crisis paid $15,000 a month from the end of 2005 through last month to a firm owned by Senator John McCain’s campaign manager, according to two people with direct knowledge of the arrangement.
The disclosure undercuts a statement by Mr. McCain on Sunday night that the campaign manager, Rick Davis, had had no involvement with the company for the last several years.

Mr. Davis’s firm received the payments from the company, Freddie Mac, until it was taken over by the government this month along with Fannie Mae, the other big mortgage lender whose deteriorating finances helped precipitate the cascading problems on Wall Street, the people said.

They said they did not recall Mr. Davis’s doing much substantive work for the company in return for the money, other than speak to a political action committee of high-ranking employees in October 2006 on the approaching midterm Congressional elections. They said Mr. Davis’s firm, Davis & Manafort, had been kept on the payroll because of Mr. Davis’s close ties to Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, who by 2006 was widely expected to run again for the White House."
http://tinyurl.com/5y78yj

$15,000 a month for screwing the US taxpayer.
And McCain is letting this one run his campaign..
Sweet.
posted 8 weeks ago
@deelilley: that is the media's attempt to get the focus of off Penny Pritzker: Obama's Campaign Finance Chair!

For another interesting tidbit, check this list out: http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/09/update-fannie-mae-and-freddie.html

Amazing how 2 faced these people are. They need to be in politics because we don't want them running businesses in the "real world"!
posted 8 weeks ago
  11 dieseldog
what did obama and the dems do to stop this? if memory serves me right they blocked attempts to stop freddy and frannie from buying all the subprime mortages. i think neither party is innocent in the whole deal. obama says he's a leader...took him at least 3 days to even comment on the matter, let alone offer a plan.
posted 8 weeks ago
Well lets face it. Im sure we can expect the same things from obama that we can expect from the democratic senate. Nada. Hes going to sit in his office and collect his 600k a year pretending that we can all get along with the world with a big group hug while ignoring the real problems. I mean for christ sake this is the time he should be at his speediest convincing the american people he can do this job. Clearly he isnt up for the task.
posted 8 weeks ago
Wow, notablynoticeable, thanks for that link... that was one seriously tight and close race for first place between Christopher Dodd, the French looking Kerry and the most merciful messiah himself, BHO! Second place is a pretty decent showing for the new guy, BHO. He shouldn't feel too bad losing to Dodd - after some more political experience BHO will probably top the list.
posted 8 weeks ago
@notablenotice I like how near the bottom of the list they starting listing $250. Why the hell would anyone collect 250 from them? "here vote for us! Yes thats not a hallucination, that is a 0 behind the 25. We are talking big money here, big money!" Meanwhile obamas collection a 110,000 from them and chris dodd is getting 160,000.
posted 8 weeks ago
@dragonfanxl: that is a good question. Maybe some politicians can be bought for cheap? LOL
posted 8 weeks ago
I guess so! Maybe Fannie may and freddie mac shop at walmart! "Blue light sale, blue light sale! politicians are going for as low as 250! act fast!"
posted 8 weeks ago
  17 curios
bring out the nags to eat the bale, 700 million is more than mine can eat
posted 8 weeks ago
  18 Erik
Background states:
"If any of these are changed, or no agreement is made this week, the question settles as NO"
What if none of those are changed, but there are additions?
posted 8 weeks ago
  19 bayoubear[Admin]
I believe as long as all of the primary points referred to are
agreed to, the addition of more conditions wouldn't affect the
outcome. If any of the primary points are not approved, it's a
NO. If all of those are approved, it's a YES.
posted 8 weeks ago
What if some contradicting additions are made therefore rendering this bill unusable?
posted 8 weeks ago
  21 deelilley
@ notables

Fact: Bush/McCain helped create this deregulated mess.
http://tinyurl.com/426uuy

Please digest:
Shifting the blame is no answer, as usual, to the problem at hand.
"It is base."
posted 8 weeks ago
Maybe it doesnt solve the problem but it sure makes me feel better. Care to elaborate on why you think bush and McCain helped create this mess? In your own words please. And even if you come up with some swaying argument on why i am still going to use the point that even if they did help "Create it" which i doubt, then the lazy congress didnt help it by doing nothing and forcing the treasury (who is handling a problem that is part of congresses job and have limited power on the subject) to act.
posted 8 weeks ago
  23 bayoubear[Admin]
If the contradicting additions make the primary points unworkable, then I would say that the primary points have not been approved....now, who's to say that they are unworkable? Ah, there's the rub!
posted 8 weeks ago
.......?????????? I was with you tell those last two setences. Then you lost me. Want to try explaining taht again?
posted 8 weeks ago
If the "Bail Out" is so neccesary, and it needs to happen yesterday, then why are the markets not crashing, why are people still getting pay checks, why is business still moving forward? It would seem that if the Fed chairman, the president, and the Sec. of the treasury are so convinced that we are on the brink with this crisis, that the markets would be withering and the whole country would be shutting down, but its not. Its a rich man's crisis, and its socialism. I'll bet that if there is no bail out, we will be better off in the long run.... I'll bet all my $H dollars on it if we could fashion some question for this....
posted 8 weeks ago
Hmm... Well... How about "If the Bail Out Fails, Will stocks go up or down 4 years from now"? To long to wait?
posted 8 weeks ago
@tocm - WOW! You and I agree on this one!
posted 8 weeks ago
Amazing....
posted 8 weeks ago
The bail out is un-american....I think a lot of us agree on it, dems and reps!
posted 7 weeks ago
  30 emmag
I agree, tocm. If there is a crisis, they've done a piss-poor job of explaining it.
posted 7 weeks ago
As much agreement as there is on this topic, I am guessing Congress approval rating is heading toward negative numbers!
posted 7 weeks ago
if not lower....
posted 7 weeks ago
LOL @tocm

nice!
posted 7 weeks ago
  34 bayoubear[Admin]
As theonecalledmichael said....lot of us believe it's un-American, but even those who do, are afraid of what might happen if something is not done. Then the question becomes what should be done....and for the longer run, can we learn from this? Did we learn from the savings & loan debacle of the 80's?

We never seem to learn, I guess...remember gas crisis from years past, where we reacted by designing cars that were more efficient, reduced speed limits, and took other steps. But as soon as it was over, we went at it again....speed limits back up, bigger cars, hummers, all that stuff.
posted 7 weeks ago
And that, I believe, it the beauty of freedom. People are not forced to drive quickly, or large cars - but those who want to know the price & pay it. People who want to conserve still have the option of finding small cars, and driving slow. I know - I have lived near a retirement community! LOL

Yeah, that is a good point about the Savings and Loans - more than 1000 of them folded up & I remember being told it was because they were not as fiscally responsable as the more established banking institutions... it's interesting to think back on that now! My guess is that some lessons were not learned very well.
posted 7 weeks ago

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