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How much money will the US Congress approve to bail out Wall Street?

Settled as Greater than $500 Billion to $700 Billion

WASHINGTON - Senators dug in their heels Tuesday, pushing back against dire warnings from the government's top economic officials of recession, layoffs and lost homes if Congress doesn't quickly approve the Bush administration's emergency $700 billion financial bailout plan. Congressional leaders still predicted passage — with significant changes — but Wall Street's nerves were hardly soothed. The Dow Jones industrials sank 161 points and now are off more than 500 this week after initially surging on the bailout announcement last week.

Deepening market trouble was just one piece of the economic havoc that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told senators would ensue if Congress lags in acting on the administration's proposal to rescue tottering financial institutions. (AP)

Category Editor Clarification
The options have been clarified so that there is no overlap. If the announced bailout is 500 billion exactly then it will be option 1. If announced bailout is exactly 700 Billion then will be option 2. Option 3 will be if announced bailout is more than $700 Billion.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

$0 to $500 Billion
4%
Greater than $500 Billion to $700 Billion
87%
Above $700 Billion
9%
Activity: H$46,575
Settled as Greater than $500 Billion to $700 Billion on Fri 3rd Oct 12:39pm PDT

Suspend date: last Saturday 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Fri 3rd Oct 12:39pm PDT

Initial likelihoods: $0 to $500 Billion: 20%, Greater than $500 Billion to $700 Billion: 50%, Above $700 Billion: 30%

Action history:

Created Tue 23rd Sep 3:43pm PDT by lola
Suspended Fri 3rd Oct 12:34pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Fri 3rd Oct 12:34pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Bailout plan has been passed by Congress and now Senate. Are we waiting for a joint committee session, or are we settling based on the house vote.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/10/03/us.bailout.deal.markets/index.html (market suspended)
Settled as 'Greater than $500 Billion to $700 Billion' Fri 3rd Oct 12:39pm PDT by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: last Saturday 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Fri 3rd Oct 12:39pm PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (113)

113 predictions

7 weeks ago
lola predicted Greater than $500 Billion to $700 Billion (H$4,500 at 79%)
7 weeks ago
parboman predicted Above $700 Billion (H$100 at 21%)
7 weeks ago
ryanj[Admin] predicted Greater than $500 Billion to $700 Billion (H$2,500 at 61%)
7 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted Greater than $500 Billion to $700 Billion (H$100 at 50%)
7 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted Above $700 Billion (H$50 at 35%)
more

Comments (15)

  1 curios
hope its not monopoly money
posted 8 weeks ago
If the "Bail Out" is so neccesary, and it needs to happen yesterday, then why are the markets not crashing, why are people still getting pay checks, why is business still moving forward? It would seem that if the Fed chairman, the president, and the Sec. of the treasury are so convinced that we are on the brink with this crisis, that the markets would be withering and the whole country would be shutting down, but its not. Its a rich man's crisis, and its socialism. I'll bet that if there is no bail out, we will be better off in the long run.... I'll bet all my $H dollars on it if we could fashion some question for this....
posted 8 weeks ago
@curios - no, it's $H !!! Or is there much difference nowadays between that and $US.

@tocm - I'd agree that in the long term, the 'no bailout' option would do a lot of good. What's the term... 'constructive destruction' ? Something like that. It would appropriately punish the purveyors of risky loans, and those who stupidly accepted them. It would also prevent an increase in government power and regulation over the free market. Unfortunately it wouldn't catch all the bad actors - some would still escape scot free. But .... in the short term, some level of chaos would ensue, and innocent consumers and businesses could well be hurt among the expected bank failures, etc. So... what to do, what to do. I don't know the answer.
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 dieseldog
ditto at what radiers said. look at your 401k's and see how much you've lost. i don't wanna see anybody who's not guilty of doing anything wrong get hurt. if no bailout gets passed alot of hard working law abiding people will be hurt. if one gets passed some rich greedy folks are gonna walk free. heck the rich will be ok either way. i don't like the bailout for two reasons. 1) the govt having to much power in the free market. 2) the rewarding of bad behavior and greed. tough decision to make.
posted 7 weeks ago
I think i see a deal breaker here with this question. What if it is 700 billion like there asking for? would that be 500-700 billion or 700 and up?
posted 7 weeks ago
  6 curios
not being American if i was i would be dead against it. why should the man in the street pay for the the greed of those that have been robbing them for years, to feather there own nest the poor pay the rich get richer how much does the war cost? the one in iraq trillions i believe mind you i must ask my cousins what they think they live over there and my mate who works for google, at least the answer will be rational
posted 7 weeks ago
@curios

That is a good point. I am pretty sure that Americans will not take kindly to the fact that a significant portion of that money that Paulsen wants will go to ACORN under his plan.
They also know that 1000 Savings and Loans went belly-up in the 90's, and there was no radical "bail out" plan like this on the table then.
I think that U.S politicians are being "generous" with their citizen's money - if I were the one calling the shots, every open seat in congress would have a new person sitting in it after this election!
posted 7 weeks ago
  8 lola
Thanks for your point Dragonfangxl but the potential problem in this question lies elsewhere. The 'above $700 billion dollar' option covers anything that is one cent above $700B and the '$500-$700B' option provides for the interval. Let's just hope that the final number isn't $500B because that would make winners out of two potential outcomes.
posted 7 weeks ago
Ah thats right. If it is 500 billion then lets just say right now that its included in the 0-500 mark. Any opposers speak now or forever hold your peace. If no one opposes that before it happens lets just go with my solution
posted 7 weeks ago
  10 lola
Let's just hope it's any number other than $500 Billion.
posted 7 weeks ago
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
posted 7 weeks ago
It clearly states up to $500 Billion, then anything greater is the next option. You are correct dragon.
posted 7 weeks ago
Thank you. I had an outside motive though because i bet on 0-500. However i only bet 0-500 because i thought that that was what it included. Glad to know my biased judgment is agreed with at any rate
posted 7 weeks ago
  14 apawllo
why did i lose?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26953481/

"Altogether, the additions would swell the projected coat of the bailout from $700 billion to more than $800 billion"
posted 6 weeks ago
  15 dragon01
It definitely is more than 700 billion...ppl have already forgot about the Freddie and Fanny monies and the additional 85 billion for AGI. AND it won't end there...
posted 6 weeks ago

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