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Will "Taare Zameen Par" win the Best Foreign film in Oscar this year?

Current forecast: 20% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 20% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Taare Zameen Par tells the story of eight year old Ishaan (Darsheel Safary) who suffers greatly until a teacher (Aamir Khan) identifies him as dyslexic. Both commercially and critically acclaimed, Taare Zameen Par won the 2008 Filmfare Best Movie Award as well as a number of other Filmfare and Star Screen Awards. It was declared tax free by the Government of Delhi. The Walt Disney Company has bought the home video rights for distribution of an international edition DVD for future release in North America, the United Kingdom, and Australia. This is "the first time an international studio has bought the video rights of an Indian film."
Taare Zameen Par is India's official submission for the Academy Award for Best Foreign Film for the 81st Academy Awards. Source

"Taare Zameen Par", is the best Indian movie of the year and has been nominated this year for an Oscar in the "Best Foreign film" category. Will it win the Oscar and do India proud?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
20%
No
80%
Activity: H$270
Question suspends in 44 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 1st Oct 2009 4:59pm PDT (44 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Wed 24th Sep 2:25am PDT by arpit

Suspend date: Thu 1st Oct 2009 4:59pm PDT (44 weeks to go)
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Predictions (4)

4 predictions

8 weeks ago
brjschmidt predicted Yes (H$50 at 20%)
8 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Yes (H$100 at 20%)
8 weeks ago
ksavai predicted No (H$20 at 80%)
8 weeks ago
junkie predicted No (H$50 at 80%)

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