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Who will the FBI bring charges against first? Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman or AIG?

Current forecast: AIG (24% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is AIG with a probability of 24% (unchanged in last 1 day)

The FBI is investigating Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers and American International Group, expanding its probe of potential corporate fraud, law enforcement officials said on Wednesday.

They said the probe of the four high-profile companies at the center of the current financial crisis that has triggered the Bush administration's proposed $700 billion bailout was in the preliminary stage and no criminal charges were imminent.

Who will be formally charged first in the FBI's investigation?

If there are no charges against the four named choices by 1/1/09, it settles in favor of "none."


Settlement details: As reported by Reuters.

 
Forecast history, %
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Fannie Mae
18%
Freddie Mac
13%
Lehman Brothers
23%
AIG
24%
none
22%
Activity: H$7,637
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Fannie Mae: 20%, Freddie Mac: 20%, Lehman Brothers: 20%, AIG: 20%, none: 20%

Action history:

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
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Predictions (27)

27 predictions

2 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted Fannie Mae (H$100 at 17%)
4 weeks ago
joaoxxx predicted AIG (H$20 at 20%)
5 weeks ago
growthy predicted AIG (H$50 at 20%)
5 weeks ago
pita_soup predicted none (H$20 at 35%)
5 weeks ago
cognos[Power User] predicted Lehman Brothers (H$100 at 18%)
more

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