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Will the Obama/McCain debate happen on Friday?

Settled as Yes

Background: http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/24/campaign.wrap/index.html

A quickie.

Category Editor Clarification
This market will settle as a yes if both candidates debate on Friday. Will settle as NO if anything else occurs in which Obama and McCain don't debate.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
80%
No
20%
Settled as Yes on Sat 27th Sep 2008 12:15am PST

Suspend date: Thu 25th Sep 2008 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 27th Sep 2008 12:15am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 25th Sep 2008 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 55%

Action history:

Created Wed 24th Sep 2008 11:49am PST by jsevigny
Suspended Thu 25th Sep 2008 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Fri 26th Sep 2008 8:07am PST by Erik: "The debate is on; McCain agrees to participate"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080926/ap_on_el_pr/candidates_debate_19
Settlement requested Fri 26th Sep 2008 1:46pm PST by Erik: It seems that the 99.9% thinking should apply here so as to free up $$ to wager on other markets.
Settlement requested Fri 26th Sep 2008 11:42pm PST by drinklord: It happened.
Settled as 'Yes' Sat 27th Sep 2008 12:15am PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Thu 25th Sep 2008 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 27th Sep 2008 12:15am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 25th Sep 2008 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (230)

1 year ago
emmag predicted Yes (H$100 at 80%)
1 year ago
halberdier3 predicted No (H$237 at 19%)
1 year ago
branmyson predicted Yes (H$20 at 80%)
1 year ago
robbr25 predicted Yes (H$20 at 80%)
1 year ago
bigken1 predicted Yes (H$20 at 80%)

Comments (52)

Hm... how will this be settled if Obama hypothetically ends up debating Palin on Friday?
posted 1 year ago
Then no. Its the Obama McCain debate, not the Obama McCain campaign debate
posted 1 year ago
I see a different problem however. What if they debate.... But they debate two different people? It just say that if Obama and McCain debate that night then it settles as yes! what if mccain debates with his cab driver and obama his community that hes organizing?
posted 1 year ago
  4 pixelpaws
You're trying way too hard to try and find a problem with this. As I read this question, it will be settled as yes if - and only if - Obama and McCain debate one another in some way, shape, or form at some point on Friday. Of course, you are more than welcome to flag the question if you think that may not be correct; it's up to the admins and the question creator to clarify any questions.
posted 1 year ago
i think the idea that he was trying to hard WAS the humor
posted 1 year ago
Ok, ok, what if, and hear me out on this one, what if they get on a telephone, debate over something like pizza or campaign finance reform, and then cancel the debate in anger! What would that settle as?
posted 1 year ago
  7 mork[Power User]
This debate only takes a few hours of their time. McCain need a couple days to get his stories straight beforehand or what!?
posted 1 year ago
  8 dieseldog
what stories is that mork?
posted 1 year ago
@dragonfangxl

luls and <3 for u
posted 1 year ago
@mork

I guess there wasn't enough time in the world for Obama to get his stories straight for any of the 10 town hall meetings proposed by McCain?

gentle poke! flame me not.
posted 1 year ago
  11 mork[Power User]
What I mean is; Can't he take a few hours away from saving the economy? It's important that they have this debate. It's not every day we get to see these people without a script. The impact he will have as president is far more than anything he can contribute to the current debacle. The people want to ask questions...Come back John McCain. I understand if the guy needs a rest but I think there's already enough chiefs taking care of the money thing. Besides he's a military man not an economist.

When I see any politician contradicting themselves it indicates to me that they are speaking more rhetoric than what they actually think. I admire guy who can speak from the gut and admit when they are wrong. I'm not saying one is better than the other.

If Obama wanted out of this debate I'd be critical of that too.
posted 1 year ago
  12 emmag
Well said, Mork. Not debating might send a signal that the election itself is in jeopardy. We will have an election in 40 some odd days, and it is very important that we see and hear these candidates speak to each other about the real issues, including the bailout.
posted 1 year ago
  13 ryanb37
The Problem is that OBAMA or MCCain neather one know how to fix the economy.
Obama wants to take tax breaks away from people who create jobs and raise
all taxes to give public assistance to people who refuse to work. MCCain just has
no clue of what to do. so he is going to think about it.. Smart choice becaues
what ever he says will STICK.. so Mccain has no plan yet and obama has Jimmy
Carters plan ( we all know how that worked out)so he realy has no plan.
I do not think that the debate will happen friday.. If OBAMA wanted to debate so
bad he would have done the town hall meetings with MCcain but he didnt
posted 1 year ago
  14 chatarra
Well said Mork & RyanB37
While I will not be voting for Obama, I do not think there is anything McCain can do to "Save The Day".
Joe Biden wanted to stop campaigning for a short while to assist when hurricane Gustov was approaching Louisiana.
What the heck is "Joe Biden" going to do about stopping a hurricane?
or
What the heck is "John McCain" going to do about fixing the economy?

The typical politician has too inflated an opinion of themselves. . .
posted 1 year ago
  15 jsevigny
I think this comes down to the issue of McCain, who is at times a little rough with his words, not wanting to mix it up on Friday with an experienced civil rights attorney. Whether I'm right or wrong, the truth is, I agree with the previous poster who said that putting the democratic process on hold so McCain can fix the economy is absurd and will send more ripples of fear across Wall Street. It's not as if the election is a year away. We as voters deserve the opportunity to see these two men debate.
posted 1 year ago
@jsevigny: I tend to disagree with that assumption, because Barack was invited to all those town hall debates, and he didn't show up to any of them.
posted 1 year ago
  17 Erik
McCain is simply being a sly dog...guts poker, if you will. He suspended his campaign to go to D.C. to do what he was elected to do...be a Senator. Obama is campaigning for himself. McCain is in D.C. serving his constituants. You can't buy a better picture.
Oh he'll be at the debate...after he's seen in Washington serving his constituants for good of country and Obama is seen campaigning and fundraising for good of Obama.
posted 1 year ago
  18 destry[Admin]
One thing to keep in mind is that running a campaign is a small example of what it takes to run a country. A candidate needs to surround himself with people who can provide him good counsel, keep him on the message, react to current news and events, relay your vision to the American people. What scares me is that McCain has had serious trouble with his campaign structure, so what kind of White House would there be. I also agree with Obama that a President needs to multi-task, and needs to be able to get briefed on a situation, offer feedback, and then deal with the other 100 situations that happen. Seems like a very political decision to try and appear concerned, when he has himself stated he is "not an expert" on the economy. This decision comes same day as the polls show him falling further and further behind.
posted 1 year ago
  19 coolkraft
sly dog....no old tired dog
posted 1 year ago
  20 chatarra
@ Erik,
Your comment in right on target.
Gut Poker - McCain is forcing his hand.

If Obama follows McCain, then he is seen as a weak leader.
If Obama continues to campaign, then he can be viewed as self serving when the country needs his input.

@Destry,
Not sure I understand your position of McCain having serious trouble with his campaign structure??
Most of the difficulties he has experienced have been of his own accord - such as saying that the fundamentals of the economy are strong, without explaining how he came to that conclusion. Makes him sound out of touch.
I think the campaigns are quite different than running a country. It is purely a sales and marketing ploy.

What was the movie with Robert Redford who won the campaign and said out loud to himself as he approached the White House "Now, what do I do?".
posted 1 year ago
"such as saying that the fundamentals of the economy are strong, without explaining how he came to that conclusion. "

actually he HAS explained that outcome. You not seeing it is probably similar to the reason why most of America has fallen victim to the attacks on this statement. He was talking about the structure of our economy, the blue collar workers and the work ethic. Personally I feel he is right, though that matters very little when the way he says it will still result in a gaffe.


@destry

He is taking time away from pushing out ads and traveling on buses to do his job and solve a crisis in washington. Don't you think that any decent crew surrounding any decent candidate would do the same? There was plenty of time to debate when McCain offered 10 town hall meetings in a time of no crisis. Now that we near the election, it could be thought that canceling once in a time of crisis is anything but a mistake.
posted 1 year ago
How would this be settled if they debate via teleconference?
posted 1 year ago
  23 jsevigny
Seriously, there's nothing McCain can do in Washington to help resolve this situation. He has said he knows little about the economy. Republicans and Democrats both have suggested that it would be better if he stayed out of it. McCain is going to Washington to make sure the special interests who support him don't get burned in the socialist-style buyout that the "free market" right is all of a sudden embracing, because it means big money for big fish. I don't know whether this stunt will help or hurt McCain. What I know is that McCain isn't going to save the economy. It would be interesting to know how many Senators from either party are in Washington "doing their job."
posted 1 year ago
I agree its a Good Thing for the two men most likely to be the next president to be intimately involved in what could be a nearly trillion dollar investment into our economy. Whoever wins in November will be dealing with the ramifications of this crisis for the rest of their presidency. *But* is it neccessary to make a big deal about "suspending" a campaign to return to the Senate floor and get work done? It wasn't in the summer when Obama was dealing with FISA issues. That (to me) is what makes this political grandstanding. Yes, go to DC and get stuff done. Great! But don't then spend 2 hours in TV talk shows telling me that you did it and deriding your opponent for not doing the exact same thing.

Secondly, the comparison between the proposed townhall meetings and the pre-scheduled debates is hardly fair. The Town Hall meetings were never agreed to by both parties. In contrast, the presidential debates are a staple of the presidential election process and have been scheduled since well before there were presidential nominees.. they are not a last minute suggestion, to be rescheduled at convenience. Check out the website for more: http://debates.org/
posted 1 year ago
Look it is a senators job to respond to crisises and so far all that congress has done is sit on there asses letting the treasury handle the issues when its the senates responsibilty not the treasury. I think it is a great idea for McCain to suspend his campaign and jumpstart congress into action. It shows that he clearly understands the situation unlike Obama. The reason obama is in a lose lose situation is becuase he put himself into one by not acting. Pretty much all we can expect from obama, sitting arou nd with inaction.
posted 1 year ago
  26 cognos
Running off to DC, McCain will only get in the way, and possibly distract those who DO know about economics. I can not think of any reason for him to be there other than as an absolutely political ploy to 'act' Presidential.

McCain's lack of support for oversight in the first place, helped give birth to this monster problem.

Americans (most of us) can 'see' right through this move.

I suppose we'll hear him and his cronies give him credit for 'fixing this mess' sooner or later.

I didn't support Obama in the beginning, and might not 'believe in the change', but, I will certainly vote, even if only to vote against McCain, and the Bush policies.

a Maverick? I don't think so. Zipping around in a jet fighter or spending time at Hanoi Hilton does not a leader make.
posted 1 year ago
  27 Erik
lol....Y'all just don't get it. It doesn't matter if McCain can "save the economy"

At least he was in DC doing his job. Friday night comes around and McCain flies into the debates from D.C.....Obama flies in from a fundraiser.
Gotta love the press on that one.
posted 1 year ago
  28 Erik
Whatever Obama does at this point....it's going to look to be self-serving. He can't win. Chalk another one up for the old guy.
(old age and treachery always beats youth and skill ;))
posted 1 year ago
Yes... because you get skill from that 6 months you spent in congress before deciding to run for president, not from spending 30 YEARS IN CONGRESS! During that time he led us through a very successful period of our nation. Therefore McCain: Skill and Experience Obama: No experience and inaction. The reason that he is in a lose lose situation is because he did something wrong. He didnt offer to go do his job. Inaction, thy name is Democrats
posted 1 year ago
  30 jsevigny
McCain voted against a holiday for MLK. McCain hates gooks. McCain has never sent an e-mail. Jesus.
posted 1 year ago
I feel as though the presidential selection process has grown so big that no one seems to understand that even while running, a candidate that currently holds office has a job to do. Whether or not you personally believe he/she can actually help is not important. Those who elected them to their current office expect them to do their job.

I agree that the town hall meetings were different from the scheduled debate. But lets put the numbers out there. If McCain misses this one debate, then that is 1 missed opportunity. The 10 town hall meetings were ALL shot down by Obama. And if you think it was because he was making trips back to Washington do his job, that is incorrect.

I kinda hope McCain does make it to the debate though. Hopefully the Obama campaign has not let their guard down thinking McCain has no chance of showing up. Neither candidate looks good when caught off guard.
posted 1 year ago
What do you mean by "Gooks"? And Robamichael that is exactly what he is doing... Jsevigny Obama has 6 months of experience, he has attended a anti white church for 20 years, he has a shady history of terrorists and a corrupting chicago real estate company. I think a minor lapse of knowledge of internet makes up for that. Whats worse, hating a small percentage of the people (whatever the hell gooks is) or hating the vast majority of the population (white people). Neither is probably preferable but McCain is the best option.
posted 1 year ago
"Action by the Congress is urgently required to stabilize the situation and avert what otherwise could be very serious consequences for our financial markets and for our economy," says the wall street journal. If there waiting for congress to act there going to be waiting for quite awhile
posted 1 year ago
  34 nicfulton
Why is this suspended?
posted 1 year ago
It seems that it passed the suspend date, but I think the question is nowhere actually resolved yet... could a mod push back the settlement time until tomorrow?
posted 1 year ago
  36 destry[Admin]
The question creator chose to suspend this market today, which is in accordance with our rules for suspending markets. Some creators like to suspend markets so there is some predictive value to them. As an admin we don't change suspend dates as long as they are in accordance with the Hubdub rules.
posted 1 year ago
@destry: thanks for the explanation
posted 1 year ago
  38 coolkraft
gee John whatcha gonna do now? send in Sarah? send in Cindy? pick a new running mate? you got yourself in one big box
posted 1 year ago
I doubt that he would send his Vp to debate someone who is probably a better speaker than her. Better than McCain im sorry to say(at speaking and speaking only). So the debate is probably off.
posted 1 year ago
If the "Bail Out" is so neccesary, and it needs to happen yesterday, then why are the markets not crashing, why are people still getting pay checks, why is business still moving forward? It would seem that if the Fed chairman, the president, and the Sec. of the treasury are so convinced that we are on the brink with this crisis, that the markets would be withering and the whole country would be shutting down, but its not. Its a rich man's crisis, and its socialism. I'll bet that if there is no bail out, we will be better off in the long run.... I'll bet all my $H dollars on it if we could fashion some question for this....
posted 1 year ago
  41 drinklord
So wait, John McCain (and Obama) have been away from the Senate for months, and you're going to give McCain beaucoup props because he's finally showing up to work one day? Neither of these guys have been doing much in the Senate, which is understandable given the office they're running for. What doesn't make sense is that John McCain thinks that he can rush back to DC, without having participated in the intricate discussions over the past 7 days, and make some big change. Even his Republican colleagues are saying that he was silent in tonight's meeting.

He and Obama lack the knowledge to be major players in this discussion since they've been out campaigning instead of talking with the major players hours a day for the past week. At least Obama makes no pretenses about this.
posted 1 year ago
  42 dieseldog
mccain tried to stop freddie and frannie from the subprime loans. the dems blocked his efforts. as ted kenndy said..FACTS ARE A STUBBORN THING. don't take my word for it, ask katie couric. she used it while interviewing palin. couric: can you tell me what john mccain did "BESIDES" trying to regulate freddie and frannie? has the MSM ask obama what he did to stop this whole mess? has the MSM said anything about obama's (has the best judgement cause he was againest the iraq war) lack of comment till days after this whole mess? as mccain said..presidents don't get to vote present. they gotta act and lead. obama has showed zero leadership in the mess. he wanted to issue a joint statement with mccain, and move on.
posted 1 year ago
  43 dieseldog
obama will sit down with the dictators of the world (no preconditions) behind closed doors and talk to them, but wouldn't debate mccain cause they couldn't agree on the preconditions. the 3 debates he agreed to all have preconditions. so he'll be more accomdating to the dictator's of the world, than he will for the american people. think i'll run out and campaign for obama next week. thats the kind of leadership and judgement the USA needs. just a right wingers view. steps of soapbox.
posted 1 year ago
  44 drinklord
Dieseldog, the facts don't bear you out:
(a) Obama has repeatedly said that he would talk with Iran, etc., if it would be in the strategic interest of the USA.
(b) Obama is not the one who tried to back out of the debates.
posted 1 year ago
"(b) Obama is not the one who tried to back out of the debates. "

as said before I think you mean debatE. And he has actually... ten of them. Personally I think understanding both of the candidate via town hall meetings would have been in great strategic interest to the American people.
posted 1 year ago
  46 Erik
It seems that the 99.9% thinking should apply here so as to free up $$ to wager on other markets.
Please settle.
posted 1 year ago
  47 destry[Admin]
Market will settle after the debate has begun at the earliest.
posted 1 year ago
  48 Erik
Question Guidelines & Rules
2.2.6 Settlement
Where possible we like to settle questions early. If something is 99.9% certain then we will tend to settle it. Every one in a 1,000 times we get it wrong we will also pay-out on the correct outcome
posted 1 year ago
We cant know for sure until its actually happened. McCain may take time off from the deal to do the debate. Or he may not. Its a 75/25 chance. so Chapter 2 page 2 sentence 6 (aka 2.2.6) doesnt apply here
posted 1 year ago
Breaking news the wall street journal reports that:"Sept. 26, 2008
McCain said he will participate in the debate scheduled for tonight and resume all campaign activities. He cited "significant progress toward a bipartisan" agreement in the financial-rescue talks." Great! This is good news!
posted 1 year ago
  51 drinklord
Any reason this isn't settled yet?
posted 1 year ago
  52 drinklord
@robamichael - Obama has not backed out of a debate. Sure, McCain wanted to do a series of town hall meetings. Obama didn't, as short questions in a town-hall style is not his preferred format. But there is a world of difference between not agreeing to a town hall meeting and backing out of a debate after you had agreed to do it. And mind you, I'm not trying to criticize McCain here. He does what he needs to do; fine. But to criticize Obama on this topic is quite audacious.
posted 1 year ago

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