Created Wed 24th Sep 12:59pm PDT by 
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Will any of NASA's rubber ducks make it in to Baffin Bay before August 1st, 2009?
Current forecast: 55% chance 
3%
3%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 55% likely to happen (up 3% in last 1 day)
I know this is a longer term market, but I couldn't resist a story about NASA resorting to the use of rubber ducks!
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When a sophisticated science probe failed to return any data about whether pools of melted glacial ice were showing up in the ocean, a NASA researcher turned to a decidedly low-tech solution: a brigade of rubber ducks.
Robotics expert Alberto Behar, with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., wants to figure out if water shooting through tunnels in Greenland's Jakobshavn Glacier makes it into Baffin Bay.
He labeled 90 rubber ducks with an e-mail address and the words "science experiment" and "reward" written in English, Danish and the native Inuit language, then set the toys loose in a moulin.
The idea was that fisherman would find the ducks and notify Behar where they were found.
He's still waiting for first contact.
Baffin Bay, an ice-laden body of water between northeast Canada and Greenland, freezes over in the winter, so Martin is hoping the ducks might be located next summer.
NASA Dispatches Rubber Ducks for Science
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When a sophisticated science probe failed to return any data about whether pools of melted glacial ice were showing up in the ocean, a NASA researcher turned to a decidedly low-tech solution: a brigade of rubber ducks.
Robotics expert Alberto Behar, with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., wants to figure out if water shooting through tunnels in Greenland's Jakobshavn Glacier makes it into Baffin Bay.
He labeled 90 rubber ducks with an e-mail address and the words "science experiment" and "reward" written in English, Danish and the native Inuit language, then set the toys loose in a moulin.
The idea was that fisherman would find the ducks and notify Behar where they were found.
He's still waiting for first contact.
Baffin Bay, an ice-laden body of water between northeast Canada and Greenland, freezes over in the winter, so Martin is hoping the ducks might be located next summer.
NASA Dispatches Rubber Ducks for Science
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
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Activity: H$2,780
Question suspends in 36 weeks
Suspend date: Sat 1st Aug 2009 12:59am PDT (36 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Action history:
Created Wed 24th Sep 12:59pm PDT by mrperfkt
mrperfkt
Suspend date: Sat 1st Aug 2009 12:59am PDT (36 weeks to go)
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (24)
24 predictions
rogerkni
mikeo7b3
dean1
bigken1
deelilley
aland
dragon01
bayoubear
captainron
cici
bout3fitty
paulcroft
infernalmachine
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predicted Yes (H$222 at 51%)
morkComments (4)
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score: 10
BBC 4 days ago
as the filling and draining of two subglacial lakes some two kilometres below the top of the ice. Nasa's Icesat spacecraft tracks changes in the height of the ice sheet The numbers involved are remarkable. In a normal year, Byrd Glacier would funnel
score: 10
New Scientist 4 days ago
the Antarctic floods are in any way linked to climate change. 'It is hard to see how anthropogenic global warming would affect the base of the ice sheet,' he says. Journal reference: Nature Geoscience (DOI: 10.1038/ngeo356) If you would like to reuse any
score: 10
Reuters Canada 6 days ago
Bay sub-population of polar bears. It said their numbers have fallen by 30 percent to just 1,500 animals in 15 years. Environment Minister Jim Prentice said he will host a gathering of officials from the Canadian government, the northern territory of
score: 10
The Times 6 days ago
After years of research and with the fate of planet Earth hanging in the balance the Nasa scientist who helped to put a robot on Mars has finally completed work on a device that can measure how fast Greenlands ice-cap is melting. The bright yellow probe
score: 10
CBC North 6 days ago
A Canadian expert on wildlife co-management systems says a joint survey of polar bear populations in Nunavut's Baffin Bay region could resolve disagreements between biologists and Inuit hunters over how many polar bears are there. A joint research
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I am betting no, but I hope I am wrong.
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