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Will the Russians build a Naval base in Iran (Gulf of Oman) before 2012?

Current forecast: 49% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 49% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

If U.S. - Russia relations gets hoarse could this be an Russia response to U.S. moves in the Persia Gulf.
Would this a possible response to the Georgia and Ukrania entering in NATO?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
49%
No
51%
Activity: H$2,827
Question suspends in 3 years

Suspend date: Sat 31st Dec 2011 1:59am PST (3 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 25th Sep 8:56am PDT by esop

Suspend date: Sat 31st Dec 2011 1:59am PST (3 years to go)
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Predictions (11)

11 predictions

1 hour ago
alexrettie predicted Yes (H$50 at 49%)
4 weeks ago
esop predicted No (H$100 at 51%)
7 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted No (H$100 at 51%)
7 weeks ago
johnd predicted Yes (H$50 at 49%)
7 weeks ago
tyndor predicted No (H$50 at 51%)
more

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