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Will David Blane stage another large scale stunt in the next year?

Current forecast: 50% chance 2%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 50% likely to happen (down 2% in last 1 day)

After earning his chops as a skilled street magician, David Blane has spent much of this decade doing stupid publicity stunts. His latest, the so called "Dive of Death" has been universally panned as completely stupid and pointless. Will this inspire him to do something else (can he juggle 700 billion dollars??) or will he lay low for a while (in shame)?

Previous stunts:
Buried Alive -- April 5, 1999
Frozen in Time -- November 27, 2000
Vertigo -- May 22, 2002
Above the Below -- September 5, 2003
Drowned Alive -- May 1, 2006
Revolution -- November 16, 2006
Dive of Death -- September 18, 2008
Stupid stunt #8 --?


Settlement details: To settle, must be large scale such as previous stunts listed. Something that lasts only minutes will not count.. a simple magic special won't count and reenacting the ending of dive of death (as he did with the drowned stunt on Oprah) won't count.

Settles on September 24, 2009

We can settle on announcement of a planned stunt from Blane.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
50%
No
50%
Activity: H$2,687
Question suspends in 41 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 6th Sep 2009 12:59am PDT (41 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 25th Sep 11:59am PDT by frankgarcia61
Suspended Thu 25th Sep 3:29pm PDT by theonecalledmichael: Flagged by super user: I like the question, but it is subjective....I'm almost 100
% sure he will, though.....perhaps a note to the creator clarifying or quantifying boredom....
Unsuspended Fri 26th Sep 5:33am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: market has been edited

Suspend date: Sun 6th Sep 2009 12:59am PDT (41 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (8)

8 predictions

19 hours ago
baja181 predicted Yes (H$100 at 50%)
7 weeks ago
philphan1 predicted Yes (H$20 at 52%)
7 weeks ago
thomasbjur predicted No (H$100 at 48%)
7 weeks ago
theonecalledmichael predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 51%)
8 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted No (H$200 at 50%)

Comments (7)

I like it, but it's subjective....
posted 8 weeks ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
I'd be happy to say that all David Blane stunts are boring. Seems cut and dry to me!
posted 8 weeks ago
so do we unsuspend and just wait to see if he performs any "magic" this year? LOL....
posted 8 weeks ago
  4 tisha[Admin]
no - i'm happy to let jenni decide - she's probably more impartial than i am :-)
posted 8 weeks ago
Why not just clarify the settlment options as "any stunt"?
posted 8 weeks ago
Media whore that he is, I'm sure he will come up with something, since his "DIVE OF DEATH" fizzled....
posted 7 weeks ago
Well they changed the title to make anyone here who hadnt seen the original question confused by comments 1-6.... and maybe 7
posted 7 weeks ago

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