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Will David Blane stage another large scale stunt in the next year?

Settled as No

After the widely panned "Dive of Death" Blaine has been relatively quiet.

Background:

Background: After earning his chops as a skilled street magician, David Blane has spent much of this decade doing stupid publicity stunts. His latest, the so called "Dive of Death" has been universally panned as completely stupid and pointless. Will this inspire him to do something else (can he juggle 700 billion dollars??) or will he lay low for a while (in shame)?

Previous stunts:
Buried Alive -- April 5, 1999
Frozen in Time -- November 27, 2000
Vertigo -- May 22, 2002
Above the Below -- September 5, 2003
Drowned Alive -- May 1, 2006
Revolution -- November 16, 2006
Dive of Death -- September 18, 2008
Stupid stunt #8 --?

Settlement details:To settle, must be large scale such as previous stunts listed. Something that lasts only minutes will not count.. a simple magic special won't count and reenacting the ending of dive of death (as he did with the drowned stunt on Oprah) won't count.

Settles on September 24, 2009

We can settle on announcement of a planned stunt from Blane.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
7%
No
93%
Settled as No on Wed 23rd Sep 10:59am PST

Suspend date: Sat 5th Sep 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 23rd Sep 10:59am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 5th Sep 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 25th Sep 2008 10:59am PST by frankgarcia61
Suspended Thu 25th Sep 2008 2:29pm PST by theonecalledmichael: Flagged by super user: I like the question, but it is subjective....I'm almost 100
% sure he will, though.....perhaps a note to the creator clarifying or quantifying boredom....
Unsuspended Fri 26th Sep 2008 4:33am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: market has been edited
Suspended Sat 5th Sep 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'No' Wed 23rd Sep 10:59am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: After the widely panned "Dive of Death" Blaine has been relatively quiet.

Suspend date: Sat 5th Sep 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 23rd Sep 10:59am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 5th Sep 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (51)

12 weeks ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted No (H$4,000 at 74%)
13 weeks ago
slackeradam predicted No (H$100 at 72%)
13 weeks ago
cookietime predicted No (H$1,000 at 71%)
13 weeks ago
thomasjmaccoll predicted No (H$20 at 70%)
13 weeks ago
cookietime predicted No (H$500 at 70%)

Comments (10)

I like it, but it's subjective....
posted 1 year ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
I'd be happy to say that all David Blane stunts are boring. Seems cut and dry to me!
posted 1 year ago
so do we unsuspend and just wait to see if he performs any "magic" this year? LOL....
posted 1 year ago
  4 tisha[Admin]
no - i'm happy to let jenni decide - she's probably more impartial than i am :-)
posted 1 year ago
Why not just clarify the settlment options as "any stunt"?
posted 1 year ago
Media whore that he is, I'm sure he will come up with something, since his "DIVE OF DEATH" fizzled....
posted 1 year ago
Well they changed the title to make anyone here who hadnt seen the original question confused by comments 1-6.... and maybe 7
posted 1 year ago
Do I read this question as 'pulling a large stunt before Sept 24, 2009'? The 'in the next year' part has me confused.
posted 13 weeks ago
yep - sept 24th is the "year" point for the question.
posted 13 weeks ago
So he would have to pull some big stunt within 5 weeks or so. Nothing in the works publicly so I'm voting no, this is money in the bank.
posted 13 weeks ago

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