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How many seats will the Liberals win in the 2008 Canadian election?

Background: As of the date of posting this question, support for the Liberals, according to various polls, is plummetting. News reports characterize Liberals as wanting now merely to "survive for another day."

Poll tracking

An example of polling results as of the day of the question's posting:

CPC: 40%
LPC: 25%
NDP: 19%
BQ: 9%
GPC: 8%

Will the Liberals be able to shore up support? Will there be a 1984- (or 1993-!) style meltdown? Or will there be a miracle?

The Liberals won 103 seats in the last election, but at the dissolution of Parliament, they held only 95.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
100 +
22%
90-99
14%
80-89
24%
70-79
21%
60-69
11%
50-59
5%
40-49
2%
Less than 40
1%
Settled as 70-79 on Wed 15th Oct 2008 8:52am PST

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2008 8:52am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 100 +: 5%, 90-99: 15%, 80-89: 15%, 70-79: 15%, 60-69: 15%, 50-59: 15%, 40-49: 15%, Less than 40: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 25th Sep 2008 11:43am PST by rpfreely
Changed Suspend date Sat 11th Oct 2008 8:49am PST by infernalmachine[Power User]: was: "2008-10-13 23:59:00"
Suspended Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 15th Oct 2008 1:26am PST by mork[Power User]: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/ridings/
Settled as '70-79' Wed 15th Oct 2008 8:52am PST by infernalmachine[Power User]: 76 seats won
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/federal-election-2008

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2008 8:52am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (84)

1 year ago
gumbloid predicted 80-89 (H$100 at 23%)
1 year ago
rpfreely predicted 90-99 (H$20 at 14%)
1 year ago
tweeg707 predicted 100 + (H$50 at 22%)
1 year ago
tweeg707 predicted 90-99 (H$50 at 14%)
1 year ago
tweeg707 predicted 80-89 (H$50 at 22%)

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