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Which Presidential/VP debate will have the most television viewers?

Settled as Vice Presidential debate

There are currently three Presidential debates and one Vice Presidential debate scheduled before the 2008 election. Which of these debates will have the highest number of viewers watching on television?

This question will be settled based on the Nielsen ratings, plus the estimated viewer counts from PBS and CSPAN if they are made available for all 4 debates.

The question also allows for the possibility of additional debate(s) not currently planned at the time of question creation.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/08/22/debate_schedule_is_set/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_debates


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

First Presidential debate (foreign policy)
1%
Vice Presidential debate
72%
Second Presidential debate (town hall format)
5%
Third Presidential debate (domestic policy)
19%
Another Presidential/VP debate
2%
Activity: H$52,956
Settled as Vice Presidential debate on Sat 18th Oct 4:54pm PDT

Suspend date: Thu 16th Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 18th Oct 4:54pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 16th Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: First Presidential debate (foreign policy): 20%, Vice Presidential debate: 35%, Second Presidential debate (town hall format): 20%, Third Presidential debate (domestic policy): 20%, Another Presidential/VP debate: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 27th Sep 12:17pm PDT by neuronexmachina
Suspended Thu 16th Oct 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 16th Oct 4:52pm PDT by cheesenips: http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1642684520081016

Please settle as VP debate. VP debate was the most watched TV debate in 16 years!
Settlement requested Sat 18th Oct 3:05pm PDT by joaoxxx: VP debate, now that the 3rd debate had 56.5 million viewers -- http://www.timeswv.com/entertainment/local_story_291101429.html (quoting Nielsen Media Research) or any source here http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&scoring=d&q=debate+million+viewers+56.5&btnG=Search
Settled as 'Vice Presidential debate' Sat 18th Oct 4:54pm PDT by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Thu 16th Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 18th Oct 4:54pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 16th Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (213)

213 predictions

5 weeks ago
exilpat predicted Third Presidential debate (domestic policy) (H$50 at 19%)
5 weeks ago
allaboutme predicted Vice Presidential debate (H$20 at 72%)
5 weeks ago
oliver predicted Vice Presidential debate (H$50 at 72%)
5 weeks ago
andrewdb predicted Vice Presidential debate (H$50 at 72%)
5 weeks ago
langbenj predicted Third Presidential debate (domestic policy) (H$300 at 16%)
more

Comments (3)

I added the boston.com link for the debate schedule because the top google hit (youdecide2008.com) wasn't working, but I just noticed that it doesn't include the VP debate. Here's a schedule which includes the VP debate: http://debates.org/pages/news_092108.html

--

First presidential debate: foreign policy and national security, moderated by Jim Lehrer
Friday, September 26, University of Mississippi, Oxford, Miss.
-Two-minute answers, followed by five-minute discussion for each question.

Vice presidential debate: all topics, moderated by Gwen Ifill
Thursday, October 2, Washington University in St. Louis, Mo.
-Ninety-second answers, followed by two-minute discussion for each question. Two-minute closing statements.

Second presidential debate: all topics in town meeting format, moderated by Tom Brokaw
Tuesday, October 7, Belmont University, Nashville, TN
-Two-minute answers, followed by one-minute discussion for each question.

Third presidential debate: the economy and domestic policy, moderated by Bob Schieffer
Wednesday, October 15, Hofstra University, Hempstead, N.Y.
-Two-minute answers, followed by five-minute discussion for each question. Two-minute closing statements.
posted 7 weeks ago
Looks like Joe and Sarah easily trounced the first presidential debate's numbers.. now we wait and see what happens for the next two. http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/10/03/overnight-ratings-nearly-40-million-watch-sarah-palin-joe-biden-debate-on-broadcast-networks/5611
posted 7 weeks ago

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