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Created Sat 27th Sep 4:11pm PDT by yonemoto
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

Will there be a faithless elector in the 2008 election?

Current forecast: 27% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 27% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

A faithless elector is an member of the electoral college who votes for the president not in accordance with the directives set forth by the state the elector represents. There have been many faithless electors in the past (> 150). The last faithless elector voted in the 2000 elections.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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 Yes
27%
No
73%
Activity: H$7,303
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 14th Dec 8pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Sat 27th Sep 4:11pm PDT by yonemoto
Changed Question text Sat 27th Sep 5pm PDT by destry[Admin]: show details
... ... willWill there be a faithless elector in the 2008 election?
Changed Suspend date Sat 27th Sep 5pm PDT by destry[Admin]: was: "2009-01-19 20:00:00"

Suspend date: Sun 14th Dec 8pm PST (3 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (30)

30 predictions

6 days ago
growthy predicted No (H$100 at 73%)
2 weeks ago
davecade predicted Yes (H$20 at 28%)
2 weeks ago
davecade predicted Yes (H$20 at 27%)
2 weeks ago
libertarianelector predicted Yes (H$100 at 27%)
2 weeks ago
kgholderman predicted No (H$20 at 73%)
more

Comments (5)

  1 cheesenips
@yonemoto, By "faithless elector" would you include electors who vote for a candidate who has died before the Electoral College has cast their votes? According to this site http://www.fairvote.org/e_college/faithless.htm , that situation accounts for 71 of the 156 faithless votes to date. Since you cite >150, presumably such votes would be included as "faithless electors" for purposes of settling this question?
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 yonemoto
yes.
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 yonemoto
Misspellings and ordering mistakes, party mistakes will also count, unless 1) the count is redone and the corrected ballot is sent to congress, or 2) if the elector comes forward before inauguration day and admits an unintentional error/mistake even if it the vote is entered into the record. So it has to be a true faithless elector, not an 'accidental' faithless elector (up to inauguration day).
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 theonecalledmichael
with a rebel yell.....
posted 7 weeks ago
  5 dragonfangxl
Inagurator: "Speak now or forever hold your peace"
Electoral college member: "I OBJECT!!!!!"
posted 7 weeks ago

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