Created Sat 27th Sep 4:44pm PDT by 
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Will USA or Russia fire upon the ship overtaken by pirates containing tanks?
Current forecast: Ends peacefully (80% chance
1%)
1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Ends peacefully with a probability of 80% (down 1% in last 1 day)
A ship containing military tanks and grenade launcher has been hijacked by Somalian pirates and is now anchored off the coast of Somalia. Russia and the United States have sent warships to the area and US destroyer 'The Howard' apparently has it within sight.
Kenya, who was expecting delivery of the ships cargo, says they are discussing military options with several other countries.
Related article: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/world/africa/28pirates.html?ref=africa
Kenya, who was expecting delivery of the ships cargo, says they are discussing military options with several other countries.
Related article: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/world/africa/28pirates.html?ref=africa
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Including small arms fire from land, sea, or air. Suspension of this question may be delayed until the ship is no longer in control of the pirates
Make your prediction!
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Russia fires |
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U.S. fires |
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Another Nation fires |
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Ends peacefully |
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Other outcome / More than one |
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Activity: H$28,377
Question suspends in 3 weeks
Suspend date: Fri 12th Dec 3:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Russia fires: 5%, U.S. fires: 5%, Another Nation fires: 3%, Ends peacefully: 85%, Other outcome / More than one: 2%
Action history:
Created Sat 27th Sep 4:44pm PDT by mork
mork
Suspended Sat 1st Nov 4:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Changed Description Mon 3rd Nov 7:22pm PST by 
infernalmachine![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... ' apparently has it within sight. <.<br/> <br/> Kenya, who was ... options with several other countries. <.<br/> <br/> Related article: <a
Changed Settlement info Mon 3rd Nov 7:22pm PST by infernalmachine: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... a major mainstream news source. <.<br/> Including small arms fire
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 7:22pm PST by infernalmachine: was: "2008-11-01 15:59:00"
infernalmachine: was: "2008-11-01 15:59:00"
Unsuspended Mon 3rd Nov 7:25pm PST by infernalmachine: Question unsuspended with new makeshift suspend date in December. Basically, it settles when the ship is released, unless there are shots fired before that.
infernalmachine: Question unsuspended with new makeshift suspend date in December. Basically, it settles when the ship is released, unless there are shots fired before that.
Suspend date: Fri 12th Dec 3:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (130)
130 predictions
mr_ecky_geping
rogi
jimbo
bigken1
gonzonson2051
nadine_dr_computer
ellyComments (15)
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This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
score: 10
Xinhuanet 17 hours ago
The United States imposed on Thursday financial sanctions against three alleged leaders of an extremist Islamic militia in Somalia. Photo Gallery>>> The three targeted by the U.S. Treasury Department are Mukhtar Robow, spokesman for al-Shabaab and a
score: 10
Xinhuanet 18 hours ago
The United States imposed on Thursday financial sanctions against three alleged leaders of an extremist Islamic militia in Somalia. The three targeted by the U.S. Treasury Department are Mukhtar Robow, spokesman for al-Shabaab and a military commander
score: 10
CHINAdaily 19 hours ago
MOGADISHU ? Somali pirates who hijacked a Saudi oil super-tanker demanded a 25 million dollar ransom Thursday amid calls for tougher action to end threats to one of the world's key maritime routes
score: 10
Xinhuanet 1 day ago
call, the European Union (EU) has agreed to deploy an air and naval force off the coast of Somalia to guard sea lanes against piracy. The EU's naval mission, to be in place by next month, is expected to protect vulnerable vessels off the coast and help
score: 10
Mail Online UK 1 day ago
The Royal Navy will spearhead military operations against Somali pirates, the Foreign Secretary has said. David Miliband's announcement yesterday came as the families of two British hostages spoke of their hope that the men would be 'home safely very
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/29/world/main4484289.shtml
It's in the 'settlement details'.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7643561.stm
The $20M ransom has been reduced to $8M:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27067220/
http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2008/10/13/1992942-somali-pirates-may-extend-deadline-on-ships-fate
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