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Will it be determined that a Iranian ship overtaken by pirates contains chemical weapons?

Settled as No

The ship reached Holland and was inspected by authorities there and given a clean bill of health.
http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/hijacked-iranian-bulker-berths-at-rotterdam/20017590404.htm

Background:

Somali pirates are likely having regrets after hijacking an Iranian ship.

Within days of overtaking the MV Iran Deyanat some pirates have suffered from hair loss, skin burns and even died.

The ships cargo was declared as 'minerals' and 'industrial chemicals'.

Some officials negotiating its release are convinced it is containing small arms and chemical weapons and was destined to Somalia's Islamist rebels.

Original SA Sunday Times article: http://www.thetimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Article.aspx?id=851953

More recent Fox article: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,430681,00.html

If no reports of chemical weapons are made before the new year this question will settle as 'No' in January.

Category editor note: I know some people are having problems getting the Times (SA) article. Here is a Somali site that basically repeats that article: http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=8054&tirsan=3 Also, a blog post link on the topic.

Clarification: As said in comment #4, if it is reported that chemicals "intended to be used for chemical weaponry" are found, this will also count toward settling as Yes. Also, for the purpose of this question, we will include nuclear material intended for weapon use as falling under "containing chemical weapons".


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. If no reports of chemical weapons are made before the new year this question will settle as 'No' in January.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
44%
No
56%
Activity: H$12,598
Settled as No on Fri 14th Nov 4:55pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) Settlement date: Fri 14th Nov 4:55pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sat 27th Sep 5:21pm PDT by mork[Power User]
Changed Description Mon 29th Sep 2:05pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: show details
... Somali pirates are likely having regrets after hijacking an Iranian ... ship. <br/>ship.<br/> <br/> Within days of overtaking the MV Iran Deyanat some pirates have suffered from hair loss, skin burns and even ... died. <br/>died.<br/> <br/> The ships cargo was declared as 'minerals' and 'industrial ... chemicals'. <br/>chemicals'.<br/> <br/> Some officials negotiating it's release are convinced it is containing small arms and chemical weapons and was destined to ... Somalia’sSomalia’s Islamist ... rebels. <br/>rebels.<br/> <br/> Related article: <a ... href="http://www.thetimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Article.aspx?id=851953">http://www.thetimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Article.aspx?id=851953</a> <br/>href="http://www.thetimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Article.aspx?id=851953">http://www.thetimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Article.aspx?id=851953</a><br/> <br/> If no reports of chemical weapons are made before the new year this question will settle as 'No' in ... January. <br/>January.<br/> <br/> <b>Category editor note:</b> I know some people are having ... is a Somali site that basically repeats that article: <a ... href="http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=8054&tirsan=3">http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=8054&tirsan=3</a> <br/>href="http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=8054&amp;tirsan=3">http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=8054&amp;tirsan=3</a> Also, in ... the commentscomment #2 I have a blog post link on the topic. ... (I will see<br/> <br/> <b>Clarification:</b> As said in comment #4, if ... I can make a pdf ofit is reported that chemicals "intended to be used for chemical weaponry" are found, this will also count toward settling as Yes. Also, for the ... original article available soon.)purpose of this question, we will include nuclear material intended for weapon use as falling under "containing chemical weapons".
Changed Description Wed 1st Oct 11:10pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: show details
... Somali pirates are likely having regrets after hijacking an Iranian ... ship. <br/>ship.<br/> <br/> Within days of overtaking the MV Iran Deyanat some pirates have suffered from hair loss, skin burns and even ... died. <br/>died.<br/> <br/> The ships cargo was declared as 'minerals' and 'industrial ... chemicals'. <br/>chemicals'.<br/> <br/> Some officials negotiating it's release are convinced it is ... arms and chemical weapons and was destined to Somalia's Islamist ... rebels.rebels.<br/> <br/> ... <br/> RelatedOriginal SA Sunday Times article: <a ... href="http://www.thetimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Article.aspx?id=851953">http://www.thetimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Article.aspx?id=851953</a> <br/>href="http://www.thetimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Article.aspx?id=851953">http://www.thetimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Article.aspx?id=851953</a><br/> <br/> More recent Fox article: <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,430681,00.html">http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,430681,00.html</a><br/> If no reports of chemical weapons are made before the new year this question will settle as 'No' in ... January. <br/>January.<br/> <br/> <b>Category editor note:</b> I know some people are having ... is a Somali site that basically repeats that article: <a ... href="http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=8054&tirsan=3">http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=8054&tirsan=3</a>href="http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=8054&amp;tirsan=3">http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=8054&amp;tirsan=3</a> Also, ... in comment #2 I have a<a href="http://therightperspective.com/wordpress/?p=128">a blog post link on the ... topic.topic</a>. <br/> <br/> <b>Clarification:</b> As said in comment #4, if it
Suspended Fri 14th Nov 4:28pm PST by mork[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Fri 14th Nov 4:28pm PST by mork[Power User]: No hazardous substances were found and the paperwork was in order, a port spokesman said. http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/hijacked-iranian-bulker-berths-at-rotterdam/20017590404.htm (market suspended)
Settled as 'No' Fri 14th Nov 4:55pm PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: The ship reached Holland and was inspected by authorities there and given a clean bill of health.
http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/hijacked-iranian-bulker-berths-at-rotterdam/20017590404.htm

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) Settlement date: Fri 14th Nov 4:55pm PST
more info...

 

Predictions (80)

80 predictions

1 week ago
shojun predicted No (H$20 at 56%)
1 week ago
steez predicted Yes (H$50 at 44%)
1 week ago
jgardner100 predicted No (H$20 at 56%)
2 weeks ago
rogi predicted Yes (H$50 at 43%)
2 weeks ago
bohnanza predicted No (H$50 at 57%)
more

Comments (12)

  1 gabby
Persian Gypsy curse that's all...
posted 7 weeks ago
For those of you who can't read the SA Times article in the background, here is an article I found that basically covers the same ground:
http://therightperspective.com/wordpress/?p=128
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 oppugner
How will the question be settled if no actual (ie ready to use) chemical weapons are found but it is reported that some CW components are aboard?
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 mork[Power User]
@oppugner
This question will settle as 'yes' if chemicals are found on board and it is reported that they were intended to be used for chemical weaponry (This includes nuclear material).
posted 7 weeks ago
  6 mork[Power User]
This is floating around the web:

"
Although American intelligence and government sources are maintaining a strictly observed silence, the same does not apply to the Russians and so it is that we learn the real story of the MV Iran Deyanat. She was an enormous floating dirty bomb, intended to detonate after exiting the Suez Canal at the eastern end of the Mediterranean and in proximity to the coastal cities of Israel. The entire cargo of radioactive sand, obtained by Iran from China (the latter buys desperately needed oil from the former) and sealed in containers which, when the charges on the ship are set off after the crew took to the boats, will be blasted high into the air where prevailing winds will push the highly dangerous and radioactive cloud ashore."
posted 6 weeks ago
  7 chatarra
@ Mork:
Thanks for the info!

"Unconventional Delivery Systems" pose the greatest threat - because they are so hard to detect.
posted 6 weeks ago
@Mork
If the dirty bomb story is true those pirates should all be sent to Israel for a huge feast with speeches, medals, awards – and then shot!
posted 5 weeks ago
  10 mork[Power User]
Yes I agree. It is very ironic that the pirates may have inadvertently prevented it from happening.

I find it weird that MSM isn't reporting more about this. If the dirty bomb story is true I suppose there is some motivation to avoid turning the situation into a pressure cooker lest they hit the button where it sits.
posted 5 weeks ago

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