Created Sat 27th Sep 2008 5:28pm PST by 
ratel
ratel 
Will the NDP match or beat the Liberals in a major national poll before election day in Canada?
Settled as No
After the poll mentioned in the clarification, which didn't count for this question, there have been no polls reporting a tie or NDP lead.
Background:
Background: This was an interesting question for the Green vs. NDP, but I didn't think we'd really get to see this one. Its becoming quite possible though with the current election dynamics. So, will the NDP poll higher than the Liberals across the whole country at any point? They already are in BC.
Initial probability (yes): 40%
Category Editor Note: As some of you may be aware, there was an Angus Reid poll for The Toronto Star that came out recently showing the NDP tied with the Liberals at 21%. It was released several hours before this question was published, and the question creator was not aware of it. Because of the timing, this poll cannot be counted for the purpose of settling this question.
So we're looking for the next poll that meets the question's conditions, if such a poll result occurs.
Initial probability (yes): 40%
Category Editor Note: As some of you may be aware, there was an Angus Reid poll for The Toronto Star that came out recently showing the NDP tied with the Liberals at 21%. It was released several hours before this question was published, and the question creator was not aware of it. Because of the timing, this poll cannot be counted for the purpose of settling this question.
So we're looking for the next poll that meets the question's conditions, if such a poll result occurs.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. This url (<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/09/10/f-polls.html">http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/09/10/f-polls.html<;/a>) is a good place to look. Any major poll is acceptable, a non-exhaustive list would be Harris-Decima, ekos, or any national newspaper or tv network. Question to be settled yes if the NDP equal or beat the national support level of the Liberals.
Forecast history %
| Yes |
| |||
| No |
|
Settled as No on Wed 15th Oct 2008 9:37am PST
- Activity: H$30,069 |
- Predictions: 41 |
Comments: 2
Suspend date: Sun 12th Oct 2008 10:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2008 9:37am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 12th Oct 2008 10:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%
Action history:
Created Sat 27th Sep 2008 5:28pm PST by ratel
ratel
Changed Question text Sat 27th Sep 2008 5:31pm PST by ratel: show details
ratel: show details ... Will
the
... Green
PartyNDP
match
or
beat
the
... NDPLiberals
in
a
major
national
poll
before
election
day?
Changed Description Sat 27th Sep 2008 5:31pm PST by ratel: show details
ratel: show details ... ... Ok,
this
one
may
be
a
long
shot,This
was
an
interesting
question
for
the
Green
vs.
NDP,
but
I
didn't
think
we'd
really
get
to
see
this
one.
Its
becoming
quite
possible
though
with
the
current
election
dynamics.
So,
will
the
Greens
and
NDP
are
growing
in
support
each
time
a
poll
... comes
out.
Will
any
major
poll
beforehigher
than
the
... election
putLiberals
across
the
... Green
party's
overall
support
above
the
NDP?whole
country
at
any
point?
They
already
are
in
BC.
<br/>
Initial
probability
... :
5%(yes):
40%
Changed Settlement info Mon 29th Sep 2008 12:05pm PST by 
infernalmachine![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user")
: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... or
tv
network.
Question
to
be
settled
yes
if
the
... Green'sNDP
equal
or
beat
the
national
support
level
of
the
... conservatives.Liberals.
Unsuspended Mon 29th Sep 2008 9:42pm PST by infernalmachine: This poll http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/tories_near_majority_grits_and_ndp_tied_in_canada/ was released a few hours before the question was created. It had them tied. But it doesn't count. No subsequent polls (so far) have the NDP tied or leading the Liberals. So question is re-opened. (Sorry for the mix-up.)
infernalmachine: This poll http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/tories_near_majority_grits_and_ndp_tied_in_canada/ was released a few hours before the question was created. It had them tied. But it doesn't count. No subsequent polls (so far) have the NDP tied or leading the Liberals. So question is re-opened. (Sorry for the mix-up.)
Changed Description Tue 30th Sep 2008 7:01pm PST by infernalmachine: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... point?
They
already
are
in
BC.
<br/>
Initial
probability
(yes):
... 40%40%<br/>
<br/>
<b>Category
Editor
Note:</b>
As
some
of
you
may
be
aware,
there
was
an
<a
href="http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/tories_near_majority_grits_and_ndp_tied_in_canada/">Angus
Reid
poll</a>
for
The
Toronto
Star
that
came
out
recently
showing
the
NDP
tied
with
the
Liberals
at
21%.
It
was
released
several
hours
before
this
question
was
published,
and
the
question
creator
was
not
aware
of
it.
Because
of
the
timing,
this
poll
cannot
be
counted
for
the
purpose
of
settling
this
question.<br/>
<br/>
So
we're
looking
for
the
<i>next</i>
poll
that
meets
the
question's
conditions,
if
such
a
poll
result
occurs.
Changed Question text Fri 3rd Oct 2008 7:43pm PST by infernalmachine: ... national poll before election day in Canada?
infernalmachine: ... national poll before election day in Canada?
Changed Settlement info Fri 3rd Oct 2008 7:43pm PST by infernalmachine: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... source. This url (<a href='="http://www.cbc.ca/news/ ... /09/10/f-polls.html'>">http://www.cbc.ca/news/
Changed Settlement info Sat 11th Oct 2008 8:40am PST by infernalmachine: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... mainstream news source. This url (<(<a href="<a href="http://www.cbc. ... 09/10/f-polls.html</a>"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/09/10/f-polls.html<">http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/09/10/f-polls.html<</a>;/a>) is a good place
Suspended Sun 12th Oct 2008 10:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'No' Wed 15th Oct 2008 9:37am PST by infernalmachine: After the poll mentioned in the clarification, which didn't count for this question, there have been no polls reporting a tie or NDP lead.
infernalmachine: After the poll mentioned in the clarification, which didn't count for this question, there have been no polls reporting a tie or NDP lead. 
Suspend date: Sun 12th Oct 2008 10:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2008 9:37am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 12th Oct 2008 10:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (41)
rmpdr
predicted No (H$100 at 78%)
predicted No (H$100 at 78%)
storekeeperathscm
predicted No (H$100 at 74%)Comments (2)
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