
Will the NDP match or beat the Liberals in a major national poll before election day in Canada?
After the poll mentioned in the clarification, which didn't count for this question, there have been no polls reporting a tie or NDP lead.
Background:>
Initial probability (yes): 40%
Category Editor Note: As some of you may be aware, there was an Angus Reid poll for The Toronto Star that came out recently showing the NDP tied with the Liberals at 21%. It was released several hours before this question was published, and the question creator was not aware of it. Because of the timing, this poll cannot be counted for the purpose of settling this question.
So we're looking for the next poll that meets the question's conditions, if such a poll result occurs.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source. This url (<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/09/10/f-polls.html">http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2008/09/10/f-polls.html</a>) is a good place to look. Any major poll is acceptable, a non-exhaustive list would be Harris-Decima, ekos, or any national newspaper or tv network. Question to be settled yes if the NDP equal or beat the national support level of the Liberals.
Settled
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Yes |
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No |
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Suspend date: Sun 12th Oct 11:59pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 10:37am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 12th Oct 11:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%
Action history:
Suspend date: Sun 12th Oct 11:59pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 10:37am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 12th Oct 11:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (41)
41 predictions
Comments (2)
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