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Which Poll will be the most accurate?

Settled as Rasmussen Tracking

There's dozen's of polls on who's winning the Presidential race. Which poll will be the most accurate? We are looking for the most accurate of the ones listed below. The link below will show you the results of each poll all on the same page. If the canidate wins by say 4.3% then the poll/polls with 4% will win. If the canidate wins by say 4.5% then the poll/polls with 5% wins. Undecided voter data will NOT count. This will suspend on November 3rd. It will be settled after the election results are knowin. On November 3rd i'll screen capture the results and send them to the admin. I'll also post them in the comments section so all will know the numbers being used to decide this. This will avoid using any poll data released after the suspension time to avoid any headaches. You can follow the polls as you see fit by clicking on the first link below.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/ <----Use that link to check the polls.

Below is the info i could find on polls from the 2000 and 2004 election.


2004 polls

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

http://www.2004dnc.com/polls.htm

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

2000 polls

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/03/10/poll.cnn/index.html

http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/20

http://www.templejc.edu/dept/Govt/Feagin/Vote2000.htm#National%20Tracking%20Polls


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Gallup Tracking
6%
Rasmussen Tracking
13%
CBS News/NY Times
13%
Fox News
18%
Marist
10%
Two or more have same results
40%
Activity: H$16,824
Settled as Rasmussen Tracking on Thu 6th Nov 7:59pm PST

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 7pm PST Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 7:59pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 7pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Gallup Tracking: 10%, Rasmussen Tracking: 10%, CBS News/NY Times: 10%, Fox News: 10%, Marist: 10%, Two or more have same results: 50%

Action history:

Created Sat 27th Sep 8:55pm PDT by dieseldog
Changed Suspend date Sat 27th Sep 9:06pm PDT by dieseldog: was: "2008-11-03 08:05:00"
Suspended Mon 3rd Nov 7pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 6th Nov 7:56pm PST by dieseldog: looks like Rasmussen Tracking - Obama +6. thats going on how http://www.hubdub.com/m7955/What_will_the_popular_vote_margin_in_the_2008_Presidential_election_be_ was settled.
Settled as 'Rasmussen Tracking' Thu 6th Nov 7:59pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 7pm PST Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 7:59pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 7pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (52)

52 predictions

2 weeks ago
capecodviking predicted Two or more have same results (H$1 at 39%)
2 weeks ago
thehawkian predicted Gallup Tracking (H$20 at 6%)
2 weeks ago
robamichael predicted Fox News (H$200 at 17%)
2 weeks ago
robamichael predicted Two or more have same results (H$300 at 39%)
2 weeks ago
bobdevine predicted Rasmussen Tracking (H$50 at 14%)
more

Comments (9)

  1 bigken1
How does it settle if the most accurate is X, but Y and Z have the same results but are not the most accurate?
Not clear .. I think your intention is that X wins.. can you clarify?
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 coolkraft
how can you possibly determine which poll is the most accurate?
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 bigken1
Not sure exactly what dieseldog had in mind, but I assume that the results are compared with the election popular vote! ... Isn't that right?
posted 7 weeks ago
I like the last 3 polls on the first linked page.....I'd have to guess that those are the most accurate!!!
posted 7 weeks ago
I like gallop polls. However i think that polls are just research based guesses. So anyone could win if there lucky. Hell i could win if i was lucky! Heres my poll, after randomly interviewing people in my house the results are:
Barack Hussein Obama: 12%
John Sidney McCain: 23%
Ralph Nader: 32%
Cynthia McKinney: 33%
PS whats Ralph Naders middle name?
posted 7 weeks ago
  6 dieseldog
bigken has it right. after the election totals come in the poll who had the most accurate number wins. lets say obama gets 51.4% and mccain gets 49.8%. obama's gets rounded to 51, maccain's gets rounded to 50. obama therefore wins by 1%. then we look at the poll numbers at the time the question was suspended. the poll/polls that had obama up by 1% or closest to that would win. lets say fox had obama up by 4%...the rest had obama up by 6% or more..fox would win. when i made the question there was 3 polls that had obama up by 5...hence the reason for the last option. if obama wins and any of the polls had mccain up they would automactically lose. then we use the ones that had obama up to determine the winner. hope that clears things up. goodluck betters.
posted 7 weeks ago
  7 bigken1
hi dragon...
what is ralph naders middle name, as you say.
so his name is ralph what nader. :)
posted 6 weeks ago
  8 bigken1
ps.. all the polls work by taking specific people.. hopefully they choose more independent people than all in
the same household... this is the important aspect... getting a good sample...
posted 6 weeks ago
  9 dieseldog
Below are the numbers taken from Real Clear Politics at 8:49pm EST. I sent the admin the screen capture and the page. If for some reason he don't agree with these numbers, he can delete this comment and post his numbers. Goodluck betters.

Gallup Tracking - Obama +11

Rasmussen Tracking - Obama +6

CBS News/NY Times - Obama +11

Fox News - Obama +7

Marist - Obama +9
posted 2 weeks ago

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