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Where will Crude Oil end up DEC. 31st 2008?

Current forecast: Below $75 (89% chance6%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Below $75 with a probability of 89% (up 6% in last 1 day)

Oil seems to be oscillating. Where will it end up by Dec 31st 2008.

Question suspends on 12/24/08.

Settlement basis clarified 11/11/08
Price is based on Crude Oil Lt Sweet Nymex)

http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=3343724


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Crude Oil Lt Sweet Nymex)

http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=3343724

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Make your prediction!

Above $200
0%
Between $175 and $200
0%
Between $150 and $175
0%
Between $125 and $150
1%
Between $100 and $125
2%
Between $75 and $100
7%
Below $75
89%
Activity: H$55,503
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Above $200: 5%, Between $175 and $200: 14%, Between $150 and $175: 15%, Between $125 and $150: 30%, Between $100 and $125: 30%, Between $75 and $100: 5%, Below $75: 1%

Action history:

Created Sun 28th Sep 7:51am PDT by meetglad
Changed Suspend date Sat 18th Oct 6:44am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-01-01 23:59:00"

Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (165)

165 predictions

2 hours ago
kurtosis predicted Below $75 (H$100 at 89%)
5 hours ago
opie predicted Below $75 (H$50 at 89%)
14 hours ago
rogerkni predicted Between $75 and $100 (H$200 at 12%)
16 hours ago
fundo predicted Below $75 (H$400 at 86%)
1 day ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted Below $75 (H$2,000 at 83%)
more

Comments (4)

  1 meetglad
What a dramatic shift in oil prices. 147 dollars to mere 70 dollars. If oil stays below 75 dollars by Dec 31st 2008, deep recession is ahead.
posted 4 weeks ago
What figure are you going to use to settle this question? Are you using "Brent Crude Spot Price" as the number? Meetglad, just wanted to ask you so there would be no confusion when the settlement is done. Thanks...Looking forward to your answer.
posted 1 week ago
  3 meetglad
here u go....

Crude Oil Lt Sweet Electronic (Nymex)

http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=3343724
posted 1 week ago
  4 bayoubear[Admin]
Thanks for clarifying...I think we assume Light, Sweet unless specified as Brent, but even so, it should be specified. I'll add it to the background and settlement details.
posted 1 week ago

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