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Created Sun 28th Sep 2008 6:51am PST by meetglad

Where will Crude Oil end up DEC. 31st 2008?

Settled as Below $75

Crude oil closed below $45 on 12/31/08

Background:

Background: Oil seems to be oscillating. Where will it end up by Dec 31st 2008.

Question suspends on 12/24/08.

Settlement basis clarified 11/11/08
Price is based on Crude Oil Lt Sweet Nymex)

http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=3343724

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Crude Oil Lt Sweet Nymex)

http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=3343724

 
Forecast history %
Above $200
0%
Between $175 and $200
0%
Between $150 and $175
0%
Between $125 and $150
0%
Between $100 and $125
1%
Between $75 and $100
1%
Below $75
98%
Settled as Below $75 on Thu 1st Jan 10:16am PST

Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 1st Jan 10:16am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 24th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Above $200: 5%, Between $175 and $200: 14%, Between $150 and $175: 15%, Between $125 and $150: 30%, Between $100 and $125: 30%, Between $75 and $100: 5%, Below $75: 1%

Action history:

Created Sun 28th Sep 2008 6:51am PST by meetglad
Changed Suspend date Sat 18th Oct 2008 5:44am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-01-01 23:59:00"
Changed Description Sat 18th Oct 2008 5:44am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: show details
... up by Dec 31st 2008. <br/> <br/> Question suspends on 12/24/08.
Changed Description Tue 11th Nov 2008 5:28am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: show details
... suspends on 12/24/08. <br/> <br/> Price is based on Crude Oil Lt Sweet Nymex) <br/> <br/> http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=3343724
Changed Description Tue 11th Nov 2008 5:30am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: show details
... on 12/24/08. <br/> <br/> <b>Settlement basis clarified 11/11/08</b> <br/> Price is based on
Changed Settlement info Tue 11th Nov 2008 5:30am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: show details
... a major mainstream news source. <br/> <br/> Crude Oil Lt Sweet Nymex) <br/> <br/> <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=3343724">http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=3343724</a>
Suspended Wed 24th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 1st Jan 7:02am PST by sharon91977: http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=3343724

$44.60 so settles as "below $75"
Settlement requested Thu 1st Jan 9:22am PST by horsefeathers: 2008 over
Settled as 'Below $75' Thu 1st Jan 10:16am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Crude oil closed below $45 on 12/31/08

Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 1st Jan 10:16am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 24th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (286)

47 weeks ago
horsefeathers predicted Between $75 and $100 (H$5 at 1%)
48 weeks ago
vtotter4 predicted Below $75 (H$10,000 at 97%)
48 weeks ago
drzinternet predicted Below $75 (H$1,000 at 95%)
48 weeks ago
rudreitz predicted Below $75 (H$5,000 at 92%)
49 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted Below $75 (H$2,000 at 90%)

Comments (4)

  1 meetglad
What a dramatic shift in oil prices. 147 dollars to mere 70 dollars. If oil stays below 75 dollars by Dec 31st 2008, deep recession is ahead.
posted 1 year ago
  2 buckeyetom
What figure are you going to use to settle this question? Are you using "Brent Crude Spot Price" as the number? Meetglad, just wanted to ask you so there would be no confusion when the settlement is done. Thanks...Looking forward to your answer.
posted 1 year ago
  3 meetglad
here u go....

Crude Oil Lt Sweet Electronic (Nymex)

http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=3343724
posted 1 year ago
  4 bayoubear[Admin]
Thanks for clarifying...I think we assume Light, Sweet unless specified as Brent, but even so, it should be specified. I'll add it to the background and settlement details.
posted 1 year ago

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