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Which Middle Eastern Country will be host to the next terrorist attack?

Current forecast: Lebanon (29% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Lebanon with a probability of 29% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Over the past weeks terrorist bombings and attacks have claimed many lives over swathes of the Middle East. Recently countries such as Syria which have been less prone to terrorist incidents have begun to be targeted. Some analysts point to the massive influx of Iraqi refugees into states such as Jordan and Syria as cause for the upsurge in activity. In the Syrian attack, the car bomb was close to the 'Sidi Kadad Intelligence Headquarters, which houses a special unit responsible for Palestinian security and intelligence matters.' which wouldn't usually be a target for terrorism

On the other hand Yemen and Lebanon which are prone to terrorist incidents have had continuing attacks due to long standing conflicts. Other countries such as Qatar, The UAE and Oman have been rather immune to terrorist activity. One of the fundamental reasons is probably due to the wealth influx in these states as well as a heavy clamp down on extremism (at least visibly).

So where will the next attack occur?


Settlement details: As reported by a CNN. The market refers to the states listed and only those listed. Iraq and Israel have been left out due to the high level of violence in those nations. If by 2009 no attacks have taken place the suspend date should be extended.

 
Forecast history, %
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Qatar, UAE, Oman
3%
Saudi Arabia
10%
Yemen
12%
Jordan
6%
Lebanon
29%
Syria
18%
Iran
6%
Egypt
15%
Activity: H$8,118
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Qatar, UAE, Oman: 5%, Saudi Arabia : 15%, Yemen: 15%, Jordan: 5%, Lebanon: 25%, Syria: 15%, Iran: 10%, Egypt: 10%

Action history:

Created Mon 29th Sep 2:08am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Changed Description Mon 29th Sep 2:37am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: show details
... <br/> So where will the next attack occur? <br/> <br/> ... <!-- Begin<?php<br/> #Begin code - Feedzilla's news ... widget --><br/> <script language="javascript" type="text/javascript" src="http://www.feedzilla.com/tools/stepbox_nc.asp?type=s&t=test&prov=news&cat=World%20news&cat2=Middle%20East&num_articles=5&show_summaries=No&show_sources=Yes&show_dates=Yes&title=undefined&keywords=&url=&headers_size=12pt&title_size=10pt&title_bold=Yes&font_size=10pt&font_family=Arial&text_alignment=Left&space=Yes&titlecolor=%23000000&fcolor=%23000000&desccolor=%23000000&sourcecolor=%23FF0000&datecolor=%23999999"></script><br/> <a title="Free news widgets" href="http://www.feedzilla.com/free_news_widgets.asp" style="font-size:10px;">News widgets</a> and <a title="Free RSS news feeds" href="http://www.feedzilla.com/rss.asp" style="font-size:10px;">RSS feeds</a> on <a title="News widgets and news feeds" href="http://www.feedzilla.com" style="font-size:10px;">Feedzilla.com</a><br/> <!-- Endwidget<br/> include ("http://www.FeedZilla.com/tools/steppatch_nc.asp?type=s&t=test&prov=news&cat=World%20news&cat2=Middle%20East&num_articles=5&show_summaries=No&show_sources=Yes&show_dates=Yes&title=undefined&keywords=&url=&headers_size=12pt&title_size=10pt&title_bold=Yes&font_size=10pt&font_family=Arial&text_alignment=Left&space=Yes&titlecolor=%23000000&fcolor=%23000000&desccolor=%23000000&sourcecolor=%23FF0000&datecolor=%23999999")<br/> #End code - Feedzilla's news ... widget-->widget<br/> ?>
Suspended Mon 29th Sep 12:40pm PDT by mork[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Mon 29th Sep 12:40pm PDT by mork[Power User]: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7641171.stm (market suspended)
Unsuspended Mon 29th Sep 8:58pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: This question was asked after the bombing in Lebanon, so the settlement request(s) regarding (Tripoli) Lebanon is denied. Question is re-opened.
Settlement requested Mon 27th Oct 11:13am PDT by buckeyetom: Hi Ryan-
Would this news article settle as a "yes" for Syria?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081027/wl_nm/us_iraq_syria_16;_ylt=AknosnWDQTi3P6851zyvq68UewgF

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (76)

76 predictions

1 week ago
wheatjerry predicted Syria (H$50 at 17%)
1 week ago
aland predicted Lebanon (H$100 at 29%)
2 weeks ago
simoncast predicted Yemen (H$50 at 12%)
5 weeks ago
youbet predicted Lebanon (H$100 at 32%)
6 weeks ago
swatjester predicted Yemen (H$20 at 13%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 chatarra
After placing my bets, I read this news story:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7641171.stm
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 curios
this was reported 54 Min's ago
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/world/middleeast/30lebanon.html
posted 7 weeks ago
Does this carry any weight?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081027/wl_nm/us_iraq_syria_16;_ylt=AknosnWDQTi3P6851zyvq68UewgF
posted 3 weeks ago

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