
Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?
Barack Obama has been projected to be the 44th President of the United States of America.
Background:>
This contract is also being traded on Intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets and News Futures. UK betting odds on the race can be found on Betfair and OddsChecker (to translate UK digital betting odds into percentages divide 1 by the current price. e.g. 1.43 translates into 1/1.43 = 70%).
Note: This is an actively traded market not a poll. The percentages are forecasts of the likelihood of that candidate winning, not their likely share of the vote. Research has shown that prediction markets are as accurate if not more so than polls [Ref: Wikipedia and Scientific American]
Note 2: This question replaces the older 'Who will be the next President of the US?' question which included candidates no longer in the race.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. The question will be decided by who becomes the next President in 2009. It can be settled early if it is deemed no extraordinary situation occurs, 2000 election case in point. If one does occur than the market is decided by who enters the oval office in 2009.
| John McCain |
| |||
| Barack Obama |
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- Activity: H$1,143,867 |
- Predictions: 2567 |
Comments: 136
Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 8:10pm PST
Initial likelihoods: John McCain: 34%, Barack Obama: 66%
Action history:
Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 8:10pm PST details
Predictions (2567)
Comments (136)
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http://www.amazon.com/Put-Your-Party-on-Your-Face/meters/A2JPIXA6Y3NESG/
Clearly a duplicate
Jk about the 'haa haa' :-)
jk, but suriuslee
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_win_the_US_Presidential_Election_in_2008_747
A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won't cross the street to vote in a national election.
Bill Vaughan
this cant be true surley? steady only a stir.
http://www.reuters.com/article/oddlyEnoughNews/idUSTRE49F4TZ20081016
Erin go bragh!
just let it slide, most comments are made with only a grain of seriousness.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-08-14-military-donations_N.htm
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080814/military_donations.html
@deelilley thats amazing! However i guess that they start to go a little bit crazy after they enlist. War can do that to you! I already did my time of the US. Although my experience was fairly boring because when i signed on there was no war. I kept waiting and waiting. I even sent a threating letter to the leader of Iran signed Obama however he just kept laughing and laughing! Probably picturing Obama trying to lead the armed forces.
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_be_the_next_President_of_the_US_2047
Current forecast: Barack Obama (90% chance 27% down)"
so presumably yesterday he had already won the election with a chance of 117% ? :)
and I predicted this on www.judyhevenly.com
February 9, 2008. I am a South African by birth, and
as a child, living in Africa we were segregated one race
from another, so this will be a historical day,
for not only for South Africans, but globally.
http://www.wftv.com/video/17790025/index.html
I am astonished how so many people think getting the money back is so called 'socialism'. Can't we realize we've been robbed by the corporate bigwigs, lobbyists and politicians!
Whose income has grown 10 fold the last 8 years?... Sure wasn't mine!...As if they needed it.
They get taxed to the point that they pay for the majority of taxes in our country and you say they robbed us? The better they do, the better we all do. When they can make things cheaper, we can buy them cheaper. When they sell stuff, our economy booms. Think about the big picture at least a little bit.
The "I want it now!" mentality needs to be rethought.
As for "the more they make, the more we make," even George Bush I called that voodoo economics. It doesn't work that way. When a millionaire makes and extra million, he sticks it in a bank. Huge corporations do not up payroll for the guy who cleans the toilets when profits go up. Never in my life have I heard a boss say, "you know Joe, business is pretty good this year. I'm going to give you a raise."
The top 1% pays 32% of the taxes.
The top 5% pays 51.4%.
The top 10% of high income earners, pay 63.5%.
The top 20% of income earners pays 78% of all federal income taxes.
I think you should be happy being part of the 80% that pays only 20% of their dues here. I know I am outraged that I'm part of that 80%.
@jsevigny
You underline a very important concept jsevigny. "This is not socialism. It's social responsibility." Do you realize how important that statement is? Socialism requires ridding the world of social responsibility and placing it all on some unreal entity known as the government. The further we take responsibility away from the citizens of a society, the more they lose the concept that it is actually their responsibility to do so. Socialism is failing everywhere and America is proof that free markets and capitalism are the most efficient tools of progress.
When a successful firm makes an extra million, they do not put it in the bank (and even if they do that million served us all, and I'll let you know why). The firm uses the resources to invest in capital so that it can make 2 million next year. This allows that firm to push their product at a cheaper price. I don't need to give an example here, it is the story of every successful company and one of the first things you learn in economics.
Even if that company saves that money for a little while, that million dollars will contribute the GDP in time. The services and goods that were given for the million dollars becomes part of the GDP. When the million dollars is spent, it becomes part of the chain of free markets.
Wages DO increase as companies do better, but more importantly the relative price level goes down as companies continue to succeed. When Walmart offers you a product for much cheaper than the next company, your wage rate becomes more valuable. You don't even have to make more and yet your can buy more. This is a key point to explaining why success of firms are vital to the success of households.
------------------------------
plus my room mate says ur rong
that's a joke guys. just trying to keep our conversation friendly :)
Here is one article about amounts of taxes that each income level pays
http://www.american.com/archive/2007/november-december-magazine-contents/guess-who-really-pays-the-taxes
There is a huge difference between having the privilege to help someone who needs it, and being told by the government how much money to hand over to them or face consequences! That one of the fastest ways to lose our liberties - no two ways about it.
The top 1 percent of taxpayers paid 33.7 percent of all individual income taxes in 2002. This group of taxpayers has paid more than 30 percent of individual income taxes since 1995. Moreover, since 1990 this group’s tax share has grown faster than their income share.
http://www.american.com/archive/2007/november-december-magazine-contents/guess-who-really-pays-the-taxes
http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/incometaxandtheirs/a/whopaysmost.htm
http://74.6.239.67/search/cache?ei=UTF-8&p=who+pays+the+most+taxes&fr=ush1-mail&u=www.treas.gov/press/releases/reports/factsheetwhopaysmostindividualincometaxes.update.pdf&w=pays+pay+most+taxes+tax+taxed&d=XpT4OULURsBt&icp=1&.intl=us
“Heavens no, Joe!”, Barry assured him, continuing, “It is merely prudent that your pile of food, which is much larger than you need, trust me on this, is flattened out and spread around, what about the the pill bugs and the aphids who don’t have the luxury of your good fortune? Your food pile is simply to steep and too highly piled, a bug could easily be injured if there was a fall, your pile needs to be flattened out, for the good of everyone.”
Joe returned to his digs and some fellow ants inquired of him, “Joe, we heard the lyrical sound of the grasshopper outside, what news does he bring?”
Joe, a common ant with common ways returned to the surface with his fellow ants to get a clarification on the mysterious plans of the grasshopper but was met instead by a battalion of crickets and a cartel of chameleons. Immediately a cacophony of voices rang out. Barry motioned for silence and a hush fell over the assembled pests.
Shimmering in a plumage of constantly changing colors a large chameleon climbed upon a pile of acorn husks and with eyes independently swiveling addressed the masses. “Welcome fellow ants! What a glorious day this is! For this Fall we select our Alpha insect and what could be more obvious? ... the charming dapperness of Barry the Grasshopper or that silly old, boring, stale has-been rhinoceros beetle, John McGrain? Sure, we know that he was held in a gourd by the Asian fruit flies for years while defending us, but that was a LONG time ago, now is the time for Change! Pick Barry to lead us!”
One small ant waived his antenna hoping to catch one of the eyes of the chameleon with a question but his query was drowned out by the mesmerizing hum of the crickets cooing, Barry Chang-Chang, Very Chang-Chang, Barry Chang-Chang.
The crickets took a break and Barry continued, “Little ants, you need to trust me, we know better than you, we grasshoppers fly high, we see the entire panorama of the meadow, we see things you ants don’t see here on the ground, do not let yourselves be troubled worrying about your stores, we will attend to them for you, all you need to know is that your pile of food will be just as high as ever, in fact higher and that it will be spread around for the good of the entire community, you merely need to stop piling your food by the poppies and instead turn left towards the bluebonnets and place your food at our feet, we’ll make sure that you remain warm and happy.
To be continued....
That reminds me of something going on in U.S. politics right now! :-)
Notice what he says about redistribution and "the court wasn't radical enough"!
If only it were that easy!
such fascinating perspectives that you offer! Pray tell us, why do so many well to do sick folks come to the world class medical facilities in Houston, or the Mayo Clinic or any of a number of other world class medical facilities in this country, from other countries for treatment? Better, which would be the country that you would showcase as having a superior medical arrangement, I'm sure you can name several, I'm interested in the one that you admire most. I will not argue you on the education assessment, I agree that it is dire, what I can't agree to though is that an increase in taxes/bonds/etc. *automatically* and irrefutably will be the cure and I'm assuming that you are making a comparison between the United States and perhaps Europe with regard to public transportation, could it be that the distances between major cities are not conducive to train service? Perhaps a massive land grab, public domain style will be in order to commit billions to new rail lines? Do we not have a plethora of low fare air carriers that allow frequent trips between business centers that are equivalent distances as between entire countries in Europe? Please showcase for us an example of a society that vastly improved their quality of life with an obvious linkage to a spike in taxes. I look forward to your comments and thank you for your frequent participation on this site.
Seriously!
btw... lest you think that I'm unread and hard headed, I DO think that other countries are making significant advancements in the field of health care, an excellent example is innovative system that Ruben Torel has launched in Bangkok....
http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/125/medical-leave.html
John
www.thevoiceoftexas.org
@ valornhonor Sure, *some* people jet in to the Mayo, but huge numbers of Americans are leaving the country for their own health care. To India, for example, for a heart-valve replacement.
"...outsourcing health care is becoming a big business for Americans, too. Over the past couple of years, American companies have become middlemen between American consumers and hospitals overseas. These companies arrange everything for American consumers who want to go overseas for their healthcare. They negotiate pricing with hospitals, book flights and hotel rooms, and even set up sightseeing tours for their American customers. According to the article, these companies are even cheap to operate. Apparently, anyone can run a medical tourism business. Currently, there are no licensing requirements either in the United States or abroad and cheap access to the Internet helps keep operating costs low." http://tinyurl.com/5frbyz
'course, outsourcing *everything* has its drawbacks...
But while the trend continues, and raises important questions about why so many Americans can't afford health care at home, a new report points out that the largest segment of medical travelers are headed stateside. And, experts say, they're also growing in numbers.
http://www.forbes.com/2008/05/25/health-hospitals-care-forbeslife-cx_avd_outsourcing08_0529healthoutsourcing.html
That is the beauty of freedom :-)
This is why the NRA keeps telling people that Obama talks out of both sides of his mouth. On one hand, he says, “I have always believed that the Second Amendment protects the right of individuals to bear arms,” while on the other he supports a complete ban on the arms they would bear.
Proving he meant it when he said states, cities, and municipalities should be able to regulate and restrict the Second Amendment, Obama supported these unconstitutional bans when a 2003 case in Wilmette, Ill. provided him the opportunity to stand up for the “individual right” he also claims to support.
Barack Obama opposed laws that would allow handguns for self defense - four seperate times.
He supported a proposal to ban gun stores within 5 miles of a school or park (which is tantamount to banning gun stores period); he supported H.B. 2579, which prohibited law-abiding individuals from purchasing more than one gun a month; he opposed laws that permitted law-abiding citizens to carry firearms for self-defense (i.e., he opposed concealed carry permits); he supported a ban on “junk guns” (cheaper guns that poor people could actually afford to buy and use for self defense); and he voted not to inform gun owners when the state of Illinois did records searches on them (S.B. 1936).
He supports the reintroduction of the assault weapons ban; he favors a ban on high capacity magazines; he voted with Ted Kennedy on ammunition bans (that included hunting ammunition); and most troubling of all, he voted against the confirmation of Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=29208
Tuesday afternoon the camera saw this: A nine-year-old-year-old neighbor trotted up with an Obama-Biden sign in his hand, grabbed a handful of volts as he touched the McCain-Palin sign, then quickly ran away.
http://www.newsobserver.com/114/story/1273910.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyDqQW2adPk
"it is necessary for Democrats to get some backbone, give as good as they get, brook no compromise, drive out Democrats who are interested in “appeasing” the right wing, and enforce a more clearly progressive agenda."
http://sweetness-light.com/archive/barack-obamas-letter-to-the-daily-kos
That is a one way street to the left...
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/oct/31/washington-times-kicked-obama-plane-finale/
http://www.renewamerica.us/columns/janak/081031
http://tinyurl.com/65l3us
do you really think you can impress any Hubdubber by campaigning for McCain here all around?
I'm wondering what you will do IF Obama is elected in the end ... despite all your efforts here ...
I can't speak for Notable, but IF Obama wins, life will go on. The people will oppose him if he tries to enact radical left wing redistribution policies. If BHO takes us back to the '70s, it won't be pleasant, but we will eventually recover. A BHO presidency would usher in another 1994 in 2010. He could do a lot of damage in 2 years, but a repeat of 1994 would render him impotent for his last 2-6 years. Universal health care (socialism, as I call it) under Billary was, in my opinion, largely responsible for 1994... In the long run a BHO win, while painful in the short run, could be the best thing to happen for the conservative movement.
Conservatives don't have a candidate this time around. The choice is between a moderate and an extreme left wing socialist. Whoever wins, conservatives will have to rebuild the Republican party and bring it back to it's conservative roots.
If Obama wins... what will I do? I will be bummed for a day, and then I'll have fun watching the circus that is sure to ensue... the most entertaining aspect will be the MSM blaming any and all BHO failures/setbacks on the minority party (Republicans). If Democrats had 99% control they would still blame their failures on the opposition. Listen closely to the current Democrats that control D.C. - they love the blame game.
I trust our system of checks and balances will protect us in the future as it has in the past.
Gridlock, baby! Gridlock and bipartisanship... slow those meddlers down!!!
f_o_f
I really think your comment was the most honest, realistic, less negative, and most relaxed I read the last few days. this is what it will be like: not so much a change after all - regardless who will win the election. the US will stay the US (in both negative but also the positive ways) - no doubt about it.
If Obama is elected, life will go on. He will raise taxes on firms which is the exact move Hoover pulled to cause the last Depression. This recession may very well become a Depression if Obama is elected. He may even be able to drag out the blame for two terms the way FDR did. We will see a "New New Deal" and we will see a continuation of our current LARGEST EXPANSION OF GOVERNMENT since the 1930's. 2016 may be the true test for America. GOP will most likely have both floors by then and Ronald Reagan 2 will be on the sideline.
Pessimistic? You bet. This is an extreme, but I still think its possible. What I would gain out of it all is the fact that America would once again teach itself a lesson. Most ironically (or maybe it just makes sense) this would happen when our Americans who lived through it all before will be dwindling in numbers.
If McCain is elected... well I won't be all that happy either. We will do a lot better, but the truth is America will most likely keep a trend to the left because of it.
Hubdub is a prediction site. No one will be impressed if the predictions are wrong. It is important to provide all the data, instead of having an Obama echo chamber here. Does anyone think that Barack will win 93% of the vote? I personally doubt that he will win at all, but that is what the odds are on this question. We need both sides, and that is what I am aiming for.
providing all the data? thanks for keeping the balance by providing all that data which is intended to denigrate in a contemptuous way. and none of the data which could be interpreted in a negative way for McCain.
Obviously, because people are betting for Obama, the chances that he will win are around 93%. I think most of the Hubdub players know that this is not the prediction of the resulting percentages but the prediction of who will win.
I agree with you that I personally am not so sure that Obama will win, as you can see, my stakes are on McCain right now (already loosing because I was too early)
I'm not sure what you're trying to say, but McCain voters are not brushing off the economic trouble whatsoever. They understand that it can be solved and that isn't with higher taxes and wasted money.
(http://www.nationalpriorities.org/costofwar_home)
One man's treasure, is another man's trash,
One man's garbage, is another man's meat;
The voice that's worth "baloney" to coolkraft,
Sounds like a sizzling "Rib Eye Steak" to me ;-)
Dedicated to the thoughtful and logical comments of thevoiceoftexas_org
Don't mess with Texas!
@ thevoiceoftexas_org
Thank you for your service!
This settled too early... count every vote!!!
Palin 2012
ow!
Def a congrats to Obama, but I still think it spells trouble
Whoo hooooo!!!
Check out comment #113... I've been slammmmed by the nicest person on hubdub!!!
Hee hee... awesome comeback response to my comment #112, Jeni!!!
Congratulations, and Thank You America!
So before you start preaching get yourself acquainted with the facts, though in all honesty I wouldn't expect much from someone who considers themselves the voice of a piece of land that was forcefully & brutally stolen from Mexico. I find it constantly bemusing how the U.S. bitch about Mexicans 'illegally' attempting to cross a border into a place that rightfully belongs to Mexico.
The U.S. & U.K. governments are & always have been the worlds most brutal & deadly 'terrorists' & I am nothing short of ashamed to be associated with them. It's about time that the western world opened it's eyes & realized that they are being ruled by nothing better than a bunch of fascist dictators disguising themselves under the false banner of democracy.
One can only hope that Obama is the beginning of the end of that but, I fear that he like so many before him, is just a puppet figurehead being controlled by the strings held by the worlds money men. I honestly hope that isn't the case but should it turn out to be that way then it is doubtless time for us, the people, to rise up & rightfully reclaim these lands that our enlightened forefathers strove so hard to make great through hard graft & the striving for peace between all peoples.
God bless the common man.
I agree with F_O_F - you could not be informed and serious, so you must have a twisted sense of humor. He he he he.
Google search of Saddam's Death count turned up the following info:
# Iraq, Saddam Hussein (1979-2003): 300,000
* Human Rights Watch: "twenty-five years of Ba`th Party rule ... murdered or 'disappeared' some quarter of a million Iraqis" [http://www.hrw.org/wr2k4/3.htm]
* 8/9 Dec. 2003 AP: Total murders
o New survey estimates 61,000 residents of Baghdad executed by Saddam.
o US Government estimates a total of 300,000 murders
+ 180,000 Kurds k. in Anfal
+ 60,000 Shiites in 1991
+ 50,000 misc. others executed
o "Human rights officials" est.: 500,000
o Iraqi politicians: over a million
* [These don't include the million or so dead in the Iran-Iraq War.]
In comparison - IBC (Iraq Body Count) shows the following estimate:
http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/
Documented civilian deaths from violence
88,947 - 97,084
Saddam kept the peace by running a dictatorship. Now the citizens of Iraq can vote in elections. And you would advocate a return to the oppressive rule of Saddam. Incredible!
Better national health service - Considering that we do not have a national health service - yet, then I guess you are right. But I have never heard of anyone going to Saddam's Iraq because of the superior medical service available there.
Better schooling - you may be right - Our public school system is operated by and for the teachers union, instead of being for the students and future leaders of our country.
That is an interesting thought. There certainly is a case for claiming there is generally malice aforethought, and motives are usually obvious. The life taken is always inocent too.
Laws and morals are two separate things, and the President elect has tried to separate them even further by arguing (multiple times) in favor of infantacide, for instance.
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