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Will Ukraine lose Crimea to Russia by the end of 2009?

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Background:

Background: Crimea is located on the northern coast of the Black Sea and an autonomous republic of Ukraine. Most of its citizens however tend to Russia instead of the Ukraine. But Ukraine don't want to lose control of the autonomous republic.

The isle is an important strategic place in the Black Sea. The Russian navy is based in various harbors on Crimea, but have to relocate to Russian territory in 2017.

The tension between Ukraine and Russia is intensified by spreading Russian passports to the citizens of Crimea by Russia. Ukraine itself want to become part of the European Union.

Two viewpoints on the situation: LA Times and Russia Today

Category Editor Clarification: To settle as Yes, the government of Crimea must announce itself to be either a province of Russia or an autonomous republic under Russia. (It is not required that Ukraine nor the EU or UN agree.)

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
4%
No
96%
Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Suspend date: Thu 1st Oct 1:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Wed 1st Oct 2008 4:09am PST by romanofski
Suspended Wed 1st Oct 2008 5:54am PST by infernalmachine[Power User]: suspended pending clarification
Unsuspended Wed 1st Oct 2008 11:24pm PST by infernalmachine[Power User]: Clarifications added. Question re-opened.
Suspended Thu 1st Oct 1:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Suspend date: Thu 1st Oct 1:59pm PST details

 

Predictions (62)

5 weeks ago
rhetto1025 predicted No (H$20 at 96%)
5 weeks ago
joffi predicted No (H$1,000 at 95%)
8 weeks ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted No (H$10,000 at 88%)
13 weeks ago
snipergirl predicted No (H$300 at 85%)
17 weeks ago
frogchop predicted No (H$500 at 63%)

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