Created Wed 1st Oct 5:09am PDT by 
romanofski
All questions » World » Europe » romanofski 
Will Ukraine lose Crimea to Russia by the end of 2009?
Current forecast: 48% chance 
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 48% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)
Crimea is located on the northern coast of the Black Sea and an autonomous republic of Ukraine. Most of its citizens however tend to Russia instead of the Ukraine. But Ukraine don't want to lose control of the autonomous republic.
The isle is an important strategic place in the Black Sea. The Russian navy is based in various harbors on Crimea, but have to relocate to Russian territory in 2017.
The tension between Ukraine and Russia is intensified by spreading Russian passports to the citizens of Crimea by Russia. Ukraine itself want to become part of the European Union.
Two viewpoints on the situation: LA Times and Russia Today
Category Editor Clarification: To settle as Yes, the government of Crimea must announce itself to be either a province of Russia or an autonomous republic under Russia. (It is not required that Ukraine nor the EU or UN agree.)
The isle is an important strategic place in the Black Sea. The Russian navy is based in various harbors on Crimea, but have to relocate to Russian territory in 2017.
The tension between Ukraine and Russia is intensified by spreading Russian passports to the citizens of Crimea by Russia. Ukraine itself want to become part of the European Union.
Two viewpoints on the situation: LA Times and Russia Today
Category Editor Clarification: To settle as Yes, the government of Crimea must announce itself to be either a province of Russia or an autonomous republic under Russia. (It is not required that Ukraine nor the EU or UN agree.)
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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Activity: H$1,061
Question suspends in 44 weeks
Suspend date: Thu 1st Oct 2009 2:59pm PDT (44 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Action history:
Created Wed 1st Oct 5:09am PDT by romanofski
romanofski
Suspended Wed 1st Oct 6:54am PDT by 
infernalmachine![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: suspended pending clarification
infernalmachine: suspended pending clarification
Changed Question text Thu 2nd Oct 12:05am PDT by infernalmachine: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... Will
... Ukraina
looseUkraine
lose
Crimea
to
... Russland
inRussia
by
the
end
of
2009?
Changed Description Thu 2nd Oct 12:05am PDT by infernalmachine: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... Russia
instead
of
the
Ukraine.
But
Ukraine
don't
want
to
... looselose
control
of
the
autonomous
... republic.
<br/>republic.<br/>
<br/>
The
isle
is
an
important
strategic
place
in
the
... black
sea.Black
Sea.
The
Russian
navy
is
based
... onin
various
harbors
on
Crimea,
but
have
to
relocate
to
Russian
... Russia.
Ukraine
itself
want
to
become
part
of
the
European
... Union.Union.<br/>
<br/>
<b>Category
Editor
Clarification:</b>
To
settle
as
Yes,
Crimea
must
Changed Description Thu 2nd Oct 12:16am PDT by infernalmachine: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... European
Union.<br/>
<br/>
<b>Category
Editor
Clarification:</b>
To
settle
as
Yes,
the
government
of
Crimea
must
announce
itself
to
be
either
a
province
of
Russia
or
an
autonomous
republic
under
Russia.
(It
is
not
required
that
Ukraine
nor
the
EU
or
UN
agree.)
Changed Description Thu 2nd Oct 12:23am PDT by infernalmachine: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... itself
want
to
become
part
of
the
European
Union.<br/>
<br/>
Two
viewpoints
on
the
situation:
<a
href="http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/europe/la-fg-sevastopol28-2008sep28,0,5001567.story?track=rss">LA
Times</a>
and
<a
href="http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/30961">Russia
Today</a><br/>
<b>Category
Editor
Clarification:</b>
To
settle
as
Yes,
the
government
of
Changed Description Thu 2nd Oct 12:23am PDT by infernalmachine: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... on
the
situation:
<a
href="http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/europe/la-fg-sevastopol28-2008sep28,0,5001567.story?track=rss">LA
Times</a>
and
<a
href="http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/30961">Russia
Today</a><br/>
<br/>
<b>Category
Editor
Clarification:</b>
To
settle
as
Yes,
the
government
of
Unsuspended Thu 2nd Oct 12:24am PDT by infernalmachine: Clarifications added. Question re-opened.
infernalmachine: Clarifications added. Question re-opened.
Changed Description Thu 2nd Oct 12:25am PDT by infernalmachine: show details
infernalmachine: show details ... Black
Sea
and
an
autonomous
republic
of
Ukraine.
Most
of
... it'sits
citizens
however
tend
to
Russia
instead
of
the
Ukraine.
But
Suspend date: Thu 1st Oct 2009 2:59pm PDT (44 weeks to go)
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score: 10
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