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If John McCain is elected president will David Petraeus be made Secretary of Defense?

Voided

Market Voided. This would break current law, as it is on the books today. It clearly states "A person may not be appointed as Secretary of Defense within 10 years after relief from active duty as a commissioned officer of a regular component of an armed force." (Title 10, § 113)

Background:

Background: Senator John McCain has constantly praised the work that Petraeus has done, will he be selected as Secretary of Defense?

Category Editor Notation
This market will suspend/settle based on who John McCain selects as his first Secretary of Defense. Market will be voided if John McCain doesn't win election.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
65%
No
35%
Voided Fri 3rd Oct 2008 11:42am PST

Suspend date: Sun 30th Nov 2008 3:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 65%

Action history:

Created Wed 1st Oct 2008 12:22pm PST by mccain08
Voided Fri 3rd Oct 2008 11:42am PST by destry[Admin]: Market Voided. This would break current law, as it is on the books today. It clearly states "A person may not be appointed as Secretary of Defense within 10 years after relief from active duty as a commissioned officer of a regular component of an armed force." (Title 10, § 113)

Suspend date: Sun 30th Nov 2008 3:59pm PST details

 

Predictions (27)

1 year ago
smorrow66 predicted No (H$100 at 48%)
1 year ago
jhouseholder predicted Yes (H$3 at 52%)
1 year ago
neuronexmachina predicted No (H$300 at 48%)
1 year ago
bout3fitty predicted Yes (H$500 at 52%)
1 year ago
neuronexmachina predicted Yes (H$20 at 53%)

Comments (8)

  1 randburg
Is this a question or a statement...?
posted 1 year ago
Theres a question mark on the end so im guessing its a question.
posted 1 year ago
Very interesting question. I created a copycat question for Barack Obama: http://www.hubdub.com/m18123/If_Barack_Obama_is_elected_president_will_David_Petraeus_be_made_Secretary_of_Defense
posted 1 year ago
Should the question creator push back the settlement date? For the Obama question I pushed it back to the inauguration date.
posted 1 year ago
@neuron - This is what we consider an event driven question, so the suspend date can be pushed back indefinitely until the SecDef nominee is named.
posted 1 year ago
This would break current law, as it is on the books today. It clearly states "A person may not be appointed as Secretary of Defense within 10 years after relief from active duty as a commissioned officer of a regular component of an armed force." (Title 10, § 113)
posted 1 year ago
@notablenotices: I personally doubt this is likely, but apparently Congress can pass a special congressional waiver to allow Marshall to serve:

http://www.defenselink.mil/specials/secdef_histories/bios/marshall.htm

"Marshall's appointment as secretary of defense required a special congressional waiver because the National Security Act prohibited a commissioned military officer on active duty within the previous 10 years from holding the post. Although the Senate approved quickly, questions did surface about a military leader holding a position clearly intended for a civilian. With the Johnson-Acheson competition in mind, some senators queried Marshall about his views on State-Defense relationships and service unification. Marshall noted that he had "suffered from the lack of unification throughout the war" and also that he had initiated several Army unification studies during the war period."
posted 1 year ago
@neuron - Although they fudged 5 years to 10 for Marshall, Petraeus is still serving in the military and that would be a huge fudge. This is supposed to be a civilian position and although Hayden is coming to mind, this seems well outside of probable action to me. I'd suggest both of these markets be voided (sorry about your void rate, its impressive!) and resubmitted with drastically lower odds. There is some interesting speculation on other websites about other candidates for the job as well.
posted 1 year ago

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