
Will Barack Obama win a landslide victory (at least 2/3 of electoral college votes)?
364. Includes all 50 states. North Carolina was last called by NBC and AP for Obama.
Background:>
There is no fixed definition of "landslide victory", but a reasonable one might be to get at least 2/3 (359 or more) of the 538 available electoral college votes. That's in keeping with the electoral college margin Clinton beat Bush Sr. by in 1992. That's what will count as a landslide victory for this question.
But it is not only the players of Hubdub that are leaning towards the possibility that this election may not be at all as close as recent media stories have suggested it will be. People wondering just how far he'll go include:
His campaign team,
Charles Krauthammer,
libertarian Lew Rockwell,
moderate blog Donkelephant,
newspapers from liberal hotbeds like San Diego(?),
high school students in Jersey City, NJ,
(but not the third-graders in Brownsdale, Minnesota,)
and Washington correspondents for national papers from the neighbours in the frozen North.
So, what do you think? Will Obama get 359 or more electoral college votes on November 4th?
(Initial likelihood is 33%. As a point of comparison, PollyElectoralVote at forecastingprinciples.com which combines various other forecasts is currently (Oct 3) at Obama 330.66 McCain 207.34. At the same time, inTrade is showing Obama 336 McCain 200.)
Settlement details:As reported post-election based on official figures by a mainstream news site. (This might be delayed due to recounts, court challenges, etc., unless the total of 359 is met excluding such delays, or impossible to meet even should all such challenges be in Obama's favor.)
- Activity: H$301,738 |
- Predictions: 696 |
Comments: 49
Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 11pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:02pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 11pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 33%
Action history:
Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 11pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:02pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 11pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details
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Comments (49)
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Obama is rubbing Mccain's face in it with an adbuy in Arizona today. Basically, Obama has the election locked up and has money to burn.
ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...
"McCain is in a good position to win every red state," Black said. "Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa."
http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2008/11/02/mccain-camp-things-are-getting-tight/
I'm confident that you will understand that those of us in the country that have different visions for the country than you do will remain vigorous in defense of these ideals.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081106/ap_on_el_pr/president_north_carolina_1
...a bit more schadenfreude and unbridled glee is definitely on the docket. http://tinyurl.com/5qdnq6
WOOT WOOT!
Canada: Liberal
UK: Liberal
Mexico: Liberal
France: Liberal
China: Communism=socialism=Liberal
America was supposed to be a stronghold of conservativism! Thats what our founding fathers wanted! (small government, no gun control) What went wrong?
Please deelilley dont get started on this again, Bush is a great man who has a record of honesty, a record of integrity, and has stood up for this country time and time again. Obama got elected to senate then six months later decided he was going to take the election away from a hard working, honest, war veteran, and run for president! This is a time of mourning not celebreation.
And Gun control? When the constitution was written, the deadliest guns you could buy cheaply could kill maybe 3-4 people an hour, at best. Now, if there were no restrictions, there are guns availble you could take down to the mall and kill 100's of people per hour with.
I don't mind a certain amount of gun control for pubic safety, as long as the guns with kill rates comparable to those widely available at the time the constitution was signed. I don't mean to be so morbid, but that's what you are looking at with no gun control at all.
As for the world being liberal? Eh, quality of life tends to be higher in countries that have embraced liberalism. There are exceptions to the rule, but it tends to indicate that liberalism, and some degree of socialism, doesn't hurt the world too badly.
I used to be strictly conservative, But now consider myself libretarian, but not as wildly agaisnt liberalism as I used to be. Goverenment should be smaller, but It's not the end of the world if it gets larger.
PS: Bob Barr got his ass handed to him. By Ralph Nader
what you say tocm is spot on
Then we would have to go back to what it meant in 1776 to say every man is created equal..... and that would be a tragedy.
@theonecalledmichael
I agree with some of your feelings on small businesses, but I would say don't forget that people vote with their dollars. Places like walmart can offer lower prices and save the consumer money because they have been entrusted with the consumer's dollars. When governments bring businesses down, it is in disagreement with the people, despite what they say. It is important for people to understand that they have power of their own and with it comes responsibility and choices.
Taking away responsibility just means less freedoms and will continue the trend of irresponsible citizens that expect more and more from their make-believe government.
Still, I understand your views more now than I have before and I have to say I can definitely see where you are coming from.
diesel was talking about financial strong. i mentioned Australia and as to your comment about we made you, that's a insult. we made ourselves .( Besides, if we have to suffer your coming down with us! We made that country and i think if we are suffering you should suffer as well) your statement in part.
get of the grass and get a life.
tell me and excuse my Ozzie ignorance what is IMHO please.
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