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Will Barack Obama win a landslide victory (at least 2/3 of electoral college votes)?

Settled as Yes

364. Includes all 50 states. North Carolina was last called by NBC and AP for Obama.

Background:

Background: As I write this, the Hubdub electoral college map is showing Obama 353 McCain 163 Tossup 22. That's getting into landslide territory.

There is no fixed definition of "landslide victory", but a reasonable one might be to get at least 2/3 (359 or more) of the 538 available electoral college votes. That's in keeping with the electoral college margin Clinton beat Bush Sr. by in 1992. That's what will count as a landslide victory for this question.

But it is not only the players of Hubdub that are leaning towards the possibility that this election may not be at all as close as recent media stories have suggested it will be. People wondering just how far he'll go include:

His campaign team,
Charles Krauthammer,
libertarian Lew Rockwell,
moderate blog Donkelephant,
newspapers from liberal hotbeds like San Diego(?),
high school students in Jersey City, NJ,
(but not the third-graders in Brownsdale, Minnesota,)
and Washington correspondents for national papers from the neighbours in the frozen North.

So, what do you think? Will Obama get 359 or more electoral college votes on November 4th?
(Initial likelihood is 33%. As a point of comparison, PollyElectoralVote at forecastingprinciples.com which combines various other forecasts is currently (Oct 3) at Obama 330.66 McCain 207.34. At the same time, inTrade is showing Obama 336 McCain 200.)

Settlement details:As reported post-election based on official figures by a mainstream news site. (This might be delayed due to recounts, court challenges, etc., unless the total of 359 is met excluding such delays, or impossible to meet even should all such challenges be in Obama's favor.)

 
Forecast history %
Yes
77%
No
23%
Settled as Yes on Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:02pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 11pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:02pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 11pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 33%

Action history:

Created Sat 4th Oct 2008 12am PST by infernalmachine[Power User]
Changed Suspend date Sat 1st Nov 2008 9:34am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 14:00:00"
Changed Suspend date Tue 4th Nov 2008 6:42am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 16:00:00"
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2008 8:41pm PST by destry[Admin]: Suspended pending results.
Settlement requested Thu 6th Nov 2008 9:55am PST by slaneyblack: AP has called North Carolina for Obama, making it 364...
Settlement requested Thu 6th Nov 2008 1:04pm PST by coolkraft: 364 electoral votes for Obama
Settled as 'Yes' Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:02pm PST by destry[Admin]: 364. Includes all 50 states. North Carolina was last called by NBC and AP for Obama.

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 11pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:02pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 11pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (696)

1 year ago
jsevigny predicted Yes (H$300 at 76%)
1 year ago
armchainmstenw predicted Yes (H$48 at 76%)
1 year ago
widescreen predicted Yes (H$2,000 at 74%)
1 year ago
infernalmachine[Power User] predicted No (H$177 at 24%)
1 year ago
weirdbro predicted Yes (H$100 at 77%)

Comments (49)

  1 thetexas
I agree, it's not close. McCain will have more then 2/3rds of the electoral votes when America rejects the rookie anti-American Senator.
posted 1 year ago
@texas - feel free to put your h$ where your mouth is, because I'd love to get some better odds on Obama!
posted 1 year ago
  3 coolkraft
Go Jenni ... I even bet a few bucks on Obama winning Texas the odds are so good.. Obama is going to run over McCain like a baserunner at home plate.
posted 1 year ago
I'm betting that Obama will win the World Series too.
posted 1 year ago
Yeah right. I am willing to bet every penny i got onto no.
posted 1 year ago
  6 measure
There's a decent shot at this. If there is a landslide, it will be Obama.

Obama is rubbing Mccain's face in it with an adbuy in Arizona today. Basically, Obama has the election locked up and has money to burn.
posted 1 year ago
I saw this on Drudge:

ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...
posted 1 year ago
Here's Nate Silver's response to Drudge: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/trick-or-treat.html
posted 1 year ago
From TIME / CNN blogs:

"McCain is in a good position to win every red state," Black said. "Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa."

http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2008/11/02/mccain-camp-things-are-getting-tight/
posted 1 year ago
I guess **McCain adviser** Charlie Black was completely wrong about Pennsylvania and Iowa.
posted 1 year ago
Ok, ok he won. Lets just drop this and forget it ever happened. Agreed?
posted 1 year ago
  12 coolkraft
A landslide for president elect Obama..what an accomplishment for this amazing man.
posted 1 year ago
  13 dieseldog
CONGRAULATIONS TO MR OBAMA AND ALL HIS SUPPORTERS
posted 1 year ago
  14 jchiang
Does this market include postal and absentee votes? I assume so because they are not explictly excluded?
posted 1 year ago
its electoral, not popular
posted 1 year ago
Congratulations Senator Obama to you, your family and your team.

I'm confident that you will understand that those of us in the country that have different visions for the country than you do will remain vigorous in defense of these ideals.
posted 1 year ago
  17 faisal
Amusingly, even Fox News is calling it a lanslide: http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Nov05/0,4670,ObamaLandslide,00.html ... but it looks unlikely that it will hit the numbers above.
posted 1 year ago
  18 jsevigny
Let's drop this and forget it ever happened, but first, let's settle the question, eh?
posted 1 year ago
  19 measure
Man, I tied up a bunch of money predicting this would be settled "yes". And it appears it will be... but I can't find a major news source that is calling North Carolina for Obama, and it may not happen for over a week... http://www.wnct.com/nct/news/politics/article/which_presidential_candidate_won_north_carolina_no_official_results_yet/22921/
posted 1 year ago
I agree jsevigny. Especially because we lost. Never mention this again!
posted 1 year ago
  21 fatodubs
I just read that North Carolina is being called for Obama, which gives him over 358. Here's the story:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081106/ap_on_el_pr/president_north_carolina_1
posted 1 year ago
  22 coolkraft
final count 364 electoral votes for Obama.
posted 1 year ago
Dang! I picked "Yes" but pulled out at 8PM on Tuesday. Could have had a $7K gain. Settled for $1000.
posted 1 year ago
  24 jchiang
WOOT for Obama! Yes We Can (win a landslide)
posted 1 year ago
..... did you not hear what your communist leader (jsevigny) said? Lets never mention this again!
posted 1 year ago
  26 deelilley
Hey dragon, after 8 years of BushCo's lethal BS
...a bit more schadenfreude and unbridled glee is definitely on the docket. http://tinyurl.com/5qdnq6

WOOT WOOT!
posted 1 year ago
Is there a single country in the world where conservetives rule? If so im moving there!
Canada: Liberal
UK: Liberal
Mexico: Liberal
France: Liberal
China: Communism=socialism=Liberal
America was supposed to be a stronghold of conservativism! Thats what our founding fathers wanted! (small government, no gun control) What went wrong?

Please deelilley dont get started on this again, Bush is a great man who has a record of honesty, a record of integrity, and has stood up for this country time and time again. Obama got elected to senate then six months later decided he was going to take the election away from a hard working, honest, war veteran, and run for president! This is a time of mourning not celebreation.
posted 1 year ago
  28 measure
Dragon, no worries, we got through the Clinton Years pretty well... though I hope Obama doesn't just sit on the open conflicts like Clinton did with Iraq and just do nothing about them...

And Gun control? When the constitution was written, the deadliest guns you could buy cheaply could kill maybe 3-4 people an hour, at best. Now, if there were no restrictions, there are guns availble you could take down to the mall and kill 100's of people per hour with.

I don't mind a certain amount of gun control for pubic safety, as long as the guns with kill rates comparable to those widely available at the time the constitution was signed. I don't mean to be so morbid, but that's what you are looking at with no gun control at all.

As for the world being liberal? Eh, quality of life tends to be higher in countries that have embraced liberalism. There are exceptions to the rule, but it tends to indicate that liberalism, and some degree of socialism, doesn't hurt the world too badly.

I used to be strictly conservative, But now consider myself libretarian, but not as wildly agaisnt liberalism as I used to be. Goverenment should be smaller, but It's not the end of the world if it gets larger.
posted 1 year ago
  29 measure
Edit to my comment above: I want guns with similar kill rates to those available at the time the constitution was drafted to be available today.
posted 1 year ago
Your right, Obama only has 4 years. He wont be able to do that much. As for guns, Guns are a gaurenteed right given to us by our forefathers. I realize that guns were less effective back then but they still had the capacity to kill. Our forefathers knew that by allowing us to have guns they would be opening a door for a few crimes but they accepted that and allowed us to have it as a personal protection against government and criminals. Besides, its very hard for criminals to get there hands on a gun. For one thing there are mandatory background checks whenever you buy a gun! I think the danger of somene taking one and killing hundreds of people an hour is minimal.
PS: Bob Barr got his ass handed to him. By Ralph Nader
posted 1 year ago
I agree with both of you, except for the part about socialism......it works in europe and canada, but it is not what we believe in, and would be very bad for us.... I might be extremely liberal, but not socialist, in any way....I just think that we have lost the spirit of mercantilism....the idea that everyone should be able to own their business....i think big business is akin to socialism.....when we let a few very powerful and wealthy, provide for a great many poor people (or middle class, as the republicans put it),,,, we should make it harder for monopolies to squeeze out the little guy....like walmart, home depot, office depot, chase and citigroup, starbucks, walgreens and cvs, cosco, etc..... small business should be our focus...on both sides of the aisle.....
posted 1 year ago
  32 dieseldog
is europe and canada finically strong? i'm just asking. i thought both places was cutting back on govt programs to avoid going broke. the bigger the govt the more money they take to run it. the usa govt can't give seniors and the disabled health insurance without going bankrupt. how anybody thinks they can give it to all people is beyond me.
posted 1 year ago
Also tocm, walmart, costco, starbucks, the only reasons these companies do so well is because they are successful. If americans want these chains to be successful they become successful. Not allowing these companies to succeed and propser is bascially punishing a company because the american people chose it and frankly that doesnt seem right to me.
posted 1 year ago
  34 curios
hey Australia is financially strong but you are trying to drag us down with you.
what you say tocm is spot on
posted 1 year ago
I dont think he mentioned australia. Besides, if we have to suffer your coming down with us! We made that country and i think if we are suffering you should suffer as well!
posted 1 year ago
  36 jsevigny
Let's go for an even stricter Constitutional interpretation of the right to bear arms: only weapons that were manufactured in or before 1776 are legal. Everything else falls outside a strict reading of the amendment.
posted 1 year ago
...as I've said before, we can ration bullets, and let them have as many guns as they want....maybe they can have sword fights with rifles when they run out of bullets...
posted 1 year ago
@jsevigny....

Then we would have to go back to what it meant in 1776 to say every man is created equal..... and that would be a tragedy.


@theonecalledmichael

I agree with some of your feelings on small businesses, but I would say don't forget that people vote with their dollars. Places like walmart can offer lower prices and save the consumer money because they have been entrusted with the consumer's dollars. When governments bring businesses down, it is in disagreement with the people, despite what they say. It is important for people to understand that they have power of their own and with it comes responsibility and choices.

Taking away responsibility just means less freedoms and will continue the trend of irresponsible citizens that expect more and more from their make-believe government.

Still, I understand your views more now than I have before and I have to say I can definitely see where you are coming from.
posted 1 year ago
  39 curios
Hey dragon
diesel was talking about financial strong. i mentioned Australia and as to your comment about we made you, that's a insult. we made ourselves .( Besides, if we have to suffer your coming down with us! We made that country and i think if we are suffering you should suffer as well) your statement in part.
get of the grass and get a life.
posted 1 year ago
  40 dieseldog
tocm - restricting bullets won't do nothing. it's to easy to make bullets-ammo. lot's of people make their own..much cheaper than buying them. GUNS DON'T KILL PEOPLE..PEOPLE KILL PEOPLE. it's a morality problem not a gun problem. theres more people who own guns that don't kill people than vice versa.
posted 1 year ago
Hey, i agree....i'm from louisiana.... but how many thugs really take the time to make bullets....
posted 1 year ago
Curious: Maybe im horribly wrong but if i remember correctly, australia was where britain sent there criminals and then as the british empire fell they just recalled there troops.
posted 1 year ago
  43 dieseldog
i doubt very many thugs make bullets. if the govt was to restrict bullets the thugs would start making them, or buy or steal them on the black market. imho the same place they get their guns. one of the problem i have with the govt trying to restrict guns is..whats next? knifes, ball bats, billy clubs, etc. imho it's a morality problem not a gun problem
posted 1 year ago
Guns dont kill people. Democrats kill people.
posted 1 year ago
  45 dieseldog
rut roh dragon your gonna get in trouble for making such comments. :O)
posted 1 year ago
Well i was considering turning that into a abortian spin off but i figured it would probably be better if i just let that one be.
posted 1 year ago
  47 curios
hey chuckles perhaps you where?
tell me and excuse my Ozzie ignorance what is IMHO please.
posted 1 year ago
  48 dieseldog
curios - IMHO = IN MY HUMBLE OPINON. if dragon gets throwed in jail tonight call me. i'm bail him out. nite nite all.
posted 1 year ago
I thought it was in my honest opinion?
posted 1 year ago

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