Created Sat 4th Oct 2008 1:06pm PST by

Will the NDP and Liberal parties agree to form a coalition government?

Settled as No

The combined seats of the Liberals (76) and the NDP (37) sums to 113, far less than the 155 needed for majority and also less than the 143 the Conservatives have. So there is no way that the two parties could form a government as a coalition.
http://www.thestar.com/election

Background:

Background: Depending on how the vote turns out it is possible that the combined NDP and Liberal seats will be significantly more than the Conservative seats. Given the divided climate and hints from some leader (Layton, Rae) that nothing is off the table, will the NDP and Liberals come to some kind of agreement to form a coalition government?

Category Editor Clarification: Although this question may take a while to settle, based on the possible election results, it will suspend with all other election questions before the results are announced. If there is clearly confusion and delay in forming a government after the votes are counted, I will consider re-opening the question.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. To be settled 'yes' the parties do not have to form a formal, binding coalition but they do need to both publicly agree to govern together. I don't know the constitutional details of this. They may have to ask the Governer General to seat then instead of the minority winning conservatives. Some request of this kind is needed to settle yes, but the question will still be settled yes even if it is determined, by legal scholars etc, that the coalition should not be allowed. Simply, the coalition doesn't have to actually occur, but both parties need to agree they will form one. Initial odds, 10%. Settlement by end of October, may not happen immediately after the election.

Forecast history %

Yes

13%

87%

Settled as No on Thu 16th Oct 2008 8:55am PST

Activity: H$1,070
Predictions: 10
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 16th Oct 2008 8:55am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 10%

Action history:

Created Sat 4th Oct 2008 1:06pm PST by

ratel

Changed Description Sat 11th Oct 2008 8:47am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: show details

... to form a coalition government?? Category Editor Clarification: Although this question may take a while to settle, based on the possible election results, it will suspend with all other election questions before the results are announced. If there is clearly confusion and delay in forming a government after the votes are counted, I will consider re-opening the question.

Changed Suspend date Sat 11th Oct 2008 8:48am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: was: "2008-10-31 23:59:00"

Suspended Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Wed 15th Oct 2008 1:43am PST by

mork

: Not possible. Not enough combined seats.

Settled as 'No' Thu 16th Oct 2008 8:55am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: The combined seats of the Liberals (76) and the NDP (37) sums to 113, far less than the 155 needed for majority and also less than the 143 the Conservatives have. So there is no way that the two parties could form a government as a coalition.
http://www.thestar.com/election

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Predictions (10)

1 year ago

gumbloid Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

predicted No (H$100 at 87%)

1 year ago

ratel

predicted Yes (H$300 at 12%)

1 year ago

bency

predicted No (H$100 at 89%)

1 year ago

horsefeathers Level 12, Guru (H$34,268)

predicted Yes (H$20 at 11%)

1 year ago

zollernberg Level 9, Expert (H$8,674)

predicted No (H$100 at 89%)

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