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Will the stock market (DJIA) fall 20 percent?

Settled as Yes

Market dropped below 8000 briefly between 9:34 and 9:36 AM EDT on Friday, October 10

Suspension and Settlement time will be set at 9:35 AM EDT.

http://finance.aol.com/charts/dow-jones-industrial-average/%24indu/dji

Background:

Question created by
Background: The morning before the Dow sank below 10,000, CNBC's Jim Cramer warned stock owners with an investment horizon of five years or less to cash out. Cramer predicted a 20 percent fall for the Dow Jones Industrials. While he didn't say when it would reach its nadir, Cramer did say expect the next earnings season to be more dire than the one starting this week. With the market losing 3.6 percent by the close on Monday, do you think the bottom for the Dow is 20 percent from here - around 8,000?


Question will settle as a YES if the market drops below 8,000 any time before the settlement date
The market does not have to close below 8,000, just drop below it during a trading session.
Question will suspend on December 24, 2009 and be settled as of conditions up to December 31, 2009.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
95%
No
5%
Settled as Yes on Fri 10th Oct 2008 8:58am PST

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Fri 10th Oct 2008 8:58am PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Tue 7th Oct 2008 4:40am PST by reuters
Changed Question text Wed 8th Oct 2008 3:01am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: show details
... Will the marketstock market (DJIA) fall 20 percent?
Changed Suspend date Wed 8th Oct 2008 3:01am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-01-06 23:59:00"
Suspended Fri 10th Oct 2008 5:39am PST by infernalmachine[Power User]: went below 8000
Settlement requested Fri 10th Oct 2008 6:10am PST by cjg999: I don't know the best source, but from Google Finance (http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=INDEXDJX:.DJI) the low says "7,882.51" and the plot shows a dip to 7,957.77 at 9:38, like you said.

Is the exact time important?
Settled as 'Yes' Fri 10th Oct 2008 8:58am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Market dropped below 8000 briefly between 9:34 and 9:36 AM EDT on Friday, October 10

Suspension and Settlement time will be set at 9:35 AM EDT.

http://finance.aol.com/charts/dow-jones-industrial-average/%24indu/dji

Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Fri 10th Oct 2008 8:58am PST details

 

Predictions (76)

1 year ago
kgholderman predicted Yes (H$20 at 88%)
1 year ago
chrisfmasse predicted Yes (H$1 at 88%)
1 year ago
bigken1 predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 79%)
1 year ago
infernalmachine[Power User] predicted Yes (H$1,100 at 77%)
1 year ago
cookietime predicted Yes (H$100 at 74%)

Comments (22)

  1 reuters
To clarify, this question will settle as "yes" if the Dow at any point falls to 8,000 during the life of this market.
posted 1 year ago
  2 curios
that's OK but which year not mentioned 2008 or 2009 and it is set to suspend in 1 year
posted 1 year ago
  3 randburg
If you predict YES, you get a pay out any time the market first hits 8000. If you predict NO, you must wait A YEAR to see what happens! Makes no sense to predict "no", which totally slants this market.

Was this really written by an unbiased news agency? IMHO, lousy question...
posted 1 year ago
  4 curios
this one makes no sense at all. should not be allowed see request 2
posted 1 year ago
  5 mork[Power User]
The questions asks if the dow will drop below 8000 before 2010. What's the problem?
posted 1 year ago
  6 kruijs[Power User]
@curios

read comment #1, last five words.
that's the answer to your question from comment #2
posted 1 year ago
  7 curios
that's easy to answer since my first comment it was clarified . i took this your comment from the dashboard i was actually answering randburg before you put in your two penny worth. i suggest you look at things in order? it is not worthy of a wager i cashed mine in 2hrs ago and 19 hrs
posted 1 year ago
  8 kruijs[Power User]
randburg might be right in stating this question being lame.

I wouldn't predict "no" neither. But hey, the guys at reuters are humans too after all. They have to learn what makes the difference just like anyone else of us here.

Just because of the market being not very attractive it not a reason to void it right away.
posted 1 year ago
  9 chuck
I'm really hoping that this one will take a while.
posted 1 year ago
  10 cjg999
So who's going to set up the next bar? And where should it be set? 7000? 6000?
posted 1 year ago
Can someone with a good source please submit a settlement request with the exact time when it went below 8000 (it's somewhere between 9:36 and 9:38 am)
posted 1 year ago
Certain people are betting large amounts after the result is known on questions like these. You know who you are. You really should know better.
posted 1 year ago
  13 cjg999
I don't know the best source, but from Google Finance (http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=INDEXDJX:.DJI) the low says "7,882.51" and the plot shows a dip to 7,957.77 at 9:38, like you said.

Is the exact time important?
posted 1 year ago
  14 cjg999
(I just copied the above to the "Request Settlement.")
posted 1 year ago
  15 chuck
That was NOT below 8000 from what I'm looking at!!

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI
posted 1 year ago
  16 chuck
Actually if you look at the low it is below 8000, something fishy is going on.
posted 1 year ago
  17 chuck
@cjg999 and others

Look at the plot again...
posted 1 year ago
  18 cjg999
It still looks the same to me and the "Low" in the stats above the plot still says, "7,882.51."

What are you seeing?
posted 1 year ago
  19 bayoubear[Admin]
According to this site:
http://finance.aol.com/charts/dow-jones-industrial-average/%24indu/dji
these are the times surrounding the drop below 8000
9:34 8117.71
9:36 7895.97
9:38 8087.76


Looks to me as if we should set the suspension and settlement time as 9:35 AM EDT

More comments?
posted 1 year ago
  20 cjg999
Ahh, I see why the time is important (duh). Yeah, I'd say 9:35 is a safe time unless there's a better source out there. But I say if someone profited by getting a bet in the 30 seconds or so between the actual dip and 9:35, then so be it.
posted 1 year ago
  21 chuck
My apologies, I was zoomed out on my graph and the dip didn't go below 8000, but then I zoomed in and it did. I'm a dufus. Carry on...
posted 1 year ago
  22 bayoubear[Admin]
The Google finance chart http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI has it listed at 7957.77 at 9:38 AM EDT

any other times??
posted 1 year ago

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