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Created Tue 7th Oct 2008 1:30pm PST by ianochaye

At what time (EST) on November 4/5 will CNN call the Presidential Election winner?

Settled as 11pm - Midnight Nov 4

AT exactly 11pm EST CNN has projected Barack Obama the next President of the United States of America.

Background:

Background: On the evening of November 4 or morning of November 5 CNN will call the election for one candidate or the other. Irrespective of who the winner is what time do you think CNN will first make that call?

Settlement details:As called by CNN.
The timing is set as soon as the pronouncemtn starts.
Each hour starts at 1 second after the hour and ends exactly on the next hour (e.g 8.00.01pm to 9.00.00pm)

 
Forecast history %
Before 7pm Nov 4
0%
7pm - 8pm Nov 4
0%
8pm - 9pm Nov 4
0%
9pm - 10pm Nov 4
0%
10pm - 11pm Nov 4
2%
11pm - Midnight Nov 4
93%
Midnight - 1am Nov 5
4%
1am - 2am Nov 5
1%
2am - 3am Nov 5
0%
After 3am Nov 5
0%
Settled as 11pm - Midnight Nov 4 on Tue 4th Nov 2008 8:02pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 8:02pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 7:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Before 7pm Nov 4: 5%, 7pm - 8pm Nov 4: 10%, 8pm - 9pm Nov 4: 15%, 9pm - 10pm Nov 4: 15%, 10pm - 11pm Nov 4: 15%, 11pm - Midnight Nov 4: 10%, Midnight - 1am Nov 5: 10%, 1am - 2am Nov 5: 10%, 2am - 3am Nov 5: 5%, After 3am Nov 5: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 7th Oct 2008 1:30pm PST by ianochaye
Changed Question text Thu 9th Oct 2008 6:09am PST by tomg[Admin]: ... call the Presidential Election winner.?
Changed Settlement info Thu 9th Oct 2008 6:09am PST by tomg[Admin]: show details
... soon as the pronouncemtn starts. <.<br/> Each hour starts at
Changed Settlement info Wed 22nd Oct 2008 1:45pm PST by destry[Admin]: show details
... soon as the pronouncemtn starts.<. <br/> Each hour starts at
Suspended Mon 3rd Nov 2008 9:05pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Tue 4th Nov 2008 5:12am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: was: "2008-11-03 21:05:00"
Unsuspended Tue 4th Nov 2008 5:12am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]
Changed Settlement info Tue 4th Nov 2008 5:12am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... soon as the pronouncemtn starts. <.<br/> Each hour starts at
Changed Suspend date Tue 4th Nov 2008 10:44am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 16:00:00"
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2008 7:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2008 8pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2008 8pm PST by destry[Admin]
Settled as '11pm - Midnight Nov 4' Tue 4th Nov 2008 8:02pm PST by destry[Admin]: AT exactly 11pm EST CNN has projected Barack Obama the next President of the United States of America.

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 8:02pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 7:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (462)

1 year ago
destry[Admin] predicted 11pm - Midnight Nov 4 (H$3,737 at 87%)
1 year ago
ally1219 predicted 11pm - Midnight Nov 4 (H$20 at 82%)
1 year ago
iliketowin predicted 1am - 2am Nov 5 (H$100 at 3%)
1 year ago
obadwolfo predicted 10pm - 11pm Nov 4 (H$10 at 5%)
1 year ago
dragon01 predicted 11pm - Midnight Nov 4 (H$20 at 85%)

Comments (13)

  1 jenniandboys[Admin]
Hey great question! I was just thinking about writing it when I ran across it.
posted 1 year ago
  2 raidersin09
Are these times based on Pacific Std. Time?
posted 1 year ago
  3 jenniandboys[Admin]
@raiders - Eastern (its in the title.. but don't feel bad I missed it at first too)
posted 1 year ago
  4 raidersin09
ahh, so it is. another D'oh moment. it's been a long day.
posted 1 year ago
  5 buckeyetom
Sometimes CNN does not like to call an election early because it affects voter turnout at the polls, especially in the Pacific Time Zones. Are they going to wait while Hawaii finishes voting? If CNN waits, then the earliest they will announce is 11/5 at 2AM. If the electoral votes indicate a "Slam Dunk" for one of the candidates then I suppose it could be earlier. Considering that analysis, what in your opinion signals the "Official Call?" We all know CNN is going to give tons of opinions during the evening.
posted 1 year ago
  6 destry[Admin]
CNN did a good job in the primaries of making it very well known when they were officially calling a state, and I expect the same thing for the election. This market will be settled based on the time that CNN announces they are calling the race for one of the candidates.
posted 1 year ago
  7 neuronexmachina
> Sometimes CNN does not like to call an election early because it affects voter turnout at the polls, especially in the Pacific Time Zones.

Unless of course one of the candidates concedes first.

Actually, anyone want to create a similar question for when the concession announcement will occur?
posted 1 year ago
  8 dieseldog
ianochaye - welcome to HD. nice to see you jump right in creating questions. goodluck.
posted 1 year ago
  9 swilson
ianochaye - Great question!
posted 1 year ago
  10 buckeyetom
I now think 270+ is going to come earlier than first expected.
posted 1 year ago
  11 robamichael
obama got PA

could be a short night
posted 1 year ago
  12 jenniandboys[Admin]
That would be nice.. I'm not much of a night person anymore!
posted 1 year ago
  13 dragonfangxl
Well on the bright side at least this election is over. Personally after people realize that Obama has had as much experience as a leader as my dog has of being a computer designer and joe biden is going to be our representitive. All those dumb things hes managed to say in the past 4 months? Times that by a hundred, put it in front of every leader, citizen, and camera crew in the world and that is the humiliation we are going to be forced to stomach these next 4 years.
posted 1 year ago

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