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Who will be the next Bundeskanzler in 2009?

Current forecast: Angela Merkel (62% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Angela Merkel with a probability of 62% (unchanged in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Guido Westerwelle
5%
Frank-Walter Steinmeier
23%
Angela Merkel
62%
any other
10%
Activity: H$6,354
Question suspends in 44 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 2nd Oct 2009 12:59am PDT (44 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Guido Westerwelle: 10%, Frank-Walter Steinmeier: 40%, Angela Merkel: 40%, any other: 10%

Action history:

Suspend date: Fri 2nd Oct 2009 12:59am PDT (44 weeks to go)
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Predictions (23)

23 predictions

3 days ago
fooobart predicted Angela Merkel (H$40 at 62%)
4 days ago
claudiaz predicted Angela Merkel (H$100 at 61%)
4 days ago
drachenstein predicted Angela Merkel (H$20 at 61%)
5 days ago
monsti88 predicted Angela Merkel (H$50 at 60%)
5 days ago
syrus predicted Angela Merkel (H$50 at 60%)
more

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