Net worth: H$1,000
Guest:Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's virtual currency, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
Forums
PoliticsSportEntertainmentWorldBusinessTechnologyScienceGeneral

Will central banks co-ordinate a second global rate cut in 2008?

Settled as No

A coordinated global rate cut such as occurred on Oct. 8 did not happen again in 2008.

Background:

Question created by
Background: Central banks around the world cut interest rates in unison on Oct. 8 in a joint response to the global financial crisis. Will they repeat their action before the end of the year?

This past Wednesday....
"Central banks around the world cut interest rates in unison on Wednesday but the unprecedented move failed to help battered stocks, thaw credit markets or temper forecasts for a sharp global economic downturn."
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE49542Y20081008

Settlement details:As reported by <a href="http://www.reuters.com">www.reuters.com<;/a>

 
Forecast history %
Yes
15%
No
85%
Settled as No on Fri 2nd Jan 5:03am PST

Suspend date: Sun 21st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 2nd Jan 5:03am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 21st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Wed 8th Oct 2008 5:14am PST by reuters
Suspended Thu 4th Dec 2008 5:18am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: pending details from news announcment
Unsuspended Thu 4th Dec 2008 6:37am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: The moves by several banks were not a coordinated effort, so the question is reopened
Suspended Sun 21st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 1st Jan 10:42am PST by elly: No
Settled as 'No' Fri 2nd Jan 5:03am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: A coordinated global rate cut such as occurred on Oct. 8 did not happen again in 2008.

Suspend date: Sun 21st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 2nd Jan 5:03am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 21st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (31)

48 weeks ago
dauckland predicted No (H$1,501 at 77%)
48 weeks ago
drzinternet predicted No (H$1,500 at 75%)
48 weeks ago
drzinternet predicted No (H$1,800 at 73%)
48 weeks ago
drzinternet predicted No (H$1,550 at 71%)
48 weeks ago
drzinternet predicted No (H$1,900 at 68%)

Comments (6)

  1 nicfulton
This happened today, right? Or perhaps there is a some subtlety in the word "co-ordinate".
posted 50 weeks ago
  2 bayoubear[Admin]
At this point there doesn't seem to be a co-ordinated effort, since the Central Banks are not doing it all at the same time, and it's not clear if all will act, and to what degree they will act. There may be news reports on Thursday that might settle this issue.

Here's a statment from a news article:
The Bank of Thailand slashed its main interest rate for the first time in 16 months to help an economy hit both by the global crisis and political unrest, cutting 100 basis points to 2.75 percent. Australia cut rates on Tuesday and the euro zone, Britain, Sweden and New Zealand all make decisions on Thursday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE4AL2C720081203

At this time I'm leaving the question open, but may suspend or settle based on developments in the near future....
posted 50 weeks ago
  3 nicfulton
OK - seems fair.
posted 50 weeks ago
  4 bayoubear[Admin]
Several banking institutions have announced rate cuts this morning...including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Sweden. All three of these cut their rates, but by different amounts. Does this constitute a 'coordinated' second global rate cut folowing cuts by Australia and Thailand earlier this week?

If it does, the question can be settled as yes...if not, the question should probably be settled as no.
posted 50 weeks ago
  5 bayoubear[Admin]
Question is reopened since it requires a co-ordinated effort by banks globally. This would not be having different banks at different times cut rates by different amounts. It would require a statement referring to a global move, such as occured earlier in October. This has not yet occurred.
posted 50 weeks ago
  6 nicfulton
OK - so the definition of this question is a little ambiguous. Do we require at least one central bank to call it coordinated, or perhaps a reporter to call it coordinated? There have been worldwide lowering of rates in two days. Either this is coordinated, or simply a very very low probability chance (at which point my bet would have been different). Just because one banker doesn't call it coordinated, doesn't mean that one bank didn't follow another... Last time I drove a car, I coordinated on the road and in reference to other cars. If there's a traffic jam, it's not that everyone decided to slow down, but it sure certainly OUGHT to be coordinated otherwise everyone will be colliding ;-)
posted 50 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

Stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real news stories! Win more if you're right and climb the leaderboards Learn more...

Name
Email
New password
By joining you are agreeing to our terms of service

Related News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags


score: 10
US set to halve rates, China may act too

New York/Singapore - The US Federal Reserve looks set to halve interest rates close to zero on Tuesday and China signalled it may cut its rates again in a global drive to contain the worst financial

score: 10
Fed set to halve rates; Japan, China may act too

New York/Singapore - The US Federal Reserve looks set to halve interest rates close to zero on Tuesday and China signalled it may cut its rates again in a global drive to contain the worst financial

score: 10
Fed set to halve rates

NEW YORK/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve looks set to halve interest rates close to zero on Tuesday and China signalled it may cut its rates again in a global drive to contain the worst financial

score: 10
TOPWRAP 1-Fed set to halve rates; Japan, China may act too

weaker dollar (For full crisis coverage, double click on) NEW YORK/SINGAPORE, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve looks set to halve interest rates close to zero on Tuesday and China signalled it may cut its rates again in a global drive to

score: 10
Bank rates head to zero

HOW LOW CAN THEY GO? Benchmark interest rates in selected countries. 4.25% Australia 3% Britain 2.25% Canada 2.5% European Central Bank 0.3% Japan 1% Switzerland 3.75% Sweden 1% U.S. As the